With only four months left until the November general election, it’s time to check in on our House Strategy. Democrats only need to flip a net of five seats to regain the majority. This is very doable, considering that Democrats continue to outperform the polls. However, at the same time, we must protect incumbent Democrats from Republican challenges.
Our strategy has been to concentrate on races in our battleground states in order to utilize a “nesting strategy.” A nesting strategy is the practice of uplifting registration and messaging in a state where there is the most to be gained: the electoral vote for Biden, a Senate seat, various House seats and statewide offices. Let’s summarize the House races in the states that we are working in:
- Arizona (primary Aug 6). We are watching two seats currently held by Republicans: Schweikert (AZ-01) and Ciscomani (AZ-06). Cook Political rates these as “toss up” There is a lot of activity in Arizona because of the Senate race and the Right to Abortion initiative which will be on the November ballot.
- California. Many groups are concentrating on California because of the cluster of “Unrepresentatives,” Republicans defending House seats where Biden won in 2020. These include: Duarte (C-13), Vladao (C-22), Garcia (C-27) and Calvert (CA-41) all rated “toss up” by Cook Political. Steel (CA-45) is rated as “lean Republican.” State Senator Dave Min won the primary for CA-47 (Katie Porter’s vacated seat), which is rated as “Lean Democrat.”
- Michigan (primary Aug 6). There are two seats rated as “toss up” and both democratic incumbents are not running. Elissa Slotkin (MI-07) resigned to run for Senate. Dan Kildee (MI-08) announced his retirement. Protecting these seats doesn’t count for the five needed to flip the House and these seats are vulnerable.
- New York New York also has a cluster of “Unrepresentatives,” Republicans defending House seats where Biden won in 2020. Republicans D’Esposito (NY-04), Lawler (NY-17) and Molinaro (NY-19) are rated as “toss-up” by Cook Political and are ripe for defeat. We already flipped NY-03, with Suozzi taking a decisive victory in the special election earlier this year. He still has to run again this November.
- Nevada We have been writing for Democratic incumbents in Nevada because the electorate there changes rapidly. We have two “Likely Democrat” seats to protect: Titus (N-01) and Horsford (NV-04). Lee (NV-03) is rated “lean Democrat.” Protecting these seats doesn’t count for the 5 needed to flip the House.
- Ohio We have two seats in danger here. Kaptur (OH-09) and Sykes (OH-13) both need to be protected and both are rated as “toss-ups.” Protecting these seats doesn’t count for the 5 needed to flip the House.
- Pennsylvania There are three competitive seats, all currently held by Democrats. Delusio (PA-17) is rated as a “lean Democrat.” Wild (PA-07) and Cartwright (PA-08) are rated as “toss-up.” Protecting these seats doesn’t count for the 5 needed to flip the House.
- Wisconsin (Primary 8/13) Wisconsin is a purple state, with control between Democrats and Republicans constantly shifting. In 2024, there is one competitive House race, Van Orden (WI-03), rated as “lean Republican.” This could be as serendipitous flip as we write for the Senate seat there.
There are other isolated House races that are possible flips or need protecting in Colorado, Maine, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oregon, and Washington. Many of these races are included in Force Multiplier’s slate of candidates. If you are interested in reading more about these candidates or donating to them, check out Force Multiplier.