Updated 9/4/22 to include Ohio. In general, the media narrative has changed to reflect Democratic momentum. Biden’s approval rate has increased to 44% after passing the Inflation Reduction Act and Student Loan Forgiveness Plan. The stripping of women’s bodily autonomy by a rogue SCOTUS has galvanized women to register and get ready to vote in #ROEvember. Mitch McConnell blamed it on the quality of Trump-promoted candidates.
What they don’t mention, and I want to acknowledge here, is all the hard work that volunteers have put in this year. Your voter contact is working and now that more and more people are tuning in, we need to keep up and push through to November 8.
Let’s look at each of TP2B’s states:
AZ-Mark Kelly– Cook Political rates this race as a “toss-up” 538’s updated poll average showes Kelly ahead by 7 points. HIs opponent Masters is a former libertarian, who was too much of a disruptor even for Steven Bannon. The GOP has slashed spending in AZ. Category: Let’s Bring this Home!
FL-Val Demings– Cook Political rates this race as “Lean R” Demings, while ahead in fundraising, she is behind about 6 points in the polls. Her opponent, incumbent Marco Rubio, benefits from DeSantis’s radical authoritarianism, attacking LGTBQ, banning books and driving teachers out. Many Floridians are still in the thrall of Trump, who has endorsed Rubio. Category: A gambler’s dream.
GA-Raphael Warnock– Cook Political rates this race as a “toss-up” and 538’s updated poll shows Warnock one point ahead. Trump endorsed Walker is a retired football player who has a lot of personal baggage, trouble speaking cogently, and is avoiding debating Warnock. A wrinkle: In GA, you must get a majority and a third candidate may prevent that from happening, causing a run-off in December. Category: Let’s put the effort in NOW to prevent a runoff!
NC-Cheri Beasley– Cook Political has rated this race as “Lean R” 538’s updated poll average, states that she is tied with Ted Budd, a current GOP US Rep for NC. Beasley, a former state Supreme Court chief justice, gained some momentum after Budd voted against capping insulin costs. Category: A tough race that needs support!
NH-Maggie Hassan– The primary is coming up September 13 and NH is poised to send extremist GOP candidate Don Buldoc to the general election. This is a tight race that the GOP has really targeted. 538 says that “NH is small and pretty weird and that could help Maggie Hassan” Cook Political rates this race as “Lean D”
Category: Let’s bring this home!
NV-Catherine Cortez Masto– Cook Political has rated this race as a “toss-up” 538’s updated poll average shows Cortez Masto, the nation’s first Latina senator, slightly ahead of Adam Laxalt. The Hispanic vote is critical for both candidates in this race. Laxalt is using the Trump playbook of election denial and has called ROE “a joke”. Category: A close race that needs help!
OH-Tim Ryan-Cook Political has rated this race as “Lean R” This is an open seat in a very red state. But his Republican opponent, JD Vance, is struggling. From the article: “Ryan lambasted Vance for his anti-abortion position—the GOP candidate once compared abortion to slavery and has argued against exceptions for rape and incest—and suggested that those in unhappy or “even violent” marriages should stay in it for the sake of their children.” 538 shows this race as “confused,” meaning that Ryan could have a chance. Category: A gamble, but don’t give up.
PA-John Fetterman- Cook Political rates this race as “Lean D” 538 has him nine points up in their updated poll average. The GOP is abandoning NJ resident Mehmet Oz, pulling money out of his race. Oz has resorted to attacking Fetterman’s health. Category: Let’s bring this FLIP home!
WI-Mandela Barnes– Cook Political has rated this race a “toss-up” The incumbent Republican Ron Johnson is a Trump acolyte – saying that gargling would stop covid, that people can just move out of Wisconsin if they don’t like the abortion bans, and that the attack on the capital wasn’t that bad. Barnes is polling ahead by 4 points right now. The GOP has slashed spending in WI, out of concern about Johnson’s extreme unpopularity and chances of re-election. Force Multipler has been raising money for this race, observing that Mandela Barnes is …underfunded because of his August primary. Category: Effort here could bring spectacular results!