It seems that the MAGA takeover of the Republican party is nearly complete. The vicious infighting is driving more early retirements – Representatives are leaving immediately, not just declining to run for re-election (although there are plenty of those too). Bill Johnson (R-OH) and Ken Buck (R-CO) led the departures, and now Mike Gallagher (R-WI) will leave on April 19, a date chosen to prevent a special election and leave the seat open. This reduces the Republican majority in the House to one – they can lose one vote and still have the majority. Rep. Buck has hinted that two more resignations may come.
It is still unlikely that the majority will flip to Democrats though. Democrats are expected to win a safe seat vacated by Brian Higgens in NY’s April special election. But three Republican vacancies will be filled by special elections in the coming months: Kevin McCarthy in California, Bill Johnson of Ohio and Ken Buck of Colorado. These are all safe Republican seats.
Focus on California Activate America has just announced a new campaign for Adam Gray (CA-13). The Republican incumbent won by only 564 votes in 2022. This seat seems eminently flippable. Why write for this race? Well, various articles have recently pinpointed a serious problem in our electorate – only about 15% are paying attention. So we can’t expect any changes to happen by themselves.
Focus on Nevada Activate America is writing to protect incumbent US House Democrats Dina Titus, Steven Horsford, and Susie Lee. This plays well into our nested strategy; while protecting these house seats, we will also garner votes for Senator Jackie Rosen and President Biden in this very purple state. An interesting characteristic of Nevada is that the population changes quickly – so the power of incumbency is less. We need to work to protect these seats.
I completely agree with Barbara’s Game Plan! This is definitely the core strategy for winning 2024. And, make no mistake, we must win to save our democracy. Turn Purple 2 Blue Groups have already sent over 22,000 postcards with these goals, and I hope we get to 100,000!
But if you have some bandwidth to devote to protecting Democrats in other states and working for the future, there is valuable work to be done. People have special interests in different states – maybe you lived there for a time, or you have family there. People have special interests in different topics, too – maybe you will write for any school board or any abortion rights initiative. There’s a huge community of postcard writers passionately writing for local or other races that could bring up-ballot votes to win the Presidency, Senate, and House. It’s good to focus on what you are passionate about, and we can’t all work on the same thing.
I attended a Postcards for Democracy Zoom this week and found a wonderful group of people writing for local races and states that are not getting the full battleground treatment this year. From school boards to statehouses, the results of these races affect the daily lives of Americans, and we need to support democracy at every level. Bonus: by supporting these races today, we build an infrastructure and support system for the future, even if we don’t win. One thing we have definitely learned is that it takes years of concentrated effort to take back the gerrymandered statehouses. This is where we start.
An easy place to begin is Postcards to Voters. This organization is fantastic – and unique in that it is set up for individual writers to easily get addresses for postcards that must be sent within three days. You can get as few as four addresses and as many as 50 at a time. They are very strict about the three-day mailing time, so it’s better to request a smaller amount. If this interests you, you could budget some of your postcarding efforts here. I can help you get blank postcards at a much lower rate than Amazon, just email me at Christine@IndivisibleActon.org for details. You would be responsible for requesting the addresses and buying stamps.
Latest success: Alabama’s special election for the statehouse Democrat Marilyn Lands crushed her MAGA opponent by campaigning on reproductive rights. Postcards are ideal for special elections, and Postcards to Voters reports that “Two thousand one hundred sixty Postcards to Voters volunteers wrote 26,361 cards to boost Democratic turnout.”
People ask me all the time about long-shot races – especially when the Republican in office is especially hated (looking at you, Ted Cruz). These races always have a lot of press and a lot of fundraising asks claiming that the challengers are sooooo close! It is true that the demographic changes in red states will eventually benefit us, but we can’t sit back and wait. We need to build awareness, and donations to grassroots groups are essential in these states. Postcards can build solidarity and community among Democrats.
Markers for Democracy is a good source for Unicorn races!
