Text of Ken Burns 2024 Commencement Address | Brandeis.

Burns said,

[I]f I have learned anything over those years, it’s that there’s only “us.” There is no “them.” And whenever someone suggests to you, whomever it may be in your life that there’s a “them,” run away. “Othering” is the simplistic binary way to make and identify enemies, but it is also the surest way to your own self imprisonment, which brings me to a moment I’ve dreaded [because it] forces me to suspend my longstanding attempt at neutrality.

There is no real choice this November. There is only the perpetuation, however flawed and feeble you might perceive it, of our fragile 249-year-old experiment or the entropy that will engulf and destroy us if we take the other route.

The presumptive Republican nominee is the opioid of all opioids, an easy cure for what some believe is the solution to our myriad pains and problems. When in fact, with him, you end up re-enslaved with an even bigger problem, a worse affliction and addiction, “a bigger delusion” [and] our national suicide as Mr. Lincoln prophesies[d].

Do not be seduced by easy equalization. There is nothing equal about this equation. We are at an existential crossroads in our political and civic lives. This is a choice that could not be clearer.

Our favorite professor, Heather Cox Richardson, inspired Indivisibles this week during the May Statewide Call. She reminded us that history is filled with ordinary individuals who have made an extraordinary difference just by speaking out to those around them, neighbor-to-neighbor-like! You can watch the IMC Statewide Call with historian Heather Cox Richardson below.

Update: 8/27/24: Current Mood: Hope and Determination! Lately there has been constistant upwards polling trends for Harris/Walz. This encouraging news shows that potential voters are tuning in. Now we need to convert this enthusiam to actual ballots cast. Robert Hubbell (First Edition) says it best:

May 31, 2024 Are you stressing about the latest poll showing alarming support for Trump?   We can’t just say “ignore polls” because we use them as well to show overwhelming support for legal abortion, contraception, IVF and gun safety.  What you need to know is that all polls are not created equally.  Let’s look at some examples of the different ways polls can be manipulated, and how to evaluate them.

Who Created the Poll and Why?

In addition to the obvious right wing “think tanks,” the profit-seeking media also has a different goal than objective truth. Robert Hubbell described it so succinctly in his May 14th newsletter:  

The NYTimes polls consistently overweight Trump’s prospects, which the Times dutifully reports, even though most of its findings show an effectively tied race. The Times analysis delves into subgroups with sample sizes so small the error bars render them meaningless.The Times treats its own polls as front-page news, but when polls showing more favorable results for Biden are reported by other outlets in the ensuing weeks, they are ignored by the Times. Because, well, those polls weren’t designed, conducted, and interpreted by the Times…”

Who is the pollster talking to?

In Dan Rather’s newsletter “Steady,” he talks about how many times polls have been poor predictors of actual results.   In 2020, Biden won by a narrower margin than predicted. Rather explains that “It turns out pollsters didn’t factor in enough white, non-college-educated voters, who apparently are less likely to answer pollsters’ questions. They also happen to be Trump’s biggest support base.”

What Questions are the Polls Asking?  

The Roper Center, an old and highly respected pollster, has listed 20 questions that journalists should ask before they report a poll and their editor slaps on a highly provocative title to get clicks.  They recommend examining the wording of the questions asked, which can reveal the bias of the group paying for the poll.  But did you know the order of the questions matter too? The answers can be subtly manipulated, intentionally or not.  For example, in economically troubled times, if the interviewer asks about the economy before he asks about the person’s approval of the president, the reported approval will be lower than if the order of questions was reversed.  

How is the data reported? 

What is the margin of error?  

Pew Research has a very detailed description of what the margin of error means.  Whenever you are reading a poll, pay attention to what the pollster describes as the margin of error.  (Notice that this is still calculated by the pollster, who might have an ulterior motive.)  Errors should get larger the smaller the sample size, because extrapolating that to the total population is less accurate.  

Aren’t Poll Aggregators More Accurate?

Can we get anything out of these polls?  

As Rather notes, “Analysts from the polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight explained the 2022 election results this way. “[A poll’s] true utility isn’t in telling us who will win, but rather in roughly how close a race is — and, therefore, how confident we should be in the outcome. Historically, candidates leading polls by at least 20 points have won 99 percent of the time. But candidates leading polls by less than 3 points have won just 55 percent of the time. In other words, races within 3 points in the polls are little better than toss-ups — something we’ve been shouting from the rooftops for years.”

So What Should We Do?

If you want a more nuanced reading of the polls, turn off cable news, and ignore mainstream newspaper’s clickbait headlines.  Instead, check out free newsletters like Robert Hubbell’s First Edition, Simon Rosenberg’s Hopium Chronicles or even Heather Cox Richardson’s Letters From an American to get context.  The polls are a snapshot; and we need to be aware of the pollster’s focus.  We also need to be aware of media bias – clickbait headlines lead to more profit. 

That said, although we shouldn’t panic, we must not be complacent.  When you think about the margin of error, think of yourself as working in the “margin of effort.”  In other words, “Do More, Worry Less” as Rosenberg often says!