Facts: There are a total of 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, and all terms expire every two years. Currently, there are 217 seats held by Republicans, 212 by Democrats, one by an Independent (who caucuses with the Republican party), and 5 vacant seats. Democrats need 218 seats to attain the majority. This number serves as the absolute threshold required to control the floor and pass legislation. So flipping the House is a high priority for the midterms.
Actions you can take: House races are well-suited for grassroots organizing! These races are very different from Senate races in that voter numbers are much smaller. Nationally, average turnouts per election are on the order of 250,000 voters per district. In close races, differences between candidates can be miniscule – in 2022, Republican Lauren Boebert (CO-03) won her House race by less than 600 votes. These expected close races are perfect targets for grassroots organizing – whether it be donations, postcards, canvassing, or other tactics – where our efforts have the greatest impact. Here are some of the House races where you can make a real difference.
Pennsylvania is a top battleground state in 2026.
Pennsylvania was a blue state from the 1990s to the 2010s, voting strongly Democratic during this period. The state shifted from blue to purple when Donald Trump was elected by a hair in 2016. The following three districts are considered among the most vulnerable in the country to flipping in 2026. Replacing these particular Republican representatives is high priority, given their indefensible ethics and voting records.
PA-7 (Lehigh Valley) – Republican Ryan Mackenzie is an election denier. As a state House representative in 2020, he urged Congress to reject and decertify PA’s electoral votes. Trump’s endorsement in 2024 inched Mackenzie past three-time Democratic incumbent Susan Wild. As a U.S. House representative, Mackenzie has voted with Trump 98% of the time. His close connection with Trump may not be an asset for him in 2026.
Mackenzie’s current challenger, Democrat Bob Brooks, is a union leader and former firefighter with blue-collar credentials running in a working class district. Brooks enjoys strong Democratic support and is widely endorsed by key Democrats, labor unions, and progressive PACs.
Cook rates this race as a Toss Up.
PA-8 (Northeast PA, Poconos) – In 2024, political newcomer Republican Rob Bresnehan flipped this seat to narrowly defeat 6-time Democratic incumbent Matt Cartwright. Ethical transgressions by Rep. Bresnehan have been numerous. After campaigning on prohibition of stock trading by members of Congress, as a US House representative, he himself became the second most active stock trader in Congress. Many of his transactions smell of insider trading. For example, he sold stocks in several major health care companies a week before he voted to gut Medicaid. Given Bresnehan’s shady financial dealings and character, both sides consider PA-08 one of the races most vulnerable to flipping in 2026.
Bresnehan faces an uphill battle against Scranton Mayor, Democrat Paige Cognetti. Her campaign focuses on anti-corruption and lowering working-class costs, a strong platform for this district. She has heavily weaponized Bresnehan’s record, pledged to ban congressional stock trading, and rejected corporate PAC money.
Cook rates this race as a Toss Up.
PA-10 (Harrisburg and York areas) – MAGA incumbent Republican Scott Perry is endorsed by both Trump and Mike Johnson. Like Mackenzie, Perry is an election denier who led the charge to decertify PA’’s slate of electors. He is a prominent member, and former Chairman, of the ultraconservative House Freedom Caucus, and has close ties to Turning Point. As with Mackenzie, Perry’s relationship with Trump may be a political liability in the current landscape.
Perry will be fighting for his political life in this rematch race against challenger Democrat Janelle Stelson. After losing the 2024 election by only 1%, she is favored to win in 2026. Stelson is an Emmy Award-winning, former PA news anchor with strong support from the Democratic party. Her campaign focuses on affordability and paints Perry as an extremist, even among MAGA Republicans.
Cook rates this race a Toss Up.
California – consequences of redistricting.
California is one of the bluest states in the nation. Last year, in direct response to Texas’s gerrymandering, California passed Proposition 50 to level the playing field. Initially, the expected additional five seats seemed to be easy pickups for Democrats. However since then, there have been several major setbacks in the national gerrymandering battle. Suddenly the new California seats appear as must-flips, and two of these races – CA-22 and CA-48 – are now seen as highly competitive.
CA-22 (California’s Central Valley) – This redrawn district is considered a prize, as Democrats have long coveted it. Organizers for both parties are gearing up for a tough and expensive fight. CA-22 counted the third fewest ballots in the country during the last midterm election, so Democratic turnout is going to be absolutely critical to win this district!
In recent years, CA-22 shifted right with pro-Trump Hispanic voters, and for the past 10 years, the valley has been represented by Republican David Valadao. Now Valadao’s seat is in jeopardy, as the new CA-22 map drawn after Prop. 50 favors Democrats. Trump is unlikely to come to his rescue, as Valadao was one of the handful of Republican representatives to vote to impeach him in 2021 for his role in Jan 6. Further weighing against him, Valadao voted for Trump’s cuts in Medicaid, while over half of his district receives Medicaid. This will not be passed over lightly during the race for the CA-22 seat.
Democrat Randy Villegas is the candidate running against incumbent Valadao. Villegas, a “proud son of immigrants,” is a political scientist, educator, and politician with deep roots to the community and a proven commitment to justice and equality. He is also a proud progressive and has been endorsed by Bernie Sanders, Ro Khanna, AOC, labor unions, and by Indivisible. He rejects corporate PAC money and has successfully built a significant war chest from grassroots donors.
In the June 2 CA top-two primary, Valadao attained the first place position, while the second position was split by the two Democratic candidates, Villegas and Jasmeet Bains. Defying political odds, Villegas defeated moderate Bains, who was backed by the Democratic establishment. The direct involvement of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) in Bain’s campaign showed poor judgement and was loudly decried as inappropriate as well as ineffective, particularly as their strategy of promoting centrist candidates has in the past failed miserably against Valadao. Villegas will now run against Valadao in the November general election, and the Democratic establishment is now behind him. Democratic turnout will be key for this race.
Cook rates this race a Toss Up.
CA 48 Open seat (San Diego area) – Incumbent Republican Darrell Issa has decided not to run for re-election, leaving the district open. In the House, Issa is regarded as a staunchly partisan attack dog, and this deep red district was a good fit for him. However, redistricting has turned the district light blue and given Democrats a serious advantage, which discouraged Issa. Another factor in Issa’s decision may have been the vocal discontent of the Democratic constituency, who protested in large numbers at No Kings. The writing was on the wall from Issa’s perspective, leading him to retirement.
Unfortunately, Issa’s departure has opened the door for a strong challenger, who many think is better than Issa was. Republican Jim Desmond is a well-known local official with strong community ties, including fundraising connections. He also isn’t saddled with Issa’s close ties to Trump. He will be a formidable candidate, having taken the top position in the CA top-two primary on June 2.
However, Desmond’s opponent, Democrat Marni von Wilpert, has her own strengths, including strong union and constituent support in addition to the redrawn district boundaries. A lawyer and San Diego councilwoman, she is campaigning on the skyrocketing cost of living, reproductive rights, cleaning up corruption and defending democracy. She has won competitive elections and beaten Republicans before, and she will stand up to Trump in Congress.
Cook rates this race Lean Democrat.
More states to follow after their primaries!