Democrats need to hold as many Senate seats as possible in November. We currently have control of the upper chamber with 47 Democrats plus 4 Independents who caucus with or formally align with the Democratic party. Control of the Senate provides the majority party with significant leverage to enact its legislative agenda, influence the composition of the federal judiciary and executive cabinet, conduct oversight, and shape public policy in alignment with its political ideology and electoral mandate.
We are almost certain to lose retiring Senator Joe Manchin’s seat, and Republicans don’t have any close at-risk races. To maintain control, we must win every competitive race and hold the White House, giving each party 50 votes with the vice president as a tiebreaker. Even if we lose leadership, holding ground could establish a solid position to take back the Senate in the 2026 midterms. It is improbable that Republicans will gain enough seats for cloturing filibusters this year (cloture requires 60 votes), and we want to ensure they are not within striking distance in 2026.
Pennsylvania, the Keystone State, lives up to its name in the 2024 election. With 19 electoral votes, it stands tied with Illinois as the fifth most influential state in the Electoral College, trailing only California, Texas, Florida, and New York. As the only one of these states in play for electoral votes this year, Pennsylvania is critical in determining the next president, making it a hotbed of political activity and a must-win for both major parties.
Recent polls suggest that Democrats have a slight edge in Pennsylvania, but there’s no room for complacency. The current margins are narrow and within the margin of error – or, as some call it, the “margin of effort.” This means that every vote counts, and every effort matters.
fivethirtyeight.com, Sept. 21, 2024
To understand why Pennsylvania is crucial, let’s look at the electoral math. Securing Pennsylvania is almost non-negotiable for a presidential candidate to reach the 270 electoral votes needed to win. If Democrats lose Pennsylvania, we would need to make up for it by winning multiple Sunbelt states where Trump currently holds an advantage. Conversely, preventing Trump from winning Pennsylvania significantly limits his potential paths to victory. As noted in a New York Times article titled “How Harris Has Completely Upended the Presidential Race, in 14 Maps,” the dynamics of the race are shifting, and Pennsylvania’s role is central to these changes. Pennsylvania is not just a battleground; it’s the biggest in-play prize on the map.
The importance of Pennsylvania goes beyond the presidential race. The state’s down-ballot races are equally significant in reclaiming the House and holding the Senate. Political momentum and voter engagement in Pennsylvania can impact candidates at every level. Like bicyclists drafting behind one another to conserve energy and maximize efficiency, political campaigns can benefit from collective efforts and party momentum.
Indivisible Acton Area’s Shaw Yang was in Pennsylvania a few weeks ago. He said, “It feels so rewarding talking to the incoming U Penn freshmen and registering them to vote. It is their first time voting, and they may become lifelong voters.” As we push forward in this critical election period, our allies are organizing additional trips and outreach efforts to strengthen our position. They have planned for driving and housing logistics. Shaw has already signed up to return to Pennsylvania and encourages you to join in one of the opportunities below.
Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes make it a key battleground in this election. The stakes are high, and the path to victory for both parties runs through the Keystone State. Every vote, every effort, and every tactic is crucial as we approach Election Day. Make sure to add Pennsylvania to your activism list!
Michigan is a critical battleground this election season, with its 15 electoral votes and tossup status across the Presidential, Senate, and two key House races. This combination presents a unique opportunity to make a significant impact with strategic efforts. When multiple races are up for grabs, our actions have the potential to shift the balance decisively.
Washington Post, Sept 3, 2024
Recent trends indicate a positive shift following Harris’ rise to the top of the ticket and the Democratic National Convention, giving us a real chance in a state where Trump previously had the advantage. Now is the moment to intensify our efforts and leverage the momentum to achieve a Democratic trifecta. When we fight, we win!
Strategic Focus: Key Races to Watch
Elissa Slotkin – US Senate
As a current U.S. Representative, Slotkin’s Senate candidacy is crucial. Her proven track record includes fighting for key legislation supporting working families, advancing manufacturing, and protecting reproductive rights. Her departure from the House seat also creates an opening we must seize.
