2022 Notable Wins for Dems!

Last updated 11/19/22
Candidate/IssueStateOffice
Healey/DriscollMAGovernor/ Lt. Governor
Andrea CampbellMAAttorney General
Diana DiZoglioMAAuditor
Katherine ClarkMACD 5
Lori TrahanMACD 3
Question 1MAFair Share
Question 2MADental Insurance Reform
Question 4MADrivers licenses for immigrants
Paul HerouxMA
Becca RauschMAMA Senate
Catherine Cortez MastoNVUS Senate
Mark KellyAZUS Senate
John FettermanPAUS Senate
Maggie HassanNHUS Senate
Sharice DavidsKSUS Senate
Katie PorterCA 45US House
Maxwell FrostFL10US House
Hillary ScholtenMI 03US House
Chris PappasNH 01US House
Abigail SpanbergerVA 07US House
Elissa SlotkinMI 07US House
Greg LandsmanOH01US House
Katie HobbsAZGovernor
Gretchen WhitmerMIGovernor
Tony EversWIGovernor
Josh ShapiroPAGovernor
Wes MooreMDGovernor
Janet MillsMEGovernor
Cisco AguilarNVSecretary of State
Adrian FontesAZSecretary of State
Joe TateMIMI House Leader
Josh KaulWIAttorney General
Aaron FordNVAttorney General

You Acted, Voters Responded

Updated December 4, 2022 – Look what you have achieved through all your hard work! Despite all the negative press about a red wave and polls “proving” how Democrats were going to do poorly in the midterms, we forged ahead strongly. (Never trust polls!) It is important to note that most of these races were Toss-Ups, which is exactly where we can help the most and turn the tide in our direction. Grassroots efforts really work!

We volunteers worked very hard in several states – especially in PA, NH, NV, AZ, and WI – and were rewarded by crucial wins in all of these states! We were able to hold on to the Senate through our collective efforts, and we may be able to achieve a Senate majority (stay tuned for the GA runoff on December 6). And instead of a Republican blow-out of dozens of seats, we trail closely in the House, making the Democrats a force to be reckoned with in that chamber.

Two of the most important races in the country were in PA, where we won the key Senate (Fetterman) and Governor’s (Shapiro) races. We also kept the NH Congressional representation blue (Hassan, Senate; and Pappas and Kuster, House). Think of all the postcards, phone calls, and texts we made to keep Mark Kelly (AZ) and Catherine Cortez Masto (NV) in the Senate, and both won. There was also a down ballot effect in those states in that Katie Hobbs was elected AZ governor and Democratic secretaries of state were elected in both AZ and NV. We also kept Governor Tony Evers (WI) in office, one of the most important races nationally. Check out our feature, Notable Wins, for a full list of our victories. And celebrate!

So we have lots to feel good about this election. Pat yourselves on the back (or open that bottle of champagne). You deserve it for all your hard work!

Grassroots Champions Don’t Have Off Years

Grassroots groups are still working, even now that the midterm election is over. These dedicated organizers work on the ground and don’t have off years. They build trust and serve their communities every day.

Arizona: Northeast Arizona Native Dems

Matriarch volunteers utilize all relational organizing tools and strategies customized for their Native communities. Volunteers receive training to register new voters, educate current voters, and get voters to the polls. We wrote postcards to tribal lands with this group, now let’s follow through with support as they canvass and call to get out the vote.

Pennsylvania: POWER

A grassroots organization of over 50 Pennsylvania congregations committed to racial and economic justice on a livable planet. Along with other initiatives, they are hosting the “Freedom Express” bus tour across the State of Pennsylvania. This tour is about Restoring Faith in Democracy, helping people imagine a Pennsylvania where all thrive, and calling out the bad actors financing oppression by supporting White Christian Nationalist causes.

Wisconsin: Souls to the Polls, Milwaukee

Souls to the Polls knows a strong voting bloc is key to pressing state and local leaders on issues such as affordable housing, education, economic development, gun violence, and governmental transparency. Together, they are building a bloc of engaged community members in a mission to channel their faith and bring 100,000 Souls to the Polls.

