House Races to Watch

Facts – There are a total of 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, and all terms expire every two years. Currently, there are 217 seats held by Republicans, 212 by Democrats, one by an Independent (who caucuses with the Republican party), and 5 vacant seats. Democrats need 218 seats to attain the majority. This number serves as the absolute threshold required to control the floor and pass legislation. So both flipping and defending vulnerable seats in the House are high priorities for the midterms.

Actions you can take – House races are well-suited for grassroots organizing! These races are very different from Senate races in that voter numbers are much smaller. Nationally, average turnouts per election are on the order of 250,000 voters per district. In close races, differences between candidates can be miniscule – in 2024, Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks won her House race by a jaw-dropping 6 votes! These close races are perfect targets for grassroots organizing – whether it be donations, postcards, canvassing, or other tactics – where our efforts have the greatest impact. Here are some of the House races where you can make a real difference. 

registered voters are split evenly among Republicans, Democrats, and Independents/unaffiliated voters. 

As a result of this close division, Arizona is notorious for tight elections. National races there often get decided by less than 1-3 percentage points. In the 2020 presidential election, Biden’s smallest margin of victory in any state was in Arizona, where he won by only 0.3% (10,457 votes). 

With incredibly tight election margins, this battleground state is one of the very best targets for activism. Close races are where grassroots efforts can have the most impact. 

AZ-01 Open Seat (Northeastern part of Phoenix metropolitan area)

This affluent district has more registered Republicans than Democrats, but it more recently has shifted toward the political center. It was last represented by Republican David Schweikert, who decided to run for governor in 2026 but lost the primary. 

Democrat Amish Shah, a self-described moderate, is a practicing ER physician and former Arizona state representative. In the State House, he gained a reputation for his independent approach and bipartisan record. In 2024, he ran for the U.S. congressional AZ-01 seat, but lost to Schweikert, the incumbent. Shah decided to run again in 2026 and comfortably won his primary. 

For his Congressional campaign platform, Shah advocates for reproductive freedom, public education, and preserving voting rights, while opposing election denialism. He leverages his medical background to support universal healthcare coverage and lower prescription drug costs. He vows to protect Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security against federal budget cuts. 

Republican Jay Feely is a former football player who worked post-retirement as NFL reporter and analyst for CBS. He has no government experience, but he has the backing of Trump and the Republican national party. Also in his favor, he has high name recognition and fundraising ability. As drawbacks, he does not live in AZ-01, and his right-wing alignment could alienate independent voters in this moderate swing district.

Current polls either show Shah and Feely in a statistical tie or with Shah slightly in the lead. 

Libertarian Monica Alponte is not competitive against the two mainstream candidates, but her platform may draw votes from Feely. 

Cook rates the AZ-01 race as a Toss Up. 

AZ-06  (Southeastern Arizona, parts of Tucson, urban/rural mix)

AZ-06 is famous as one of the country’s most competitive districts. It is an evenly divided battleground with razor-thin voting margins. This was true for Republican Incumbent Juan Ciscomani, a nationalized U.S. citizen from Mexico who narrowly won the district in 2022 and 2024. A tight margin is expected in 2026 as well. 

In Washington, Ciscomani has been a mixed bag for his constituents. He’s been ranked highly as one of the most effective freshman lawmakers for introducing successful bills. However, his close alignment with Trump and party leadership conflicts with his district’s needs in healthcare and social programs. He currently faces intense backlash for accepting campaign contributions from congressional Republicans tied to sexual allegations and scandal. His favorability ratings are underwater. 

Democrat JoAnna Mendoza is a strong candidate with a good fit to the 6th Congressional District. She is a Latina veteran in a district that is 20% Hispanic and home to one of the largest veteran populations in the country. Her military experience showcases her leadership and service through deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan. Mendoza comes from deep local roots and a poor, rural background. She openly shares her past struggles with trauma and a 2012 DUI in order to connect with voters. With her strong fundraising ability, she has been outraising Ciscomani. 

