Take Back the Senate!

Key Races to Watch

While Democrats are increasingly favored to win the House this November, post-election possession of the Senate is less certain – but likely to be close! Out of 100 seats, the current breakdown is 53 held by Republicans, 45 by Democrats, and 2 held by Independents who caucus with the Democrats. Vice President Vance breaks any tie vote. Therefore, to attain the majority, Democrats must have 51 seats – a net gain of 4. Cook Political Report expects Democrats to gain 1-3 seats in the midterms, but the fourth seat remains uncertain. Much can change between now and November – stay tuned!

North Carolina Senate Race:

This race is widely considered to be our best opportunity to pick up a Senate seat in 2026. Roy Cooper is the current governor of North Carolina who, facing term limits, was recruited by Democrats to run for the Senate. Cooper, a two-term Democratic governor in an otherwise red state, is highly popular with voters and has had a long political career. He is considered by many to be a moderate or centrist Democrat, with a low-key, “southern Democrat” style. As governor, he has championed education and healthcare, an approach guaranteed to win NC voters.

Cooper’s opponent, Michael Whatley, was the former Republican National Chairman. This Senate race is his first attempt to run for political office. Unlike Cooper, Whatley suffers from poor name recognition among voters. Whatley is also strongly backed by Trump, which may not be an asset in the midterms. But Republicans are planning on spending big on this race, so it’s going to be one of the most expensive ones.

In comparing the two candidates, one observer commented that Cooper is like a well-worn coat while Whatley is more of a new pair of shoes that require breaking in – from a brand voters already don’t like. 

Ohio Senate Race:

After JD Vance’s election to the White House, Governor DeWine appointed Jon Husted, his lieutenant governor, to fill the vacant Senate seat. Husted has to win the election this November to keep his seat. He has been endorsed by Trump, but with political headwinds changing nationwide, it is not clear whether such backing will be a help or a hindrance for Husted. 

Sherrod Brown spent three consecutive terms in the Senate before losing a fourth term in 2024, the year that Ohio was swept by a red wave. He was narrowly defeated by Bernie Moreno, a political newcomer who rode Trump’s coattails to victory. (See Spotlight on Sherrod Brown.) The prospect of gaining Vance’s old seat motivated Brown to mount a new Senate campaign and attempt a comeback. Brown has a lot going for him – he’s a masterful politician with a long-standing working-class brand, high name recognition, and voter good will. If political headwinds in Ohio are favorable, this might well be the year for Brown’s return to the Senate. 

Currently, Brown and Husted are on equal footing in the polls. Between Brown’s strength as a candidate and a changing political climate, Democrats see an opening for a pick-up in this race. However, it will be expensive. In 2024, the race between Brown and Moreno was the most costly Senate race in U.S. history. There’s no reason to assume this race will be any less costly in 2026. 

Georgia Senate Race:

Democrat Jon Ossoff won the 2020-21 U.S. Senate election in Georgia, following a runoff state election where he beat the incumbent Republican Senator David Perdue. Ossoff, the youngest incumbent U.S. senator, is now up for re-election. He is a millennial, centrist-leaning Democrat recognized for his bipartisan legislative work regarding infrastructure and ani-corruption measures and other issues.

Until recently, Republicans had singled Ossoff out as an easy flip prospect. However, Ossoff, a seasoned fundraiser, had learned early on to fight back effectively by raising large amounts of campaign cash which intimidates opposition. While Perdue was ranked during his term as one of the wealthiest members of the U.S. Senate, Ossoff raised more than $100 million for his own campaign. This made him the best-funded candidate in U.S. history. Now, with a giant bull’s eye on his back, Ossoff has again accumulated a huge war chest in defense. As a result, Republicans are losing confidence that they can flip his seat. This dynamic could easily change, however, so the need to raise money remains a priority for Ossoff. 

Maine Senate Race: 

Nowhere is the trend of anti-establishment, populist sentiment stronger than in the state of Maine. This is where 41-year old, political outsider oysterman Graham Platner crushed the Democratic Senate primary until his opponent, Gov. Janet Mills, abruptly withdrew from the race. Mills, a 78-year old, two-term Maine governor who was recruited by Chuck Schumer, said that unlike Platner, she did not have adequate funding and support from her backers. Platner’s political ascent had been meteoric as he quickly gained the enthusiastic backing of a Dem base that has grown impatient with the Washington power structure. This impatience is being felt nationwide, as the present political establishment is seen as lacking the fire and fight needed for these times.  A similar dynamic is expected to play a pivotal role in the contest between Platner and 73-year old, 5-term U.S. Republican Senator Susan Collins. Which will prevail – youth and fresh, new ideas or maturity and experience? 

As the Dem base searches for newer, younger leadership, they seem to have found the fiery populist champion they seek in Graham Platner. An inexperienced candidate, he carries the predictable baggage of someone who never expected to run for office – ill-advised online remarks and a Nazi-inspired chest tattoo that he has apologized for and since removed (he said he did not recognize the meaning). Yet Platner continued to gain traction throughout the primary battle and has been endorsed by Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren and major labor unions. The scorched-earth tactics used against him by Mills in the primary may actually protect him from Republican attacks in the general election because Maine voters already have seen the worst of Platner and moved on. 

At the other end of the spectrum is incumbent Susan Collins, an “old war horse” who has beaten Democrat challengers in five general elections in a left-tilting state. Her longevity has been attributed to her reputation as a moderate Republican and her ability to secure federal funding for Maine. As chair of the powerful Appropriations Committee, Collins has seniority, power, and high visibility. She is one of few members of Congress who has never missed a vote, but her votes do not always follow her caucus; notably, Collins voted nay on the Big, Beautiful Bill. As such, she appeals to Independents and moderate Democrats. But she will not be immune from the next-generation dynamic that is expected to be a driving force in the 2026 general election. Current polling shows low approval ratings for Collins, while Platner leads the race in several polls.  Republicans plan to spend big to defend this seat, though, so Platner’s supporters will have to meet the challenge. It should be an interesting race.