Keep that Laser Focus

Two weeks to go until the final voting day, November 8.  The media is busy whipping us into a frenzy, chasing ratings, and spinning polls.

Take a breath.  Remember:

  1.  We have been laying the groundwork for the entire year.  More Women than ever are registered to vote.  More young people have registered to vote since the last election.  The last two weeks are for Get Out the Vote.  Focus on that.  Text, Canvas, Phonebank.  Get Out the Vote.
  1. Ignore Polls.  We know from 2016 how unreliable they are.  It depends on who is doing the poll, and how they write the questions.  It depends on who answers the phone.  Robert Hubbell says “I hope we are not naive enough to believe that polling results are free of political spin. For reasons that deserve scrutiny in the future, most media outlets in America are controlled by conservative interests promoting the partisan agenda of the MAGA-GOP. For the moment, we must accept the abuse of the American airwaves by dark money and overcome it by exercising the foundational right in the Constitution—the right to choose our representatives by voting. If we do that in sufficient numbers, we will prevail.”
  1.  The GOP continues to flood the zone with excrement.  Each “policy” proposal is more outrageous and disgusting.  National Don’t say Gay Bill.  Sunset Medicare at age 90.  Sunset Social Security and postpone it until age 70.  End the aid to Ukraine.  They are trying to incite panic, demoralize us, and destroy our focus.  All these races are close.  This is not new. We must GET OUT THE VOTE.
  1.  Notice the media is not talking about Abortion anymore?  They think women will not remember.  Guess what?  We do not forget what we are reminded of every month.  And every woman has felt the panic of being late in their lives.  Even women past childbearing years remember this viscerally.  Every woman also understands what is at stake, and that is their basic healthcare.  From acute period pain to miscarriage, from contraceptives to healthy pregnanices, from ectopic pregnancy threats  to InVitro Fertilization, women need to be free to manage their own bodies on the advice of their doctor.  

In Conclusion

Here’s more from trusted sources:

Leah Greenberg, Co-founder of Indivisible “We are in the Margin of Effort when polls are close.  Focus on what we can control- every voter makes a difference…Right now, no one knows what the composition of the election will be:  how many young people, how many women, or how many activated MAGA.”

Rachel Maddow, After describing how all the polls were within the Margin of Error “Here’s what all these very close polls are telling you: Whomever you want to win … they need your help. Volunteer … today.”

Here’s a voice I don’t usually quote, Michael Moore from his Oct 23rd column.  After he calls into question the motives of the media (and reminds us that he predicted Trump’s win), he continues:

Let’s go over the one main fact that should guarantee the winning of ANY election:

There are more of us than there are of them! By the MILLIONS!

  • Democrats have won the popular vote in 7 of the last 8 presidential elections. 
  • Amongst 33 states and territories who let you affiliate with a party when you register to vote, there are currently 48 million registered Democrats vs. 36.4 million registered Republicans. 
  • There are also 35.3 million registered independents. And a recent WSJ poll has Democrats with a 38%-35% edge over Republicans among independents.
  • The vast majority of Americans agree with us on ALL the major issues —
    • legal abortion (62%), 
    • climate crisis (75%), 
    • minimum wage (62%), 
    • paid family leave (70%), 
    • legal marijuana (91%), 
    • unions (71%), 
    • Medicare for all (69%), 
    • Equal Rights Amendment for women (78%), 
    • free pre-K+ (71%), 
    • LGBTQ+ rights (71%), 
    • more gun control (70%)

The people are already with us — by a wide margin. So how can we lose?

By failing to get out the vote — a vote that is ours if we want it.

Are we going to let that happen? We can’t just talk about it. We have to DO IT. 

What did each of you do this weekend to guarantee a victorious turnout on November 8th (and to get people out now in the states where early voting is taking place)?

So keep that laser focus.  Get Out the Vote. Do a Daily Action.  Vote and encourage others to vote in Massachusetts (Yes on Four!).  Volunteer for ballot curing after Nov 8.  

They want us to give up.  WE WILL PERSIST.

Democratic Association of Secretaries of State (DASS)

In most states, secretaries of state are the top officials overseeing elections. In 2022, at least 10 states have election deniers running for this crucial office.  A recent article in the Washington Post asked the question, what if election deniers were elected secretaries of state?  

