Our favorite professor, Heather Cox Richardson, inspired Indivisibles this week during the May Statewide Call. She reminded us that history is filled with ordinary individuals who have made an extraordinary difference just by speaking out to those around them, neighbor-to-neighbor-like! You can watch the IMC Statewide Call with historian Heather Cox Richardson below.
Current Mood: The Margin of Effort
Update: 8/27/24: Current Mood: Hope and Determination! Lately there has been constistant upwards polling trends for Harris/Walz. This encouraging news shows that potential voters are tuning in. Now we need to convert this enthusiam to actual ballots cast. Robert Hubbell (First Edition) says it best:
Despite significant improvement in every swing state, the race remains within the margin of error in reputable polls. If we can continue the progress and momentum through September, we have every reason to believe that Kamala Harris will pull ahead of Trump in swing states by a margin that indicates an incontestable lead.
In other words, we have every reason to be hopeful but no reason to be complacent. We must sustain the intensity of the last month and follow-through on our personal commitments to help Kamala and Tim win!
May 31, 2024 Are you stressing about the latest poll showing alarming support for Trump? We can’t just say “ignore polls” because we use them as well to show overwhelming support for legal abortion, contraception, IVF and gun safety. What you need to know is that all polls are not created equally. Let’s look at some examples of the different ways polls can be manipulated, and how to evaluate them.
Who Created the Poll and Why?
In addition to the obvious right wing “think tanks,” the profit-seeking media also has a different goal than objective truth. Robert Hubbell described it so succinctly in his May 14th newsletter:
“Polling has become big business for major media outlets. They get to write news stories in which they are star actors. The NY Times produces presidential polls on a monthly basis, guaranteeing exclusive stories in which it designs, conducts, and interprets polls that become front-page news for the Times. Create the news, report on the news you created, and interpret that same news for the public….
The NYTimes polls consistently overweight Trump’s prospects, which the Times dutifully reports, even though most of its findings show an effectively tied race. The Times analysis delves into subgroups with sample sizes so small the error bars render them meaningless.The Times treats its own polls as front-page news, but when polls showing more favorable results for Biden are reported by other outlets in the ensuing weeks, they are ignored by the Times. Because, well, those polls weren’t designed, conducted, and interpreted by the Times…”
Who is the pollster talking to?
In Dan Rather’s newsletter “Steady,” he talks about how many times polls have been poor predictors of actual results. In 2020, Biden won by a narrower margin than predicted. Rather explains that “It turns out pollsters didn’t factor in enough white, non-college-educated voters, who apparently are less likely to answer pollsters’ questions. They also happen to be Trump’s biggest support base.”
In addition, pollsters still have not adjusted to modern technology, depending on techniques developed well before cell phones existed. “Pollsters are struggling to keep up with changing technology. Not long ago, data was collected by calling voters at home on landlines. Now with the ubiquity of cell phones with caller ID, answer rates for pollsters have been plummeting. Also, some folks, maybe more than we think, just flat-out lie, to mislead the pollsters.”
What Questions are the Polls Asking?
The Roper Center, an old and highly respected pollster, has listed 20 questions that journalists should ask before they report a poll and their editor slaps on a highly provocative title to get clicks. They recommend examining the wording of the questions asked, which can reveal the bias of the group paying for the poll. But did you know the order of the questions matter too? The answers can be subtly manipulated, intentionally or not. For example, in economically troubled times, if the interviewer asks about the economy before he asks about the person’s approval of the president, the reported approval will be lower than if the order of questions was reversed.
How is the data reported?
Talking Points Memo says that “As we’ve noted a few times, this has become a consistent pattern in this presidential race: Joe Biden does substantially better in likely voter polls. … A Likely Voter screen is the pollster’s attempt to poll the actual voting electorate as opposed to the population of registered voters. So that distinction is very key. And if they diverge you really want to be doing better with Likely Voters, as Biden is.” Often the media does not distinguish between these two populations in their reporting, especially in the headlines.
