Update: 10/8/22 AZ Court blocks enforcement of total abortion ban.
Let’s check in on Arizona after working hard for them all year.
Senate: Democrat Mark Kelly seems to be pulling ahead of radical MAGA Blake Masters. Republicans have pulled $9.6 million dollars of ads from the state. There will be a debate Oct 6, and early voting starts Oct 12. The latest poll shows Kelly ahead by 8 points.
Governor: Democrat Katie Hobbs seems to be virtually tied with radical MAGA Kari Lake. However the poll cited here took place just as the latest assault on women’s rights was happening. We need a concerted effort to get out the vote.
Secretary of State: Democrat Adrian Fontes opposes radical MAGA Mark Finchem, who refuses to acknowledge that Joe Biden won the presidential election. AZCentral has endorsed Fontes, saying that “Arizona’s next secretary of state is critical to the future of democracy. Whoever wins not only will serve as Arizona’s elections chief, but also will have a strong bully pulpit to influence how elections are carried out, how votes are tallied and how elections are validated.” Polls aren’t very predictive in this race: they are showing 40% of independents as undecided.
State Legislature: We only need one seat in each in the State House and State Senate to tie for control. The States Project has designated Arizona as one of their key states, concentrating on a state senate race. Once again concerned citizens like you are doing what the Democratic party failed to do: spend money early on key state legislative races.
Conclusion: While the Senate race seems to be in hand (Cook Political now calls this race “lean democrat”), the state level races are a toss-up. The problem is that Arizona is a hotbed of MAGA extremism around election denial and abortion rights.
Both Robert Hubbell and Heather Cox Richardson have addressed the shocking developments out of Arizona at the end of September, and you can read their essays below. Republicans have banned all abortions in Arizona through a combination of legislation and judicial intervention. Judges allowed an 150 year old law (enacted before Arizona was even a state) to be resurrected. This archaic law, combined with the legislature’s 15 week abortion ban, effectively bans all abortions in Arizona, even when the woman’s life is in danger.
This recent development is not captured in the polls yet. Will the stripping of their health care and bodily autonomy drive Arizona women to vote? Keep working, and stay tuned.