The deniers could:

  • Make it harder to vote
  • Allow for endless audits of results
  • Refuse to sign off on election results
  • Sow distrust in election results

In short, profoundly threaten our democracy! 

The Democratic Association of Secretaries of State (DASS) works to elect these vital officials and protect our electoral system, the foundation of our democratic government. They deserve all the help we can give them. Please consider donating to DASS to safeguard our democracy!

Nevada – Enigmatic Battleground State

Nevada, long a blue state and now purple, is pivotal for the midterms but difficult to call.  Elections are uniquely challenging to forecast in Nevada, since the electorate is highly transient – half of all voters are new to the state since 2016 – and the largest bloc in the state is unaffiliated voters. Latinos, who make up nearly a quarter of the state’s population, traditionally have voted Democratic in Nevada. Yet many now are voting Republican because of the economy.  Nevadans are heavily dependent on the Las Vegas economy, so many vote out of pocketbook concerns. But Nevadans also care deeply about voting rights, access to abortion, education, fair immigration policies, and other key social issues. So Nevada is politically balanced on a knife edge, and we can make a real difference here with our grassroots power!   

So what’s happening now in Nevada? Here’s an update on the most important midterm races:

Senate: The race between incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto (D) and Adam Laxalt (R), both former Nevada Attorneys General, is rated a Toss Up by Cook Political Report. Cortez Masto, the first Latina elected to the Senate, is considered one of the most vulnerable Democratic Senators in the 2022 midterms. Cortez Masto has been hailed as a champion for women’s and abortion rights. But as the Democratic incumbent, she also has been dogged by narrative that Biden and the Democrats have ruined the economy. This perception has lost her Latino support. Opponent Laxalt is a Trump protege who has called the 2020 election “rigged” and Roe v. Wade “a joke.” Although Cortez Masto has raised more funds than Laxalt has to date, Republicans are pumping money into this race in anticipation of a flip. We must win this race to keep the Senate! The Cortez Masto campaign needs grassroots donations and help with Nevada postcards and phonebanks.

Governor: The race between sitting Governor Steve Sisolak (D) and current Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo, is also rated a Toss-Up by Cook Political. Governor Sisolak, who has successfully defended Nevada from Republican extremists in the legislature, is weighed down by the same anti-Biden economic propaganda as Senator Cortez Masto. Like the Senator, Sisolak also has lost Latino votes due to emphasis on the economy. Lombardo, a pro-life Trump endorsee, accuses Sisolak of crippling Nevada’s tourism-heavy economy with coronavirus restrictions. Donate to the Sisolak campaign or to the Democratic Governors Association to help Steve Sisolak keep blue control of this key swing state.

Secretary of State: The race between Cisco Aguilar (D) and former state Rep. Jim Marchant (R) is frightening, potentially putting the fox in charge of the chicken coop.  The Secretary of State position is the official responsible for overseeing elections in the state. Marchant is a flagrant election denier who would not have certified Biden’s election in 2020 and who would favor “alternate electors” in 2024. Marchant himself lost a congressional race in 2020 and, taking a page from the Trump playbook, claimed without evidence that the election was stolen from him. His number one priority is to “overhaul the fraudulent election system in Nevada.” Meanwhile, Aguilar favors an extensive set of strategies to counter voter suppression and make sure that all votes are cast and counted. Vote Forward has a new experimental initiative (Lab) in support of Cisco Aguilar, the first candidate ever to receive the support of a Vote Forward campaign. Or donate to the Democratic-association-of-secretaries-of-state (DASS) which provides financial support to SOS candidates. 

Arizona Elections as a Total Abortion Ban Takes Effect

Update: 10/8/22 AZ Court blocks enforcement of total abortion ban.
Let’s check in on Arizona after working hard for them all year.

Senate:  Democrat Mark Kelly seems to be pulling ahead of radical MAGA Blake Masters.  Republicans have pulled $9.6 million dollars of ads from the state.  There will be a debate Oct 6, and early voting starts Oct 12.  The latest poll shows Kelly ahead by 8 points.