Hertel, former Director of Legislative Affairs under Governor Whitmer, has a history of passing impactful legislation, including tax cuts and reproductive rights protections. His candidacy for Slotkin’s vacated seat is an opportunity to continue this progress.
Rivet has made significant strides in the State Senate with tax cuts, childcare reforms, and gun violence prevention. Her Congressional run offers a chance to extend these vital reforms.
The Path Forward: Channel your inner Michelle Obama and “Do Something!”
To seize this opportunity, we need your active participation. Here’s how you can contribute:
Volunteer: Engage in postcarding and phone banking to register likely Democratic voters and get these voters to the polls to vote for Dems up and down the ticket. Your interaction with voters can tip the lever in these crucial races.
Donate: Financial contributions to candidates like Elissa Slotkin, Curtis Hertel, and Kristen McDonald Rivet amplify their campaign efforts and ensure they have the resources to compete effectively.
Spread the Word: Use your voice and networks to raise awareness about the importance of these races. Know someone in Michigan? Every conversation counts in mobilizing supporters and getting out the vote; conversations with friends and family members can impact election results.
Now is the time to act. We can turn Michigan from a tossup into a victory with your support. Every effort counts, and together, we can achieve meaningful change. We’re not going back!
With momentum and enthusiasm on our side, Democrats are feeling more confident that we can defeat Trump at the polls. Feeling cornered, he is amping up the rhetoric, tearing down trust in the integrity of our elections. So let’s look at the current protections we have from another MAGA coup attempt.
1. FEDERAL LEVEL PROTECTIONS: We did pass the Electoral Count Reform and Presidential Transition Improvement Act of 2022 to clarify some of the procedures exploited by Trump in his first coup attempt. This bipartisan bill standardized and clarified who in each state is responsible to certify the vote and the electors in the Certificate of Ascertainment. It standardizes in what courts and how quickly claims made by candidates will be heard by the judicial system. The law explicitly states that the Vice Presidential role is “solely ministerial,” requires any disputes to be in writing and limited to two circumstances: One, that the electors of a state were not lawfully certified, and two, that an elector’s vote was not “regularly given.” These objections must be signed by one-fifth of the House AND one-fifth of the Senate. (previously, only one person’s signature was required.) Finally, the law clarifies how candidates will receive transition funding in the event of a contested election.
2.STATE-LEVEL PROTECTIONS: Both MAGA andDemocrats are amassing legal teams in the states, regardless of whether or not they are a swing state. In red states, we expect lawsuits and collusion by Red state governors and judges to create a wedge of attack for the larger election. In swing states, we expect MAGA to exploit small margins into attacks on the integrity of the elections. We can expect attacks in Blue states too, because of the radicalization of MAGA Republicans in those states.
Other organizations are working on protecting the count at the state level – we don’t have to depend just on the Department of Justice. This June, the ACLU rolled out an impressive voting and abortion rights Program, investing 25 million dollars in voter education and litigation preparation. Since 2020, Marc Elias’ organization Democracy Docket has fought election lawsuits in most states regarding gerrymandering, purging voters, certifying elections, voter intimidation and ballot initiatives. The Harris team has embraced this strong approach by hiring Marc Elias mid-August. (Biden’s team had disagreed, preferring a more selective defense.) His hiring is a long overdue acknowledgement that institutionalism and norms are not strong enough to defeat aggressive MAGA legal attacks. Elias is not afraid of taking these issues to the public, whose awareness is limited due to our fragmented and compromised news media. For more information, see his website, or subscribe to his free newsletter. You can also donate to support his work.
3. Government Protections. There has been a lot of speculation regarding Republican Speaker Mike Johnson’s possible actions. He was a leader in the 2020 attempt to overthrow the election, so he deserves watching. However, there will be two important differences in 2024: We will have a Democratic President in control of the military and it is likely that the election will flip the House to Democratic control, turning him into a minority leader. House members are sworn in on January 4th, before the January 6th certification. The timing is close, I’m sure Indivisible and others will plan rallies to make sure the rules are followed.