What is the margin of error?
Pew Research has a very detailed description of what the margin of error means. Whenever you are reading a poll, pay attention to what the pollster describes as the margin of error. (Notice that this is still calculated by the pollster, who might have an ulterior motive.) Errors should get larger the smaller the sample size, because extrapolating that to the total population is less accurate.
Aren’t Poll Aggregators More Accurate?
The poll aggregator 538 (no longer owned by Nate Silver) attempts to take all the different polls and aggregate the results into one overall number. They have ranked different pollsters by 538’s evaluation of their error, bias and transparency. But basically, they mash all the polls together and report the average. My opinion? I don’t care how much you fiddle with weighting these polls, I believe in the truism: Garbage In, Garbage Out.
Can we get anything out of these polls?
As Rather notes, “Analysts from the polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight explained the 2022 election results this way. “[A poll’s] true utility isn’t in telling us who will win, but rather in roughly how close a race is — and, therefore, how confident we should be in the outcome. Historically, candidates leading polls by at least 20 points have won 99 percent of the time. But candidates leading polls by less than 3 points have won just 55 percent of the time. In other words, races within 3 points in the polls are little better than toss-ups — something we’ve been shouting from the rooftops for years.”
So What Should We Do?
If you want a more nuanced reading of the polls, turn off cable news, and ignore mainstream newspaper’s clickbait headlines. Instead, check out free newsletters like Robert Hubbell’s First Edition, Simon Rosenberg’s Hopium Chronicles or even Heather Cox Richardson’s Letters From an American to get context. The polls are a snapshot; and we need to be aware of the pollster’s focus. We also need to be aware of media bias – clickbait headlines lead to more profit.
That said, although we shouldn’t panic, we must not be complacent. When you think about the margin of error, think of yourself as working in the “margin of effort.” In other words, “Do More, Worry Less” as Rosenberg often says!
Spring Donations
Spring donations are 5x more effective than Fall Donations! Donate today to your favorite candidates and grassroots groups to enable them to hire staff, budget, and plan for success in 2024.
Postcards: Script Length Strategies
Who doesn’t enjoy writing postcards with very short scripts? They are fast, fun, and can be done while watching TV. Why aren’t all postcard projects like that?
One answer is that in an election year, when time is of the essence, not all postcards serve the same purposes.
Early in the election year is the best time to send out voter registration materials. These postcards are typically informational, which may offer QR codes or links to voter registration websites and voting locations. Informational card scripts usually use minimal handwriting, because all the factual details need to be clear as a bell and easily read. These are the cards that end up taped to the refrigerator door until needed.
Later in the election year, we move more toward candidates and issues. These postcards are more relational – they are intended to establish person-to-person interaction. These are the cards that can introduce, persuade or support candidates or ideas. With relational postcard scripts, the goal is to provide a powerful message, which are mostly or fully handwritten to establish that necessary personal contact.
There are other variations, but these are clear examples. Postcards should be impactful, effective, and timely. And as volunteers in our grassroots army, we write the scripts that best serve the postcard campaign’s purposes.
Thank you for all you do, and keep up the good work!
Barbara
Arizona’s Fierce Fight for Abortion Rights
The reversal of Roe v. Wade by the US Supreme Court in June 2023 declared open season on women across the country. In AZ, the State Supreme Court responded by restoring an 1864 territorial law banning abortion except to save a mother’s life, with a 2-5 year prison sentence for abortion providers. It did not matter to these Republican-appointed justices that in 1864, AZ was not yet a state, slavery had not been abolished, Abraham Lincoln was president, and women could not vote.
The AZ House and Senate have since voted to repeal the 1864 law, with a few Republicans joining the Democratic delegation. Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs signed the bill two days later. The bipartisan votes by legislators and support by the governor were very heartening to those hoping to bring abortion rights to AZ.
