Turn Purple 2 Blue

Democrats Safeguarding Democracy: A Blueprint for Blue States to Fight Trump 2.0

Feeling frustrated that we have all Democratic elected officials and “they already know what to do”? Guess what – they don’t! In fact, they mostly just hear loud attacks from the MAGA minority, and we need to make sure they hear from us, the actual majority.

Our job as Blue state residents is to push them to protect us (and our neighbors if possible) – even if it prods them out of their comfort zone. The Indivisible Guide Chapter 2: A Quick Primer on Constituent Power explains how and why.

Luckily we have more Blue state trifectas to work with this time around. Ezra Levin, Co-Founder of Indivisible, came to talk to the Indivisible Mass Coalition – our statewide organization. The key take away: When making “an ask” of your elected official, make sure it is SPECIFIC, has a DEADLINE, and is MEASURABLE. We will be pressing our Governor, Legislature, and Attorney General to take action to protect us, and our neighbors from authoritarianism.

Read Indivisible’s specific guidance for Blue States
and Take Action

Slide Show from IMC Presentation

Full Indivisible Guide

Resistance Timeline

Resistance leader Robert Hubbell posted the following in his Substack. It provides an excellent and useful guide to of what the next four years under Trump is likely to look like.

To avoid exhaustion in the face of four more years of Trump, we should be thinking about resisting Trump in a series of discrete, shorter time periods. Thinking about our resistance in “phases” can help us be more strategic and relieve artificial pressure from our shoulders.

Between today and the Inauguration (January 20, 2025), Joe Biden is still president and can take steps to appoint judges and implement policies in a way that will delay or defeat efforts to undo Biden’s accomplishments.

After the Inauguration, Trump and his enablers will face the daunting task of embedding themselves in a massive federal government while they undertake their promised deportation of 10 million immigrants. That period will last eighteen months and will be a daily challenge. But then, the 2026 midterms will get underway. Trump’s congressional supporters will be concerned about re-election—a concern that may cause them to re-think their loyalty to Trump. Our leverage and messaging opportunities will increase.

In the last two years of his presidency, Trump will be a lame duck. The internal GOP struggle to replace Trump will be in full swing and Trump will be fighting with his party as much as he will be fighting with Democrats.

The point: While we cannot relent, the period of maximal effort will be the next twenty months (Dec and January, plus eighteen months before the 2026 midterms). What happens after that depends on whether Democrats retake the House in 2026.

So, rather than thinking about Trump’s tenure as a four-year unbroken battle, break up the periods of resistance into smaller periods. Doing so is realistic, smart, and healthy. We are in this battle for the long term. We can’t burn ourselves out with outrage and freneticism. We have a job to do. Let’s do it in a measured but passionate way. That will increase our chances for success.

Fight Back Now! Congressional Contact

Now is a good time to delve into Congressional contact—our most powerful tool for influencing the work of Congress.

Is Congressional contact really effective?

You might be surprised to know just how much of a difference making a phone call or writing an email can be. Take the example of HR 9495 in the last session of Congress. In a first House vote, a stunning 52 Democrats voted yes in support of the bill, which would have given the Treasury Secretary the authority to revoke the tax-exempt status of nonprofits. For the second House vote (a simple majority vote), only 15 Democrats voted yes. The difference? Many Democratic representatives switched their Yea votes to Nay in response to constituent pushback against the bill. Contacting our Congressional members is one of our most powerful tools for influencing legislation.

Does your congressperson really pay attention when you contact them?

Yes they do! Your opinions are valuable to them and are treated with care. Contacts from constituents are first received and catalogued by congressional staffers—even those messages left on answering machines. Calls also may be answered live by staffers who may engage you in discussion. Your message content is then relayed to your lawmaker to help guide them in setting legislative priorities and agendas. Congressional offices note that calls are more effective than writing because calls are faster to arrive and log in. Emails or letters may arrive too late to influence votes or other actions.

Why is calling or writing so powerfully important?

1. Re-election: Calls to your House Reps or Senators effectively signal how likely you might be to vote for them in the next election. So of course, they’re all ears! Support or criticism is equally important, they’re both useful feedback.

2. Numbers matter: High numbers of calls build pressure and urgency for upcoming votes. You can also be your lawmaker’s ally on issues you both agree on. Being able to cite large numbers of calls or emails on a given issue helps your congressperson defend their position on it.