Governor:  Democrat Katie Hobbs seems to be virtually tied with radical MAGA Kari Lake.  However the poll cited here  took place just as the latest assault on women’s rights was happening. We need a concerted effort to get out the vote.

Secretary of State:  Democrat Adrian Fontes opposes radical MAGA Mark Finchem, who refuses to acknowledge that Joe Biden won the presidential election.  AZCentral has endorsed Fontes, saying that “Arizona’s next secretary of state is critical to the future of democracy.  Whoever wins not only will serve as Arizona’s elections chief, but also will have a strong bully pulpit to influence how elections are carried out, how votes are tallied and how elections are validated.”  Polls aren’t very predictive in this race:  they are showing 40% of independents as undecided.

State Legislature:  We only need one seat in each in the State House and State Senate to tie for control.  The States Project has designated Arizona as one of their key states, concentrating on a state senate race.  Once again concerned citizens like you are doing what the Democratic party failed to do:  spend money early on key state legislative races.

Conclusion:  While the Senate race seems to be in hand (Cook Political now calls this race “lean democrat”), the state level races are a toss-up.  The problem is that Arizona is a hotbed of MAGA extremism around election denial and abortion rights. 

Both Robert Hubbell and Heather Cox Richardson have addressed the shocking developments out of Arizona at the end of September, and you can read their essays below.  Republicans have banned all abortions in Arizona through a combination of legislation and judicial intervention.  Judges allowed an 150 year old law (enacted before Arizona was even a state) to be resurrected.  This archaic law, combined with the legislature’s 15 week abortion ban, effectively bans all abortions in Arizona, even when the woman’s life is in danger.  

This recent development is not captured in the polls yet.  Will the stripping of their health care and bodily autonomy drive Arizona women to vote?  Keep working, and stay tuned.

Georgia – The fight for Fair Elections and Voting Rights

Georgia’s story is one of a deep-red Southern state that has recently turned purple, transforming it into a fierce battleground. Before 2020, Georgia was staunchly Republican. Georgia had elected only one Democrat, Bill Clinton, in the past 30 years, and he won by only 0.6% of the vote. But things began to turn around in 2020/2021, when Trump was defeated by Biden and both Republican Georgia Senate seats flipped. These successes have given Democrats momentum, which is being used to promote progressive values in Georgia. Not surprisingly, Republicans are fighting back with repressive, extremist policies, including abortion bans and tougher voting requirements.

Georgia is currently at a crossroads, and the midterm elections will critically determine the direction that Georgia will go. The most important midterm races are for Governor and Senate. Both races are currently rated toss-ups. Our grassroots efforts can make the most difference in such close races!

Governor’s race: Stacey Abrams (D) vs incumbent Governor Brian Kemp (R):

Who has never heard of Stacey Abrams, activist and champion for voting rights? She will play a key role in Georgia’s immediate and future direction. In 2018, she challenged incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp in the Georgia governor’s race. Kemp won by a narrow margin in the closest gubernatorial race in Georgia in over 50 years. But the deck was stacked against Abrams, who sued on the basis of allegations of voter suppression and election manipulation by state officials. Kemp did not resign from his position as state’s chief election officer until shortly after the election that he won, which was clearly unethical. Abrams’ lawsuit, which challenges Georgia’s entire election system as being biased and unconstitutional, began in April of this year. However, its conclusion is unlikely to come early enough to affect the midterm elections. 

Stacy Abrams is a game-changer, best known now for her tireless activism with Fair Fight and her ability to mobilize voters. Following the 2018 election fiasco, Stacey put together one of the most effective grassroots machines ever. Fair Fight and its army of volunteers propelled Biden, Warnock, and Ossoff to victory in Georgia. Fair Fight also addresses voter suppression in other states, especially Texas. We owe Stacey Abrams a debt of gratitude for opening the door for change in Georgia. However, there is still a way to go to ensure fair voting practices and elections not only in Georgia but wherever voter suppression is rampant. 

