Let’s Talk About the House

Democrats are defending a slim majority of five seats.  The House is a different animal than the Senate, where the fight is concentrated mostly in the battleground states.  It’s a difficult win because of redistricting, and a tendency for the opposition party to win back seats in the midterms.  Read 538’s “2022 election forecast”  

The Brennan Center for Justice examines the new maps and notes “Under new Congressional maps, both Demo­crats and Repub­lic­ans have viable paths to a House major­ity in coming years.”  Here’s what they conclude about Democrats chances: 

“In sum, the good news for Demo­crats is that they can secure a House major­ity simply by winning the 227 districts in new maps that Biden carried in 2020. And even if they lose some of those districts, they have an altern­at­ive path to a major­ity in the 30 newly configured districts that Trump won by relat­ively narrow margins in that elec­tion, many of which are in suburbs that have been stead­ily trend­ing toward the party. But while Demo­crats poten­tially have more paths to a major­ity, they have little room for error. It would take only a small shift to put many districts that Biden narrowly won out of reach for House Demo­crats. Conversely, because compet­it­ive Trump districts are at the edge of being noncom­pet­it­ive, they would need a much greater shift to put them in play.”

The media is starting to acknowledge a growing Democratic enthusiasm for the midterms.  Although the talking heads are unaware of all our volunteer’s hard work, activist leaders, such as Ezra Levin (Co-Founder of Indivisible) see the energy throughout the nation.  We can’t win if we don’t fight.  And so we fight on! 

Breaking News: Peltola beats Palin, wins Alaska House special election Executive Director of Voters of Tomorrow Santiago Mayer pointed out that the last time a Democrat sat in Alaska’s House seat was the same year the Supreme Court decided Roe v. Wade. “If that’s not a…sign,” he tweeted, “I don’t know what is.”

Washington Post:  Democrats see the once unthinkable: A narrow path to keeping the House  

New York Times:  Democrats might get exceptionally lucky this Fall  

New York Times:  Growing Evidence Against a Red Wave

So we resort to reading the tea leaves – What are Voters thinking?

Politico talks about Latino Voters

19th News talks about Women Voters 

The Conversation talks about Younger Voters

Washington Post talks about Young Progressive Voters