Mendoza’s biggest political challenges are her lack of prior Congressional experience, misrepresentation of her progressive platform as “far-left”, and weaponization by conservative opponents of her past personal struggles as a character issue. 

Polls suggest a close race due to the deeply split electorate and Ciscomani’s high unfavorability ratings despite his incumbent advantage. 

Cook rates this race as a Toss Up. 

CA-22 (California’s Central Valley) – This redrawn district is considered a prize, as Democrats have long coveted it. Organizers for both parties are gearing up for a tough and expensive fight. CA-22 counted the third fewest ballots in the country during the last midterm election, so Democratic turnout is going to be absolutely critical to win this district!

In recent years, CA-22 shifted right with pro-Trump Hispanic voters, and for the past 10 years, the valley has been represented by Republican David Valadao. Now Valadao’s seat is in jeopardy, as the new CA-22 map drawn after Prop. 50 favors Democrats. Trump is unlikely to come to his rescue, as Valadao was one of the handful of Republican representatives to vote to impeach him in 2021 for his role in Jan 6.  Further weighing against him, Valadao voted for Trump’s cuts in Medicaid, while over half of his district receives Medicaid. This will not be passed over lightly during the race for the CA-22 seat.

Democrat Randy Villegas is the candidate running against incumbent Valadao. Villegas, a “proud son of immigrants,” is a political scientist, educator, and politician with deep roots to the community and a proven commitment to justice and equality. He is also a proud progressive and has been endorsed by Bernie Sanders, Ro Khanna, AOC, labor unions,  and by Indivisible. He rejects corporate PAC money and has successfully built a significant war chest from grassroots donors. 

In the June 2 CA top-two primary, Valadao attained the first place position, while the second position was split by the two Democratic candidates, Villegas and Jasmeet Bains. Defying political odds, Villegas defeated moderate Bains, who was backed by the Democratic establishment. The direct involvement of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) in Bain’s campaign showed poor judgement and was loudly decried as inappropriate as well as ineffective, particularly as their strategy of promoting centrist candidates has in the past failed miserably against Valadao. Villegas will now run against Valadao in the November general election, and the Democratic establishment is now behind him. Democratic turnout will be key for this race.

Cook rates this race a Toss Up. 

CA 48 Open seat (San Diego area) – Incumbent Republican Darrell Issa has decided not to run for re-election, leaving the district open. In the House, Issa is regarded as a staunchly partisan attack dog, and this deep red district was a good fit for him. However, redistricting has turned the district light blue and given Democrats a serious advantage, which discouraged Issa.

Unfortunately, Issa’s departure has opened the door for a strong challenger, who many think is better than Issa was. Republican Jim Desmond is a well-known local official with strong community ties, including fundraising connections. He also isn’t saddled with Issa’s close ties to Trump. He will be a formidable candidate, having taken the top position in the CA top-two primary on June 2. 

However, Desmond’s opponent, Democrat Marni von Wilpert, has her own strengths, including strong union and constituent support in addition to the redrawn district boundaries.  A lawyer and San Diego councilwoman, she is campaigning on the skyrocketing cost of living, reproductive rights, cleaning up corruption and defending democracy. She has won competitive elections and beaten Republicans before, and she will stand up to Trump in Congress. 

Cook rates this race Lean Democrat.

bankruptcies. As a result, in 2026 there are flip prospects for the U.S. Senate and two House seats, plus the Governor. Grassroots are most effective with close races like toss ups, and grassroots tactics can be even more effective when there are so many contestable seats. By increasing voter registration, grassroots organizations can increase voter turnout, which then can benefit all the Democrats on the ticket. This is what we need in Iowa.

Iowa’s 1st Congressional district covers the eastern part of the state, with a mix of agricultural communities and urban centers, including Iowa City and Davenport. It is a swing district, and the U.S. House race for IA-01 is considered competitive. The two candidates have faced each other before, and both are survivors of very close elections. Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks, the incumbent for the IA-01 seat, beat Democrat Christina Bohannan in 2024 by 0.2% or 799 points. Astoundingly, Miller-Meeks won her U.S. House seat in 2020 in one of the closest House races in a century – 0.002% or 6 votes. 