Unfortunately, while the repeal is a significant victory, it does not resolve AZ’s abortion issue. The repeal leaves the 1864 law in place for several more months, although Democratic AZ Attorney General Kristin Mayes has promised not to allow prosecution of anyone violating the abortion ban. But the repealed ban also leaves in place a 15-week ban with no exception for rape or incest.
Arizonans have pushed back against this game of political football played with women’s lives by creating an initiative, the AZ Abortion Access Act, that will be on the ballot this November. The Act would enshrine abortion access in the AZ constitution, beyond the reach of legislation.
But the fight is not over even then, as the AZ Republican legislature is putting together for the November ballot an opposing amendment which is aimed at confusing voters. The fight will be heating up this fall, and Turn Purple 2 Blue will be there with actions you can take to help AZ win the abortion battle for good.
FL Abortion Initiative Could Help Biden in Nov
“You’ve got to show up and vote. Are you ready to protect freedom?”
– joe biden in tampa, FL April 23, 2024
Joe Biden tackled the issue of abortion rights head-on during his campaign visit to Florida on April 23. With the state’s six-week abortion ban set to take effect on May 1, Biden rallied support against these oppressive measures and emphasized the broader threat they pose to reproductive health care. His visit underscores Democrats’ strategy to mobilize voters, especially women and moderates, by putting abortion rights front and center in the upcoming election. Biden continues to emphasize the importance of maintaining personal freedoms and healthcare access, defending against efforts led by Trump and MAGA Republicans to abolish reproductive rights.
The upcoming ballot measure in Florida, Amendment 4, would establish a constitutional right to abortion before fetal viability, requiring a 60% vote for approval. Spearheaded by Floridians Protecting Freedom, the initiative aims to safeguard access to reproductive healthcare and bodily autonomy. Despite opposition from Republicans and anti-abortion groups, similar measures across the country have mobilized abortion rights supporters. Democrats are leveraging the abortion initiative on the November ballot to drive voter turnout and positively impact the political landscape in Florida. As Biden proclaimed in Tampa, “You’ve got to show up and vote. Are you ready to protect freedom?”
What do Montana and Ohio Have in Common?
You may be surprised to learn that the very red states of Montana and Ohio have Democratic senators! Jon Tester (MT) and Sherrod Brown (OH) were elected to the incoming Senate class of 2007 and have successfully served the people in their states well. Both Senators understand what the voters in their states want and need. And they’ve been voted in again and again, and not only by Democrats.
Jon Tester, himself a working farmer, has carefully cultivated his reputation as a moderate. He champions unions, ranchers, and veterans, and he holds his love of rural Montana close. His voting record confirms his desire to be seen as a moderate. But he is also a strong Democrat, who voted with the caucus to pass the American Rescue Plan, the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, the Gun Safety Bill, The Chips Act, and the Inflation Reduction Act. He is pro-choice; he understands that the government should not come between a woman and her doctor.
Sherrod Brown, who describes himself as a progressive populist, has made economics his centerpiece. He fought against global trade agreements before it was cool. He has fought for the ACA (Obamacare) and for 40 years plus, has represented working-class people regardless of color or orientation. He’s also fully on board with abortion rights, introducing the 2023 Women’s Health Protection Act. He has a reputation in Ohio as being more moderate than the Democratic party.
Unfortunately, the other thing they have in common is being targets of MAGA Republicans. Money is pouring into Ohio right now for Trump-endorsed Bernie Moreno. Montana’s primary is not until June, but Republicans have fully targeted this race as one they can flip.
We must protect these two Senate seats to preserve our majority in the Senate. Having the majority allows us to set the agenda, confirm cabinet members and judges, and is the only chance to overturn Dobbs with legislation. If you can, please donate to them or a grassroots group in Montana or Ohio that will help them retain their seats.
FAQ for Democracy Postcards
DEMOCRACY POSTCARDS
Welcome, whether you are just starting to write Democracy postcards or need a refresher after a break, you can get your questions answered here!
