Electoral votes:
- Michigan – 16
- Wisconsin – 10
- Pennsylvania – 20
Region – Midwest:
The so-called midwestern “Blue Wall” states – Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania – are must-wins for the Democrats! With their 46 electoral votes, added to those from more reliably blue states, we can reach the 270 required for winning the presidency. These states have been solidly Democratic since 1992, except in 2016 when Trump flipped all three states by a combined margin of 80,000 total votes to win the election. Then in 2020, Biden took all three states back in another narrow victory. Currently, all three are rated “Toss Ups.”
Electoral votes:
- Georgia – 16
- North Carolina -15
Region – Coastal South:
Georgia and North Carolina are two battleground states that can be game-changers with their combined 31 electoral votes. Both are currently rated Lean Red. Both states have both large urban and rural populations and large Black constituencies throughout the state. Winning margins again are small: in 2020, Biden won Georgia with less than 12,000 votes (0.23%) while North Carolina went for Trump, who won by 1.3%.
Electoral votes:
- Arizona – 11
- Nevada – 6
Region – Southwestern Desert:
Arizona and Nevada share large Latinx and indigenous populations, and both are currently politically competitive. Like Georgia and North Carolina, the two desert states are both rated Lean Red. However, they have very different political histories. Like Georgia, Arizona has long been Republican but Biden flipped it in 2020 with a mere 10,457 votes. (0.3%). Nevada for decades had been Democratic, and went for Biden in 2020 by 2.4%. However, Nevada has been experiencing growing discontent with Democrats that has led it to trend Republican. To win these two states, and gain their 17 electoral votes, Arizona must continue to trend Blue, and the Red slide in Nevada must stop.