Miller-Meeks is a conservative Republican who generally tows the party line. She is harshly criticized from the left for her opposition to reproductive rights and health-care subsidies, cuts to social safety nets, and strict advocacy for border security and undocumented immigrant deportations. She positions herself as a pragmatic conservative, but her voting record will be a tough sell against Bohannan, especially given the prevailing political winds of 2026. 

Bohannan is a star – she has an extensive, multi-disciplinary background with professional experience in constitutional law and environmental engineering. She is a law professor at the University of Iowa College of Law and authored a book about law and business innovation. She held a seat in the Iowa state House before running for the U.S. House. Her 2026 campaign themes are likely to be more popular than those of her opponent: affordability, the broken health care system, education for all Iowans, and environmental and legal protection of farms and natural resources. Miller-Meeks will face steep competition in Bohannan, according to Cook Political Report. 

Cook rates this race as a Toss Up. 

IA-03, a highly competitive swing district, covers the Des Moines metro area and suburbs. Democrats are pinning their hopes on Sarah Trone Garriott for a flip of IA-03. Garriott wears many hats – she is an ordained Lutheran minister, a mom, a nonprofit leader, and an Iowa state senator. As a community leader, she has focused on addressing food insecurity and interfaith bridge-building. As a politician, she has shown an admirable ability to win elections. She flipped a Republican-held Senate seat in 2020; was redistricted and then defeated the Senate president in 2022; and in 2024 defended her state Senate seat even though Trump won the district. Very impressive track record! Her 2026 U.S. House priorities are affordability, healthcare access, government accountability, and food insecurity and poverty, all of which should play well in this 

In 2026, Garriott is running for Iowa’s 3rd congressional district against two-term incumbent Republican Zach Nunn. In the last election, Nunn won by only 4%, same as Trump’s performance in the district. Although Nunn was raised with a farming background, he supports Trump and his policies, especially with respect to military action. Nunn also voted to reduce Medicaid and SNAP, threatening vulnerable Iowans. And he aligns with the Republican anti-abortion coalition. The differences between Nunn and Garriott are very clear, and Garriott has an excellent opportunity to flip what Cook rates as a Toss Up seat.

the white working class. Historically, the Democratic party in Ohio relied heavily on a coalition of white working class voters and labor unions. Between the collapse of manufacturing in the Rust Belt and Ohioans’ disappointment with the Democratic party’s responses to worker’s concerns about NAFTA and free trade, this coalition dissolved, and Democratic voters migrated to the Republican party. 

Now, worries about the economy and foreign interventions are driving many Ohioans to reconsider the party landscape. Elections in Ohio are becoming more competitive, with stronger Democratic candidates and greater turnout. The liberal suburban areas around Ohio’s biggest cities also have grown, with a tendency to overshadow conservative rural areas. Add a changing political environment to those factors, and Ohio can again be considered a swing state.  

Ohio’s 1st district represents the highly competitive urban and suburban areas surrounding Cincinnati, plus nearby rural areas. Two-term incumbent Greg Landsman, known as a pragmatic centrist Democrat, is popular among his moderate constituents who appreciate bipartisanship. But he is criticized by both progressive and conservative constituents. Progressives are frustrated by his hawkish stance on the Middle East and vote against the war powers resolution. Conservatives are unhappy with his lack of support for cutting Medicaid benefits and implementing tighter work requirements. Landsman’s legislative priorities in the U.S. House focus on lowering healthcare and housing costs, fighting government corruption, and national security, including offering his own war powers resolution alternative. 

In the midterms, Landsman is challenged by Republican Eric Conroy, an Air Force veteran and former CIA officer who advocates for stronger border security and fiscal responsibility. Libertarian candidate John Hancock promises to cut waste, fight overreach, and “bring power back to the people.”  The complexity and competitiveness of OH-01 makes this race challenging to call. But Landsman has performed well in his previous two elections, leads a broad coalition of moderate voters in his district, and should benefit from the changing political climate. 