Florida is intriguing this year. We were very disappointed by Val Demmings’ loss in 2022, but this year Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is making a good push against Rick Scott. On April 1st, the Florida State Supreme Court not only allowed the Abortion Rights initiative on the ballot, they greenlighted a 6 week ban. Remember the 6 weeks starts from the first day of your last period – so most women do not even know that they are pregnant. This race is moving out of “Hail Mary” territory.
Texas- talk about a Hail Mary! No Democrat has won a statewide race in Texas in 30 years, although Beto came within 3 points in 2018. Texas is rife with corruption, and they continue to vote for MAGA candidates even after mass shootings, indictments, and deaths from mismanagement of the power grid. You still could consider local races to help protect the Democratic cities of Austin, Dallas, and Houston, which are constantly under attack from the Republican supermajority.
I recently joined a new group called Markers for Democracy, which will give us access to these types of races. With this group, I can provide you with custom packets of addresses, postcards, and stamps. If you are interested, email Christine@IndivisibleActon.org.
The path to protecting the senate majority still is very narrow. We must protect Jon Tester (MT), Jacky Rosen (NV), Sherrod Brown (OH), Bob Casey (PA) and Tammy Baldwin (WI). We must win the two open seats for Democrats Ruben Gallego (AZ) and Elissa Slotkin (MI). Even without a majority in the House, the value of the Senate majority is priceless: Judicial confirmations, Cabinet confirmations, and protections from fraudulent MAGA impeachments.
Some other possibilities have been in the news lately.
Maryland Senate Race Republican Larry Hogan has entered the senate race in Maryland. Democrats will choose their candidate in the primary on May 14th. While Cook Political rates this race as “likely Democrat,” Hogan is a popular moderate with good name recognition. Early polls show him in the lead. However the same poll also shows that Marylanders prefer Democratic control of the Senate. We need to watch this one closely.
Although not up for re-election until 2028, Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) recently said that she will not vote for Trump and teased the possibility of leaving the Republican party. She has a good track record of fighting against radicals – in 2010 she won as a write-in candidate after a primary loss to a Tea Party candidate. Could she help us retain the majority? Too early to tell, but fun to imagine.
For postcard distributors like me, a practical Game Plan for 2024 is essential! In this election year, we have a very specific job to do and only months to do it in – to make sure we (1) keep a Democrat in the White House, (2) hold onto the Senate, and (3) flip the House. If we are unsuccessful with these objectives, it is unlikely that our other goals will be achieved in the coming years. We must make all our actions count.
Planning for this critical year must take into account that political priorities do change by year and election cycle. To quote the popular 1965 Byrds song: ”To everything there is a season and a time to every purpose.” So projects that might be very helpful in one year might not have the same impact in the next. And some types of projects are more critical at some points in the election year: for example, voter registration is more effective earlier in the year than later.
My top goal is to find postcard projects that have both high impact and high effectiveness. Studies show that grassroots activism can have the greatest impact in Toss-up races. So no “Hail Marys” from me, I’m afraid; I’ll be looking for those close races where we are likely to make a real difference with our postcards.
Here are types of projects I will give high priority to in 2024:
VOTING: Voter registration, Vote By Mail (primarily used by Democrats), Get Out the Vote (GOTV), and any other voting information (voting locations, hours, details). This is a top priority issue – a good number of your postcards will translate directly into votes!
ABORTION AND REPRODUCTIVE RIGHTS: Although there are lots of important issues that Democrats are associated with, the one that truly defines us in 2024 is abortion and reproductive freedom. The overwhelming majority of Americans support us on this issue. It will bring us a great many votes, even among voters who do not describe themselves as Democrats. In Florida now, reproductive rights is on the November ballot. It is looking like a similar initiative may be on the ballot in Arizona. Other states are following suit. There is tremendous power here, and the issue is likely to buoy our candidates
CONGRESSIONAL RACES:
For the Senate, We have to protect our majority, so this means protecting Democratic incumbents and flipping Republican seats. Every single Senate seat is important, so I would focus on Toss-up races unless there were other factors, such as abortion, directly influencing the race in certain states.