4. Grassroots Protections: One of our best protections against a second Trump coup attempt is to win elections by larger margins. The larger the margin, the harder it is for MAGA to blame their losses on illegitimate voting or tampering. Remember, even though the facts are on our side, MAGA will use fearmongering and lies to activate their base. It’s especially easy for them to do this in tight races, where the counting of mail-in ballots causes the results to take a few days to tabulate. We will keep working through election day. Postcarding will likely end mid to late October and we will pivot to canvassing, phonebanking, and textbanking.
I am working on voter outreach, but what else can I do?
Make sure your relatives in other states are still registered MAGA organizations have been busily purging the rolls by the tens of thousands, submitting lists of intermittent voters to like minded MAGA Governors and Secretary of States (See Ohio and Georgia). Often people do not find out that they have been purged until they try to cast a ballot. The easiest way to fight this is to simply re-register, but people need to check their registration status now. Arizona has a particularly sneaky way to disenfranchise registered voters. In Arizona, a person is not required to submit proof of citizenship with the voter registration form to vote in Arizona, but failure to do so means the person will only be eligible to vote in federal elections (known as a “federal only” voter). Federal Only voters can vote for President, US Senate and US House, but nothing else….including abortion rights initiatives and statewide races. An estimated 35,000 people in Arizona are Federal Only voters. The Democratic winning margin for the 2020 Arizona gubernatorial race was just 17,117. See what they did there?
Make sure your relatives in other states know how to vote There are too many regulations to list here, but questions to ask are:
Is ID required and what can I use? Many states will not accept Student ID for voting.
Do I need to sign up to vote by mail for every election? This is a common way for MAGA to prevent voting. People think they are signed up to vote by mail, but they never receive anything because they are supposed to sign up again, every election, or year, or some other arbitrary time.
What kind of drop boxes are available, or when do I have to mail my ballot in order for it to get counted? Republicans have pulled out all the stops to limit drop boxes and not allow ballots that arrive after election day, regardless of the postmark. Do not wait until the last minute to return your vote-by-mail ballot.
Will early voting be more convenient for me? We often ask people to “make a plan to vote.” Early voting can be very helpful, but it requires advance planning. The polling locations and hours are often different from election day. Ask your friends and relatives to put voting on their list!
Democrats have the momentum now. We must continue to convert enthusiasm to Democratic votes up and down the ballot. We also know that MAGA Republicans will not hesitate to fight dirty and they will cause disruptions in as many states as they can. That is why our goal is to win by bigger margins, and why we will be working right up to election day (and curing ballots in the week after). When we fight, we win!
Awareness of the radical plans in Project 2025 continues to break through to the public. There has been pushback, which is easily debunked.
Yes, Trump knows all about this and most of architects of the 902 page plan worked in his adminstration. See The Guardian, August 12, 2024. Trump is simply lying now because of the backlash.
Yes, Facebook has been sneakily censoring Project 2025 posts. They have been using a conservative group to “fact-check” posts. After getting caught, they seem chastened. Keep sharing and exposing these plans.
Trump has been trying to distance himself from the Abortion and IVF bans in this document, and it’s confusing people in battleground states just now tuning in. In Jessica Valenti’s newsletter, Abortion Every Day, she talks about the weasily redefining of the word “ban” by MAGA. Bottom line, if there is an exception, no matter how unlikely or how many barriers there are, they say its not a ban. But with these vague and threatening laws physicians are erring on the side of NO TREATMENT.
We need to keep sharing and exposing these ideas. Here are some easy options!
You can take a screen shot or print this to make sharing easy. People have also talked about taping messages to the doors in women’s bathroom stalls-this would be a good option for that.
This website is easy to use and share. It starts with what is important to you.