Cook rates this race as Lean Dem.  

Ohio’s 9th district is a narrow, highly gerrymandered strip that includes Toledo and parts of northwest Ohio alongside Lake Erie. The 9th blends Toledo’s manufacturing with rural agriculture and lake tourism. As a district, it is highly competitive and historically Democratic, represented for many years by the same incumbent, Marcy Kaptur. Redrawing the map twice in two years has made OH-09 less Democratic. However, Kaptur still won in 2024, though the district went for Trump; and the bipartisan redistricting in 2025 was not as bad as Democrats expected. 

Marcy Kaptur is the longest serving woman in the history of Congress. Recognized for her effectiveness, Kaptur is perhaps best known for spearheading the decades-long push to build the World War II Memorial to Americans who served in that war. Her other accomplishments and legislative priorities include directing hundreds of millions of dollars to her district, including the Toledo Skyway, one of the largest bridge projects ever in Ohio. She has also championed protection of the Lakes, U.S. support for Ukraine, and treatment for PTSD and other mental health issues for military service members. 

Kaptur’s opposition for the midterms is Republican Derek Merrin, a former state representative who challenged and narrowly lost to Kaptur in 2024. A staunch conservative and proponent of limited government, Merrin is a fiscal hawk. He advocates for strict border security and expanding school choice. He also backs term limits, which will undeniably play a central role in the midterm election as he challenges Kaptur. But her solid gold voting record and support of her OH-09 constituents could make her hard to beat, as long as Democrats turn out rather than taking this race for granted. 

Cook rates this race a Toss Up. 

PA-7 (Lehigh Valley) – Republican Ryan Mackenzie is an election denier. As a state House representative in 2020, he urged Congress to reject and decertify PA’s electoral votes. Trump’s endorsement in 2024 inched Mackenzie past three-time Democratic incumbent Susan Wild. As a U.S. House representative, Mackenzie has voted with Trump 98% of the time. His close connection with Trump may not be an asset for him in 2026.

Mackenzie’s current challenger, Democrat Bob Brooks, is a union leader and former firefighter with blue-collar credentials running in a working class district. Brooks enjoys strong Democratic support and is widely endorsed by key Democrats, labor unions, and progressive PACs.

Cook rates this race as a Toss Up.  

PA-8 (Northeast PA, Poconos) – In 2024, political newcomer Republican Rob Bresnehan flipped this seat to narrowly defeat 6-time Democratic incumbent Matt Cartwright. Ethical transgressions by Rep. Bresnehan have been numerous. After campaigning on prohibition of stock trading by members of Congress, as a US House representative, he himself became the second most active stock trader in Congress. Many of his transactions smell of insider trading. For example, he sold stocks in several major health care companies a week before he voted to gut Medicaid. Given Bresnehan’s shady financial dealings and character, both sides consider PA-08 one of the races most vulnerable to flipping in 2026.

Bresnehan faces an uphill battle against Scranton Mayor, Democrat Paige Cognetti. Her campaign focuses on anti-corruption and lowering working-class costs, a strong platform for this district. She has heavily weaponized Bresnehan’s record, pledged to ban congressional stock trading, and rejected corporate PAC money.

Cook rates this race as a Toss Up. 

PA-10 (Harrisburg and York areas) – MAGA incumbent Republican Scott Perry is endorsed by both Trump and Mike Johnson. Like Mackenzie, Perry is an election denier who led the charge to decertify PA’’s slate of electors. He is a prominent member, and former Chairman, of the ultraconservative House Freedom Caucus, and has close ties to Turning Point. As with Mackenzie, Perry’s relationship with Trump may be a political liability in the current landscape.

Perry will be fighting for his political life in this rematch race against challenger Democrat Janelle Stelson. After losing the 2024 election by only 1%, she is favored to win in 2026. Stelson is an Emmy Award-winning, former PA news anchor with strong support from the Democratic party. Her campaign focuses on affordability and paints Perry as an extremist, even among MAGA Republicans.

Cook rates this race a Toss Up.