Abrams is now re-challenging Gov. Kemp in the 2022 midterm election. She has grown from a little-known figure in Georgia politics into a champion of voter empowerment, and is now a Democratic star with a national reputation. Stacey is a true progressive, a staunch defender of reproductive and human rights, voter empowerment, and gun safety laws. Gov. Kemp, on the other hand, backs an extreme “no excuses” abortion ban, voter suppression, and gun laws so relaxed that even law enforcement opposes them. The choice cannot be clearer – and it’s our job to help Stacey Abrams defeat Brian Kemp, on a hopefully more level playing field this time around.  

Senate race: Rafael Warnock (D) vs. Herschel Walker (R)

 In 2021, Rafael Warnock, an activist Baptist preacher, stunned Republicans by winning the Georgia Senate runoff to become the first Black Democratic Senator from the South. Because it was a special election, Warnock needs to run for re-election in 2022. Although he has had little time in the Senate, Warnock has already supported issues that have pleased his supporters but made him a target for his opponents. He has supported Covid stimulus checks, Medicaid expansion, and federal voting laws, all of which have been opposed by Republicans who have him in the cross-hairs for defeat in the midterms.

Warnock’s Senate opponent in the midterms is Trump-backed Herschel Walker. Walker was a top NFL football player who played for Georgia. He is supported by extremist Republicans who want to defeat Warnock and flip the Senate. Because of Walker’s name recognition and image as a Georgia hero, he also is supported by many casual voters who only see him as a celebrity. However, more recently, Walker’s suitability as a candidate has been questioned due to allegations of threatening violence against women, as well as fathering children out of wedlock while advocating against children growing up in fatherless homes. 

Like the gubernatorial race, the Senate race between Warnock and Herschel is rated a toss-up. Warnock is considered one of the most vulnerable Democratic Senators up for re-election in 2022. We must change that to keep our Senate majority! 

Other races: Marcus Flowers (D) vs. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R)
You may be receiving frequent emails from Marcus Flowers that rightfully attack Majorie Taylor Greene, the US Representative from GA-14. Remember her – the QAnon-friendly election denier from Georgia who said California wildfires were started from Jewish space lasers? Marcus Flowers, her opponent, is a Black Army vet and former defense contractor and government official. The drive of Democrats across the country to unseat Taylor Greene has brought Flowers more money than for any other congressional challenger in the country. Unfortunately, though Flowers would be a strong candidate in many other districts, he is considered very unlikely to win in deep-red GA-14. We hope to see more of Flowers in the future, perhaps running for a state office, but for 2022, it seems more strategic to work for the election of Abrams and Warnock in Georgia.

It’s a BFD: The Inflation Reduction Act

August 18, 2022 by Christine Brown

The anger resulting from SCOTUS’s destruction of women’s rights has woken the electorate and the tide is turning in our favor.  But it sure is nice to have something positive to run on as well!  Although it’s not everything in Build Back Better, it is crucial legislation that shows how Democrats can govern.

It’s really a BFD – and has many important provisions (full text of bill).   What is in the Inflation Reduction Act?

It’s a Climate Bill.

Robert Hubbell discusses the Climate gains and losses in his newsletter  Celebrating A Long-term Accomplishment  “The bill is the most significant investment in the climate crisis ever, and that investment came with steep concessions to the fossil fuel industry. The bottom line is that the legislation may help reduce carbon emissions in the US by 40% in the next decade.”

       He continues in Biden Signs the IRA “The Inflation Reduction Act is a sprawling piece of legislation that includes hundreds of provisions that will become apparent over time. An article in Vox lists several provisions that have received little attention. See Vox, The Inflation Reduction Act does more than clean energy and EV tax credits. Per Vox, the IRA includes,

  1. $3 billion for community cleanup to ameliorate the effects of pollution and contamination in low-income neighborhoods. The money can be used for capping abandoned oil wells, installing noise barriers near freeways, reducing urban heat islands, reconnecting communities separated by highways, creating regional greenways, and building multi-use trails.
  2. $10 billion to cover costs of rural electrical co-ops moving away from coal-based electrical generation (including shutting down 172 coal-fired generating facilities).
  3. $5 billion in block grants to states trying to reduce their carbon footprints. Applicants are not limited to the governors or legislatures but can include independent public utilities seeking to decrease carbon emissions.
  4. $20 billion for “climate-smart” agriculture and forestry practices, which will encourage farmers to capture carbon by planting “cover crops” and invest in protecting “old growth” forests that serve as carbon sinks.”