3. Continual participation in the electoral process: Constituents can help shape issues as they develop into legislation. In non-election years, you may not have an opportunity to vote on items that are really important to you, but you can still influence current votes being taken in Congress. Active constituency ideally should be year-round.

Congressional contact is a quick,easy, and important form of activism.

Even your 1-minute phone call has a positive impact, and it’s simple to do. Assistance is provided by the nonprofit 5calls (https://5calls.org/), who makes this an easy and manageable task. In addition, organizers’ requests for you to contact Congress on a subject typically include clear instructions and a sample script that you can copy directly or personalize as you wish. And if you feel inspired by a cause or issue, definitely consider contacting your congressperson independently with your own message. Your views may end up directly influencing legislation!

Here’s how to find your Congressional Members:

https://www.congress.gov/members/find-your-member

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A November 2024 Synopsis: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

The Good:

Early fundraising allowed our candidates to call out opponents’ extremist positions, first impressions that Republicans couldn’t shake even by outspending us in the final weeks. We held our ground in the House, flipping 4 seats while the opposition flipped 5. Democrats won two-thirds of the closest House races, and Republicans won control by only 7,309 votes. Alabama, home to the Confederacy’s first capital, elected two Black members to Congress for the first time ever.

U.S. Rep. Terri Sewell, D-Birmingham (left), and incoming U.S. Rep. Shomari Figures, D-Mobile (right), will be the first Black U.S. House representatives from Alabama to serve simultaneously. (Left: Courtesy Terri Sewell for Congress; Right: Mike Kittrell for Alabama Reflector)

We knew maintaining a majority in the Senate would be a battle, and we aimed to minimize losses. We successfully held onto crucial seats in Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Michigan, narrowly losing Pennsylvania in overtime (aka automatic recount.) In each of these states, our Senate candidates outperformed the top of the ticket. While historically, Senate toss-up races have broken disproportionately for one party or the other, they split evenly this year.

Voters supported abortion rights in 7 states, expanding access in already legal states and lifting bans in two others. MAGA legislatures don’t always respect the voices of their constituents, but the voters did speak, and the issue did help our down-ballot candidates.

While the country shifted 7 points to the right, the states we focused on shifted only 3 points on average. Our investments – every dollar, every postcard, text, cured ballot, door-knock, and phone call – made a tangible difference. Losing ground never feels good, but we’ll be grateful for each of the 4 points we refused to cede as we head into 2026.

The Bad:

While Democratic Senate candidates in the deeply conservative states of Ohio and Montana outperformed Harris, we did lose the seats and thus majority control. We also lost the Independent Senate seat in West Virginia, a race we never realistically expected to win. We couldn’t rely on Manchin’s vote anyway, but he did caucus with Democrats, which counted when tallying the majority for leadership.

The Ugly:

Trump, Vance, and a MAGA trifecta; nuff said.

The reason we engage in politics is to influence policy. The policies of the incoming administration are vile, violent, and destructive, and they will undoubtedly cause widespread harm – particularly to the most vulnerable among us. We will surely see a blatant disregard for the rule of law and further erosion of democratic principles. This will unfold against a backdrop of chaos, division, and hatred.

Roll Credits:

We are the bonus cast of characters. [Cue theme song] The experience and connections we’ve gained since the first Trump administration put us in a position of strength. We plan to protect targeted people, defend our democracy, disrupt and disobey authoritarian flexes, and continue to build our power. It will require hard work and sacrifice, but we are equal to the challenge. We are prepared. We are determined. We understand our roles.

Official AP Results

The Shape of Resistance in 2025

In our Worth Fighting For Community Meetings, we have talked about the types of resistance that will be necessary in the new regime. It’s important to note that every person will not have to do every action. Let’s look at these four broad goals:

Protect People We are going to need to advocate to protect people directly targeted by these policies who are at the spear-tip of these policies. Trans people. Folks choosing abortions. Immigrants and beyond. This may look like pushing your state or local government to adopt protective policies, or – if your local government is hostile – organizing to stop them from taking additional harmful action. It includes open and underground organizing for health care, safety in schools, and safe homes.

