It seems that the MAGA takeover of the Republican party is nearly complete. The vicious infighting is driving more early retirements – Representatives are leaving immediately, not just declining to run for re-election (although there are plenty of those too). Bill Johnson (R-OH) and Ken Buck (R-CO) led the departures, and now Mike Gallagher (R-WI) will leave on April 19, a date chosen to prevent a special election and leave the seat open. This reduces the Republican majority in the House to one – they can lose one vote and still have the majority. Rep. Buck has hinted that two more resignations may come.
It is still unlikely that the majority will flip to Democrats though. Democrats are expected to win a safe seat vacated by Brian Higgens in NY’s April special election. But three Republican vacancies will be filled by special elections in the coming months: Kevin McCarthy in California, Bill Johnson of Ohio and Ken Buck of Colorado. These are all safe Republican seats.
Focus on California
Activate America has just announced a new campaign for Adam Gray (CA-13). The Republican incumbent won by only 564 votes in 2022. This seat seems eminently flippable. Why write for this race? Well, various articles have recently pinpointed a serious problem in our electorate – only about 15% are paying attention. So we can’t expect any changes to happen by themselves.
Focus on Nevada
Activate America is writing to protect incumbent US House Democrats Dina Titus, Steven Horsford, and Susie Lee. This plays well into our nested strategy; while protecting these house seats, we will also garner votes for Senator Jackie Rosen and President Biden in this very purple state. An interesting characteristic of Nevada is that the population changes quickly – so the power of incumbency is less. We need to work to protect these seats.