It’s a Healthcare bill.

Hubbell’s The Bonfire of Insanity details the healthcare provisions.  “For Medicare enrollees the IRA

  • caps “out-of-pocket” drug costs at $2,000 per year 
  • creates an average cost reduction per enrollee of $800 per year by allowing the government to negotiate prices for 100 drugs 
  • sets a cap of $35 per month for insulin supplies. (Senate Republicans defeated a provision that would have extended the $35 monthly cap on insulin to all Americans.) 

It’s a tax reform bill

Don’t forget that this bill pays for itself.  Robert Hubbell continues by detailing the tax code changes in which the IRA:

  • doubles tax credits for small businesses engaged in research and development, thereby incentivizing innovation.
  • pays  for these improvements by imposing a minimum 15% tax on corporations generating more than $1 billion per year. That provision aligns the US with 136 other countries that have adopted a similar minimum corporate tax—an effort designed to stop multinational corporations from evading taxes by playing a high-stakes, real-life game of “Where in the World is Carmen Sandiego?”      

What’s our job?  Share and talk about this with friends and family – make sure they know why you think it is important.  Don’t let our awareness of what is left to be done inhibit the celebration of a real start.  For Inspiration, US Rep. Mikie Sherrill cites respected climate activist Daniel Hunter, who said,

Who will want to join … if it’s all sadness and misery? Who will acknowledge our contributions if we fail to name them ourselves?”       Sherrill concludes, “Cynicism, in other words, does not build power – only hope can do that.”

Yes, NYT, Postcards Do Work

August 3, 2022 by Christine Brown

Yesterday, the New York Times published an op-ed about Democrat’s failures. I agree that, yes, those fundraising emails are awful (that’s one reason we started TP2B). I also agree that door knocking is an important tool, however, they left out that the reason we didn’t door knock for 2020 was a deadly pandemic. And yes, we at Indivisible and Turn Purple to Blue totally agree about nurturing and empowering grassroots groups.

But then they attacked postcarding. Robert Hubbell has thoroughly addressed the op-ed in his August 2nd and August 3rd newsletters. I encourage you to read them in their entirety. But here are some important points:

The Study Cited was Flawed: From Robert Hubbell “…another person familiar with the study described it

          as tiny and poorly done. It was extremely small (a few thousand postcards). It wasn’t a randomized or controlled experiment. The postcards supported particular down-ballot candidates, but the researchers measured increase in turnout overall (which was not the purpose of the postcard campaign).

          Another reader posted a comment saying that she provided the data for the study cited in yesterday’s NYTimes article. She remarks that “although well-intentioned, the postcard study was flawed from the beginning and its conclusions, therefore, were suspect, due to a lack of communication between me and the researchers when the article was written.

 There are Numerous Postive Studies:    From Robert Hubbell “I received many emails pointing to much larger studies showing a positive effect of up to 3% in voter turnout in response to postcards. For a general discussion of that research and links to studies, see a blog on MediumA Gateway to Activism, Postcards Win Close Elections.

          Another reader from Reclaim Our Vote reported on several campaigns run by that group. She notes that

It’s worth underscoring that a relatively small percentage increase in voter turnout among the communities targeted for postcarding can have significant impact:

* In 2019 in Onslow, NC, 26% of purged voters to whom ROV sent postcards subsequently registered to vote.

* In 2020 in the Georgia primary, 3.3% of the 143,000 purged Black Georgia voters postcarded by ROV registered to vote.

* In 2021, in Petersburg, VA, there were 6100 voters with no phone number so ROV postcarded them, and 43% of them voted, compared with 40% voter turnout by all Petersburg Black voters.

          You might also enjoy this article from DemCast Usa summarizing earlier studies about the effectiveness of Postcards.

So, Powerful Postcarders. Thank you for your support and engagement. Postcards are an important tool. So is canvassing, phonebanks, and textbanks. I always say that there is so much to do: Choose what you like to do, and the topic that you are passionate about. As of this writing, Turn Purple 2 Blue has distributed almost 33,000 postcards to our writers since January 2022. You rock!

  

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