Defend Democracy, Civic Institutions, and Electoral Competition We will also need to focus on defending civic institutions. We know Trump will go after our civic institutions, from attacking the civil service and weaponizing government agencies to do his bidding to undermining the ability to hold competitive elections. We’ll need to model a culture of dissent and support for those resisting and trying to uphold their missions on the inside of government. We’ll need to organize to mount overwhelming public pushback on efforts to undermine the key constitutional and legal rules that uphold our democracy. And we’ll need to push actors with power in American society – from our own state governments to corporations to faith communities – to hold those red lines.

Elections – You may hear Trump and the MAGA movement try to squash hope that future elections will matter. That’s part of the fascist playbook. That’s why it’s important to be clear: we will have elections in the future, and – if we protect our institutions and build our own power – we can and will win them.

Disrupt and Disobey This goes beyond protesting for better policies into the territory of people intervening to stop bad policies or showing resistance. Some of that will be fierce and in your face, but others will be quiet strikes and work slowdowns. In other authoritarian regimes, there are two ways to remove dictators: vote them out, or mass nonviolent noncooperation by the people to force them. This wing is the part that would help design that second strategy.

Build Our Power We have to build our own political power to insist on something better. This means organizing locally to transform power in your own community. It means fighting for better policies, wherever you are. It means investing in new leaders who can go on offense against MAGA. We can’t just be reacting. Some of us are going to have to focus on a new path forward.

These roles are not set in stone or all-encompassing. They speak to different tactics that might be taken at different times in our resistance.

How to Help Yourself and Your Activism

Some of us are still working through the implications of the election – or if you are like me, you can block them out for a little while, but a snippet of news brings them back in full force. Part of the problem is that there are not a lot of concrete actions to take right now, so our energies get pushed into worry and anxiety.

However, there is something important that you should be putting your energy into – now through January 20 and then as needed. Productivity experts at Franklin Covey call it “Sharpening the Saw.” We need to have the correct tools, and be able to wield them effectively when we need them! Here’s what you need to do to strengthen your readiness for the next two years.

Body: People often say activism is a marathon, not a sprint, but what does that really mean? A strong spirit needs a strong body to support it. Build in time to eat, exercise, rest, and sleep. Get those vaccines and make those recurring medical appointments.

Mind: Now is the time to learn and expand your knowledge base. Read and really digest the Indivisible Guide. Learn a new skill that you needed before but didn’t have time to pursue. Identify and join groups that will support your activist goals.

Heart: Make space to love and laugh. Spend time with loved ones. Build relationships that nourish you. Give service to others.

Soul: Choose your media thoughtfully – find what enlarges your world without useless repetition. Keep a journal, pray or meditate if the world’s problems seem too big.

Take care of yourself, and create an expectation that you will continue to take care of yourself. Often we say working within groups on these large issues is like being in a choir: the singers take turns pausing to take a breath, but the song continues, unbroken.

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Hey folks,

A little story.

We always planned to release a new Indivisible guide after the election — whatever the result. But after Trump won, suddenly that plan took on huge new weight. At our best, Indivisible helps people find the path — and in that moment, the path felt farther away than ever.

So, two days after the election was called, we left our kids with my mom, and Leah and I picked up a bunch of frozen meals and energy drinks and locked ourselves in a cabin in the woods for the long weekend. After three full days and long nights of nonstop writing, revising, getting feedback from across the movement, fighting over language, consuming copious caffeine, and partial reconciliation…we weren’t done yet. It wasn’t coming together. It didn’t flow.

That Monday I came back to DC to tell Rachel Maddow on live TV that we’d be releasing it Wednesday. Which meant, ready or not, it was coming out. We decided on a new structural rewrite that night at about 1am. We were coming down to the wire…but we made it: Wednesday morning I sent the final uncopyedited draft (typos are in our DNA) to our team:

Indivisible: A Practical Guide to Democracy on the Brink.

Donate Monthly to Support Indivisibles in Red States

A few hours later, we held the launch call with about 40,000 of you and Senator Elizabeth Warren. Since then, about 10,000 people have told us they’re looking to either be connected to a local group or start a new one. We had about 1000 people come to a training on “How to Start Your Local Indivisible Group” this week, and we’re hosting another one tomorrow. We drove 20,000 calls to Congress to unify Dems against a terrible bill that would increase Trump’s power (H.R. 9495). Matt Gaetz has come and gone. And we’ve talked to more press about building defiance to Trump 2.0 more times than I can count — this one that ran in USA Today is my favorite so far.

