Updated October 9 |
Democrats need to hold as many Senate seats as possible in November. We currently have control of the upper chamber with 47 Democrats plus 4 Independents who caucus with or formally align with the Democratic party. Control of the Senate provides the majority party with significant leverage to enact its legislative agenda, influence the composition of the federal judiciary and executive cabinet, conduct oversight, and shape public policy in alignment with its political ideology and electoral mandate.
We are almost certain to lose retiring Senator Joe Manchin’s seat, and Republicans don’t have any close at-risk races. To maintain control, we must win every competitive race and hold the White House, giving each party 50 votes with the vice president as a tiebreaker. Even if we lose leadership, holding ground could establish a solid position to take back the Senate in the 2026 midterms. It is improbable that Republicans will gain enough seats for cloturing filibusters this year (cloture requires 60 votes), and we want to ensure they are not within striking distance in 2026.
Here’s an updated snapshot of the seats in play:
Tossups (Our efforts can make a powerful impact)
Pure Tossup
Tossup-Lean D
Tossup-Lean D
Lean Democratic (Seats that look hopeful but are still at risk)
Lean Republican (Not trending our way, but we have a shot)
Lean R-Likely R (within grasp)
Lean R-Solid R (longshot)
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