One strange phenomenoen is that Project 2025 is so radical, so sweeping, so anti-American that many people shrug it off, saying “that can’t possibly happen.” Focus groups show that white women are very susceptible to this kind of thinking and to get through to them, we often have to water down the actual language in Project 2025. David Pepper has tried to make the information more relatable by writing “2025, a novel” to illustrate what American life would look life when Trump implements it.
The so-called midwestern “Blue Wall” states – Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania – are must-wins for the Democrats! With their 46 electoral votes, added to those from more reliably blue states, we can reach the 270 required for winning the presidency. These states have been solidly Democratic since 1992, except in 2016 when Trump flipped all three states by a combined margin of 80,000 total votes to win the election. Then in 2020, Biden took all three states back in another narrow victory. Currently, all three are rated “Toss Ups.”
Electoral votes:
Georgia – 16
North Carolina -15
Region – Coastal South:
Georgia and North Carolina are two battleground states that can be game-changers with their combined 31 electoral votes. Both are currently rated Lean Red. Both states have both large urban and rural populations and large Black constituencies throughout the state. Winning margins again are small: in 2020, Biden won Georgia with less than 12,000 votes (0.23%) while North Carolina went for Trump, who won by 1.3%.
Arizona and Nevada share large Latinx and indigenous populations, and both are currently politically competitive. Like Georgia and North Carolina, the two desert states are both rated Lean Red. However, they have very different political histories. Like Georgia, Arizona has long been Republican but Biden flipped it in 2020 with a mere 10,457 votes. (0.3%). Nevada for decades had been Democratic, and went for Biden in 2020 by 2.4%. However, Nevada has been experiencing growing discontent with Democrats that has led it to trend Republican. To win these two states, and gain their 17 electoral votes, Arizona must continue to trend Blue, and the Red slide in Nevada must stop.
Black Voters Matter‘s goal is to increase power in marginalized, predominantly Black communities. We believe that effective voting allows a community to determine its own destiny. We agree with the words of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. when he said, “Power at its best is love implementing the demands of justice, and justice at its best is power correcting everything that stands against love.”
We seek to achieve our goals with the following 5 core beliefs in mind:
The key to effective civic engagement and community power is understanding, respecting and supporting local infrastructure.
BLACK VOTERS MATTER not only on election day, but on the 364 days between election days as well. This means we must support individuals and organizations that are striving to obtain social justice throughout the year.
BLACK VOTERS MATTER *everywhere*, including rural counties and smaller cities/towns that are often ignored by candidates, elected officials, political parties and the media.
In order for Black voters to matter, we must utilize authentic messaging which speaks to our issues, connects with our hopes and affirms our humanity.
The leadership, talent and commitment demonstrated by Black women in particular must receive recognition and, more importantly, *investment* in order to flourish and multiply.
Tuesdays at 6 PM. Join Black Voters Matter every week as we gather to drive change through digital organizing. Our texting campaigns will give you the opportunity to engage residents across the U.S. while empowering them to make a positive impact in their communities. We already sent over 5 million text this year educating residents on local elections, environmental justice, police reform, and so much more! During the event we will provide training, discuss our latest texting campaign, and we will take action.
We always thought we were safer than everyone else. The United States had a centuries-old, stable democracy and a relatively isolated geography, giving the illusion that the country was protected from domestic or international threat. We were dead wrong.
This “Can’t-Happen-Here” illusion came crashing down on September 11, 2001. Despite forewarnings of terrorism abroad, many Americans assumed it wouldn’t happen here in the U.S. But the terrorists had judged correctly that America was wide open and defenseless due to our complacency, and they exploited our lack of precaution. Then, only twenty years later, we watched in horror and disbelief at an attempted coup in our Capitol – something that previously had seemed truly unimaginable. So IT CAN HAPPEN HERE…
Now flash-forward to another threat – fascism, now raising its head in Europe and other parts of the world. In the early 1900s, Mussolini’s Italian fascists imposed totalitarian rule and crushed political and intellectual opposition, while forcing traditional and Christian values on the population. A few years later, following Mussolini’s playbook, Hitler and his Nazi party added antisemitism, rampant nationalism, hatred of immigrants, and a “cult of violence.” SOUND FAMILIAR?