Some things have changed for the better. At this point in 2016, we didn’t have an Indivisible movement or organization. We didn’t have any real ties to the pro-democracy world of brilliant thinkers, researchers, and doers. We didn’t have a professionalized Indivisible national team of expert organizers, policy wonks, digital mavens, and technical wizards. Hell, we didn’t even have the original Indivisible guide — we wouldn’t start writing that until the weekend after Thanksgiving that year, and I didn’t post it until mid-December.

Yes, some things have gotten worse. The other side is more unified, prepared, and determined. What they’re planning to do is even scarier than last time. But we’ve also grown. We’ve also become better prepared. We also are determined from the get-go to fight for every inch.

We need your help to do that. Indivisible has always been a “fundraising second” operation — if you’re signed up on our list, you get far more messages from us about what you can do rather than what you can give. That’s important to us because first and foremost, we want you actually doing stuff. Too many political emails treat people like ATMs rather than real participants in the political process.

We aim to fundraise with honesty and integrity so you can be proud to give and you can be proud to be part of Indivisible locally. With integrity in such short supply right now, that seems like a good thing to pump out into the world.

Here’s what I’d appreciate you considering: a monthly donation to Indivisible. If you don’t like what we’re doing, cancel it. But I want to defeat more MAGA legislation. I want to support and push our Democratic governors and mayors to fight back proactively. I want to protect our election infrastructure. I want Indivisible groups to show up in solidarity with all those who Trump 2.0 will target. And I want this work funded through grassroots dollars that make this movement accountable to the people and nobody else.

A monthly donation will give us something Indivisible desperately needs as we head into the chaos to come: predictability. There are a lot of long weekends and late nights in coming months for Indivisible. I need to know we have the resources to support the team to get through it. Every dollar you are able to commit will go to reducing harm, building power, and defending our diminished democracy.

Thank you for investing in this movement. We need you.

In solidarity,
Ezra

Ezra LevinCo-Executive DirectorPronouns: He/him

Be a Warrior, Not a Victim! – Why You Should NOT Listen to Polls

The current poll hysteria, which the media has been consumed by, was described by Ezra Levin (co-founder, Indivisible) as: Harris is down! These demographic groups are slipping! That battleground is lost! We’re losing!!! Are things really so bad? Our answer is a resounding NO.

Let’s dive deep into this. Over the past several decades, polls have failed miserably to identify winners in national elections. The causes for polling failures vary, but our conclusions are the same: don’t listen to the polls. Here’s why:

Inaccurate (#1) vs Partisan (#2) Polling:

#1 – Consider the presidential race between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, who was widely predicted to win, in part because of his late surge in the polls. In October 2012, Romney (49%) led Obama (45%) among likely voters and tied among registered voters. Yet in early November, Obama won the popular vote by 4% and the electoral college 332 to 206.

What happened? After the 2012 election, USA Today reported: “Pollsters at Gallup later identified flawed methods that contributed to their incorrect prediction that Mitt Romney would win the 2012 presidential election, but they are still working to determine how to better identify who is likely to vote.” But even now, stubborn biases continue to plague pollsters.

#2 – Then recall the famed “Red Wave” of 2022 – which turned Blue on Election Day. A few weeks later, the New York Times published “The ‘Red Wave’ Washout: How Skewed Polls Fed a False Election Narrative.” Sound familiar?

This NYT review noted that the use of skewed polls serves partisan interests. This can happen when more reliable nonpartisan pollsters conduct fewer polls, perhaps because of low resources. The gap is filled by an onrush of poor quality or partisan polls, which can then seep into computing averages. Since polling drives campaigns and public opinion, skewed polls deliberately pollute the election narrative – with negative consequences for the other side.

What do these weaponized polls accomplish?

Misdirection of campaign funding: In 2022, skewed polls spooked some strong candidates into overspending and/or using up campaign money at the expense of underfunded candidates who might otherwise have had a fighting chance to win (remember Democrat Mandela Barnes’ lost Senate race in Wisconsin?)

Manipulation of media coverage: deserving candidates that poll badly may not receive as much airtime as they need or deserve to remain relevant in these days of click viewership. Similarly, polls can lead to disinformation and control of momentum to gain an advantage over the opposition.

Psychological warfare against the opposition: sapping energy, enthusiasm, and ultimately effort and money from supporters. And conversely, energizing the partisan base (and increasing their donations).