House – Democrats have a strong chance to flip the Republican’s razor-thin control over the House, but we have to be strategic. Here are two ways to get the most “bang for the buck”:
Employing a “nesting strategy” in states where key House and Senate seats are both in play: increasing turnout for the Senate seat also benefits House and Presidential races in that state. Arizona works well with our nesting strategy, but several other states work as well, including NV and PA.
Focusing on states like NY and CA, where we lost seats that we should have kept in 2022. That year, many Republicans won by very small margins in districts that Biden had carried in 2020. We have begun to reverse these losses (eg Tom Suozzi, NY-03) in 2024, demonstrating the effectiveness of grassroots efforts.
Grassroots groups are the champions of Democratic politics. They help fill a gap between political processes and local communities. These organizations are driven by folks who are invested in their neighborhoods and are vital because of their authenticity and local focus.
Souls to the Polls is a bloc of voters addressing major issues facing Black families in Wisconsin.
Over the years, we’ve heard feedback that voters sometimes distrust and resent outsiders trying to sway political views. Rooted in the communities they serve, grassroots workers earn voters’ trust. When we follow local leadership and support their specific requests, we are more likely to have a positive impact.
Grassroots groups don’t just pop by for tea during election cycles. They are on the ground year-round to advocate for community concerns and interests. Often, they have lobbied for kitchen-table issues that make a real difference to voters in their districts, supporting education and healthcare reforms, environmental initiatives, and social justice causes.
Grassroots organizations foster a culture of civic engagement and build a sense of empowerment and trust among voters. Our democracy thrives when citizens actively participate in the political process. Wealthy outsider volunteers can’t do this work; grassroots workers need and deserve our support.
I encourage you to visit our Grassroots Groups page to learn more about the impact of our favorite organizations. While you’re there, please consider donating.
NEAZ Native Dems use personal vehicles for community work.
More to cheer about… Governor Tony Evers just ushered in a new day of democracy in Wisconsin by signing a new set of state legislative maps into state law. This legislative victory overturned one of the more egregious, extreme partisan gerrymanders in American political history. Republicans, in 2011, drew district lines that guaranteed that even landslide election losses wouldn’t cost them their majorities. Now in 2024, new maps, graded “A” for fairness by nonpartisan observer organizations (current maps scored an “F”) are the law of the land and will restore fairness and power of the vote to this key purple state.
Steady work by activists and voters brought about these fair maps. Ben Wikler, Chair of the Wisconsin Dems, described the continuous effort: “In 2018, 2020, and 2023, voters built a new progressive majority on the State Supreme Court. By electing Governor Evers and preventing GOP supermajorities, they stopped hard-right maps from being signed into law. And last year, a civic uprising prevented Republicans from impeaching Janet Protasiewicz. …Every one of those fights was a necessary step towards this moment.”
Your postcards, phone calls, texts, and donations helped bring about this victory by supporting the election of Judge Janet Protasiewicz to the WI Supreme Court. Her election flipped the court, which then could consider the issue of gerrymandering legally and equitably.
So pat yourselves on the back, celebrate with your Wisconsin allies, and keep working for justice and democracy. Once again, your activism, determination and hard work have paid off in protecting and strengthening our democracy!
Democracy is at stake for this Presidential Election. You may know people who are worried about many other crises, and of course, those are all important too. But we need democracy to solve them. Abortion Rights? Climate Crisis? Immigrant Rights? LGBTQ Rights? Healthcare? Social Security? Student Loan Relief? Global Human Rights? Everything hinges on keeping a democracy that is accountable to voters.
If you, or someone you know, is thinking of staying home: that is a vote for Trump.
If you, or someone you know, is thinking of voting third party: that is a vote for Trump.