We have learned that fascist regimes operate by promoting fanatical nationalism, contempt for electoral democracy and political/cultural liberalism, and the rule of the elite at the expense of the masses. Again, SOUND FAMILIAR? It should – just see Project 2025, the MAGA vision of the future of the United States. If we Americans do not wake up to the fascist threat by Trump and his MAGA policies, history will repeat itself. We will again be caught flat-footed, as we were on 9/11 and on Jan 6. But this time we may lose our democracy. YES, IT CAN HAPPEN HERE. And it could, unless we work hard to prevent it. Read on…
With only four months left until the November general election, it’s time to check in on our House Strategy. Democrats only need to flip a net of five seats to regain the majority. This is very doable, considering that Democrats continue to outperform the polls. However, at the same time, we must protect incumbent Democrats from Republican challenges.
Our strategy has been to concentrate on races in our battleground states in order to utilize a “nesting strategy.” A nesting strategy is the practice of uplifting registration and messaging in a state where there is the most to be gained: the electoral vote for Biden, a Senate seat, various House seats and statewide offices. Let’s summarize the House races in the states that we are working in:
Arizona (primary Aug 6). We are watching two seats currently held by Republicans: Schweikert (AZ-01) and Ciscomani (AZ-06). Cook Political rates these as “toss up” There is a lot of activity in Arizona because of the Senate race and the Right to Abortion initiative which will be on the November ballot.
California. Many groups are concentrating on California because of the cluster of “Unrepresentatives,” Republicans defending House seats where Biden won in 2020. These include: Duarte (C-13), Vladao (C-22), Garcia (C-27) and Calvert (CA-41) all rated “toss up” by Cook Political. Steel (CA-45) is rated as “lean Republican.” State Senator Dave Min won the primary for CA-47 (Katie Porter’s vacated seat), which is rated as “Lean Democrat.”
Michigan (primary Aug 6). There are two seats rated as “toss up” and both democratic incumbents are not running. Elissa Slotkin (MI-07) resigned to run for Senate. Dan Kildee (MI-08) announced his retirement. Protecting these seats doesn’t count for the five needed to flip the House and these seats are vulnerable.
New York New York also has a cluster of “Unrepresentatives,” Republicans defending House seats where Biden won in 2020. Republicans D’Esposito (NY-04), Lawler (NY-17) and Molinaro (NY-19) are rated as “toss-up” by Cook Political and are ripe for defeat. We already flipped NY-03, with Suozzi taking a decisive victory in the special election earlier this year. He still has to run again this November.
Nevada We have been writing for Democratic incumbents in Nevada because the electorate there changes rapidly. We have two “Likely Democrat” seats to protect: Titus (N-01) and Horsford (NV-04). Lee (NV-03) is rated “lean Democrat.” Protecting these seats doesn’t count for the 5 needed to flip the House.
Ohio We have two seats in danger here. Kaptur (OH-09) and Sykes (OH-13) both need to be protected and both are rated as “toss-ups.” Protecting these seats doesn’t count for the 5 needed to flip the House.
Pennsylvania There are three competitive seats, all currently held by Democrats. Delusio (PA-17) is rated as a “lean Democrat.” Wild (PA-07) and Cartwright (PA-08) are rated as “toss-up.” Protecting these seats doesn’t count for the 5 needed to flip the House.
Wisconsin (Primary 8/13) Wisconsin is a purple state, with control between Democrats and Republicans constantly shifting. In 2024,there is one competitive House race, Van Orden (WI-03), rated as “lean Republican.” This could be as serendipitous flip as we write for the Senate seat there.
There are other isolated House races that are possible flips or need protecting in Colorado, Maine, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oregon, and Washington. Many of these races are included in Force Multiplier’s slate of candidates. If you are interested in reading more about these candidates or donating to them, check out Force Multiplier.