And as Ezra Levin noted: “Trump and his MAGAs are actively building a sense of inevitability so they can turn around and deny the results after they lose.” Trump used this ploy in 2020, and it’s currently his game plan for 2024.

Can we believe the polls in predicting the outcome of the 2024 presidential election? Again, the answer is No.

Today (10/21/2024), the NYT published a comprehensive updated review of polls and pollsters. They noted that while procedural corrections have been made to increase accuracy and to reduce partisan influence, technical issues and uncorrected biases still remain. The review also identifies “reliable” pollsters and reports their results – which are split almost evenly between Harris and Trump.

The take-home is that even reliable, nonpartisan polling cannot accurately predict the winner of a VERY TIGHT RACE – one that is tighter than we’ve seen in recent history – like that of Harris vs.Trump.

How do we deal with inaccurate or partisan polling?

There are two simple answers, both of which exercise your personal power:

The first is to stop listening to polls, despite the temptation. Reject the Big Media Talking Heads and accept the fact that NO ONE KNOWS who is going to win. And remember, the other side wants you to keep worrying for their own purposes.Ignore them!

The second is work, work, WORK! Grassroots activism is most powerful in very close races, when a few thousand votes may lead to victory or defeat. Democrats are working hard while MAGAs are lying and manipulating. The Democrats are now a powerful Turnout machine – but we keep working right up to the finish line.

So BE A WARRIOR, NOT A VICTIM! As Michelle Obama advises: just DO SOMETHING. And do it promptly, while you can still make a difference. Find the best actions for you on Turn Purple 2 Blue.

Election Timeline

We have looked at new protections that will help avert a MAGA Coup in How to Stop the (Real) Steal. As we get closer, it is important to understand the timeline of election after November 5th. Robert Hubbell explains in “Make a Plan for Election Night and Beyond“

“The final outcome of the election will not be known on election night. Gone are the days when staying up until 1:00 a.m. on Election Night would reveal “the winner.” Unless it is clear on Tuesday night that Kamala Harris will win several “sunbelt” states, it will be several days before the network prediction desks will be confident in predicting the presidential race.

There will likely be a “red mirage” on Election Night. As in 2016, 2018, and 2020, the election night counts will make it appear that Republicans are doing better than the final votes will show. Why? Some states require that same-day, in-person votes be counted first, which will exclude early voting and mail ballots—which tend to favor Democrats. See, e.g., New York Magazine, We May See Another ‘Red Mirage’ on Election Night 2024. So, do not panic! …

On election night, Trump will use the “red mirage” phenomenon to claim that he won and that the vote count should stop. He did so in 2016 and 2020 and will do so again in 2024. Don’t overreact….

Let the process play out. Try not to overreact to GOP lawsuits or delays in certifications. The last day for certifying the electors for each state is December 11, 2024 (the day on which each state’s executive issues “certificates of ascertainment”). That delay is intended to allow election challenges to play out in the courts. The Electoral Count Reform Act provides for expedited review by federal courts of appeal and the Supreme Court. The slates of electors meet in their respective states on December 17, 2024. The new House is sworn in, en masse by the Clerk, on January 3, 2025 at Noon. Mike Johnson—the outgoing Speaker—does not swear in the newly elected House members and cannot refuse to seat the newly elected members of Congress. Kamala Harris, the sitting vice president until January 20, 2025, presides over the Joint Session of Congress on January 6, 2025 at which time the electoral ballots are counted.”

So keep working. The best way to avert challenges is for us to win by as large as margin as possible. There is a limited time after November 5 for voters to correct errors in mail in or provisional ballots. If you can, train now for ballot curing in Pennsylvania or other states.

Stay tuned. I recommend Marc Elias’ Democracy Docket for legal updates. If protests or standouts are needed, Indivisible will organize nation-wide events.

In 2018, when we were losing the battle for the John Lewis Voting Rights Act, I attended a rally in DC. A grandaughter of Martin Luther King, Sr. spoke eloquently about the decades that Black Americans fought for their civil rights, and the ongoing fight for racial and criminal justice. She called upon us to stiffen our spines, and keep fighting for Democracy. I wish I had her exact words to quote, but that memory has been a guiding light for me. I do believe that Harris will win, and that we will flip the House. But no matter what happens, we have learned that the fight for Democracy, just as the fight for justice, is ongoing. We can and will prevail. The only way they win is if we stop fighting.