- What are Democracy postcards? These postcards started in 2017 as a way for voters to talk directly to other voters whenever there was an election or ballot initiative that is important for democracy. The cards vary in topics and partisanship, but the general idea is to put information directly in voters’ hands that they might not have access to otherwise. Media access is very fragmented; there is a lack of local news coverage, and we can provide information about candidates, initiatives, and voting.
- Where do the addresses come from? There are many groups and they purchase lists from the appropriate state. They are able to sort these lists for different characteristics, ie voting tendencies, rural v urban, issues, etc.
- How do I choose what cards to do? There are many campaigns. Make sure you like the cause, and can finish them by the mailing deadline.
- I have my cards, what do I do first? Read the instructions and make sure you understand the mailing date. The campaign organizers have determined when these cards should be mailed to make the most impact. Then look over the cards to plan out where the address and stamp goes, and where the script goes. Some people practice printing the script to see how to space it.
- Do I have to write the script provided? Yes, it is important to write the script provided. These scripts are designed for the voters on that address list. You can make small changes, such as using bullet points instead of full sentences, but you must include all the original information. You may not add extra information.
- Can I personalize my cards? Yes, but judiciously. You can add color, highlighting, or underlining, but keep it professional and readable. No stickers, drawings or religious references. Do not include your last name, your location, or your organization.
- Why do I have to print? Cursive instruction fell out of favor after 2000, so many younger voters can not read it. In addition, you may be writing to people that have English as a second language. We want these cards to be inviting and easy to read!
- How should I write the addresses? Some campaigns will have address labels. If they do not, please print the addresses in dark blue or black ink only. Print the address as provided. Sometimes out of district addresses will be provided – that is fine – it just means that person has homes in more than one state.
- What if I don’t have time to write, or can’t write for some reason? Donate so that others can write, or donate to a grassroots group working with voters on the ground. Find recommendations on http://www.TurnPurple2Blue.org
Nevada US Reps to Protect
There are three incumbent Democrats in Nevada that we are watching. Cook Political rates these as Lean Democratic or Likely Democratic. This means that we have an advantage in these races right now, but that may change after the June primary. We can help remind voters what these Democratic Representatives have accomplished and counter any MAGA disinformation.
Dina Titus (NV-01) has an impressive biography and has been an important representative for environmental and women’s rights, housing and education. She is currently serving on the transportation and infrastructure committee. Cook Political rates this race as Likely Democratic.
Susie Lee (NV-03) has served since 2019. In Congress, her passions are: improving our education system, honoring our promise to veterans, and tackling rising health care costs. She serves as Vice Chair of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus, and has been ranked the #1 bipartisan representative. Cook Political rates this race as Lean Democratic.
Steven Horsford (NV-04) has served since 2019. His passion is working for economic initiatives to expand job training and apprenticeship programs. He is a champion of democratic causes: environment, heathcare, housing, Unions and Women’s rights. Cook Political rates this race as Likely Democratic.
Nevada at risk – unregistered voters
Nevada, an important swing state in 2024, has a history of low voter turnout. Due to economic and work forces, Nevada has long had a highly transient population. Now it is one of the fastest growing states, with a large influx that is being driven by low taxes and inexpensive housing. As a result, many Nevada residents have no history of ever voting in the state.
The stakes in 2024 are high for Nevada – the state is at high risk of flipping from Blue to Red in November. Democrat Jacky Rosen is running for re-election as are the three Democratic House representatives. All of these Congressional seats are considered vulnerable, with Rosen as one of the most endangered Democratic Senate incumbents in the country. A good turnout in the November election is critical to keep these seats from flipping.
Our featured postcard project for April addresses the serious problem of low voter activity in Nevada by registering new voters. Nevada is a universal mail-in ballot state, which means that every registered voter receives ballots at home. By registering to vote now, Nevadans will not only receive ballots for the upcoming primary election, but also for the general election in November. Mail-in ballots are known to increase voting, so voter registration in Nevada offers a unique opportunity to expand the voter pool and make a significant impact on November’s election.
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