With only four weeks left until the November general election, it’s time to check in on our House Strategy. Democrats only need to flip a net of five seats to regain the majority, which is very doable considering that Democrats continue to outperform the polls. However, at the same time, we must protect incumbent Democrats from Republican challenges.
Our strategy has been to concentrate on races in our battleground states in order to utilize a “nesting strategy.” A nesting strategy is the practice of prioritizing our work in states where there is an electoral vote for Biden, a Senate seat, and various House seats.
It’s important to realize that these ratings groups have similar problems as polls. There is a lag between what is happening in the electorate and their posted ratings. They also have a difficult time measuring how women’s rage about Dobbs will affect the election; i.e. their historical models may not describe the current electorate at all. In addition, just like in 2022, the pundits are not including the considerable input of grassroots volunteers like ourselves. We still have 24 races rated toss-up. We’re still in the “margin of effort.” So let’s keep working!
There are a few specifics we can talk about. We have been watching the Cook Political Ratings all year. Comparing their ratings from September 6 to the June ratings, we see some movement:
- Peltola (AK-AL) has moved from Lean Democratic to Toss-up.
- Steel (CA-45) has moved from Lean Republican to Toss-up.
- Bacon (NE-02) has moved from Lean Republican to Toss-up.
- Bobert (CO-03) has moved from Lean Republican to Likely Republican.
Ballotpedia has a useful summary of the House races which compares the four major ratings systems: The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, Decision Desk HQ and The Hill, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball as of September 2024. It’s interesting to look at where the groups diverge in their ratings:
- Schweikert (AZ-01) – split between toss-up and Lean Republican
- Ciscomani (AZ-06)- split between two toss-ups, Lean and Likely Republican by the other two.
- Lawler (NY-17) – rated four different ways from Lean Dem. to Lean Rep.
- Molinaro (NY-19) – rated toss-up to Lean Rep.
A bright spot: Alabama (02) is an open seat in a newly drawn district after much litigation. It is considered Likely Democrat. This is considered a flip from Red to Blue!
The fight for control of the US House remains incredibly tight. We must keep working through Election Day, and then curing ballots in the week after. Donations are still crucial, as candidates scramble for last minute mailers, phonebanks, textbanks, and materials for canvassing. Force Multiplier has an easily customizable donation link. The candidates on their Impact Slate have the most need, but Force Multiplier also has a list of other candidates that they are watching closely. You can also see our battleground candidates on TurnPurple2Blue’s donation page.
Let’s continue our good work!