Trump has been very clear about what he will do if he seizes power. A vote for Trump is a vote for Authoritarianism.
TP2B has assembled a collection of articles about the dangers of Authoritarianism. They are meant as a reference in case you have a friend or family member that doesn’t see the difference between Democrats and Republicans. When talking to people about the dangers of a Trump presidency remember to:
Show empathy for the issue they are worried about. Ask them how they think Trump would help that problem. (No vote or third party is a vote for Trump)
Find a shared value and lead with that.
Talk about a specific problem rather than broad assertions about democracy. You could talk about another issue that you both care about.
This website discusses Project 2025, which is the published plan of the radicals supporting Trump.
The plan is chilling. Punishing and deporting non-Christians. Removing expertise and neutrality from government agencies. Eradicating DEI programs. Punishing and legislating the bodies of LGBTQ people. Punishing and legislating the bodies of Women. Ending Climate Change policies. Ending military Affirmative Action. Destroying Public Education. Abandoning democracy and people in other countries.
Other Resources:
The Atlantic Jan/Feb 2024 issue was devoted to the danger of Trump. You can read or listen to most of the articles at If Trump Wins. In addition to Democracy, various authors lay out the disaster that Trump would be for Climate, Immigrants, Science, and Women. There are articles on how Trump will use the judiciary and military and how he plans to punish blue cities and towns, roll back civil rights and rewrite history curriculum.
Abortion, Every Day The Anti-Abortion Blueprint: An Oklahoma Bill Lays Out Republican’s National Abortion Strategy by Jessica Valenti The radical right’s plan to define fertilized eggs as persons, thereby prohibiting IUDs, emergency contraception, and IVF procedures, as well as abortion. Their ultimate goal is to ban contraception all together.
It was a decisive victory: Suozzi won by 7.8 points. (Santos had won by 8 points, so that’s a swing of 15.8 points!). And in a snowstorm. Robert Hubbell wrote on February 14, 2024:
“We cannot become complacent because of Suozzi’s victory. Rather, the lesson is that we must replicate the enormous effort that went into securing Suozzi’s victory.” Even CNN recognized that an army of grassroots volunteers helped Suozzi:
Grassroots progressive groups like Engage Long Island, which is part of the Indivisible network, have been feverishly knocking on doors – taking their case directly to like-minded neighbors. And Suozzi has massively outraised Pilip, taking in $4.5 million to her $1.3 million, according to Federal Election Commission filings that cover the beginning of October through January 24 of this year.
Tonight, we all owe a debt of gratitude to the grassroots volunteers at Indivisible. PostCardsToVoters (sent 202,236 fully handwritten postcards to Democrats in NY-03), Markers for Democracy, Swing Left, and dozens of other groups that did the hard work of getting out the vote to ensure victory! You are all heroes!”
Suozzi said in his victory speech: “I want to thank the grassroots folks all over the country and here on Long Island and New York. During this campaign we did 2 million phone calls, hundreds of thousands of postcards, hundreds of thousands of texts, 150,000 door knockers. It’s just amazing how many people contributed to our success at the grassroots level. I mean, it’s so humbling to me to have had so many people help in this campaign.”
We can’t say it any better than that, except to add that our TP2B groups wrote 5,375 postcards to help the Suozzi campaign. Thanks to everyone who helped make this happen!
The MA state legislature has been ranked the least effective of all 50 states. Even with a two year cycle and one party rule, leadership in the legislature manages to strangle most popular bills. Long gone are the days of groundbreaking bills like Romneycare and Same Sex Marriage. Massachusetts has lost its mantle of Democratic leadership. We must demand better, for our state and our nation.
California, like New York, has some very blue districts and some very red. In 2022, Democrats ceded five US House seats in districts that Biden won. That’s the same margin that we lost control of the US House by, we won’t leave these districts behind again. Their primary is March 5, 2024, which will also determine the Democratic nominee for the US Senate.
