Take Back the Senate!

Key Races to Watch

While Democrats are still favored to win the House this November, post-election possession of the Senate is less certain – but likely to be close! Out of 100 seats, the current breakdown is 53 held by Republicans, 45 by Democrats, and 2 held by Independents who caucus with the Democrats. Vice President Vance breaks any tie vote. Therefore, to attain the majority, Democrats must have 51 seats – a net gain of 4. Cook Political Report expects Democrats to gain 1-3 seats in the midterms, but the fourth seat remains uncertain. Much can change between now and November – stay tuned!

North Carolina Senate Race:

This race is widely considered to be our one of our best opportunities to pick up a Senate seat in 2026. Roy Cooper is the current governor of North Carolina who, facing term limits, was recruited by Democrats to run for the Senate. Cooper, a two-term Democratic governor in an otherwise red state, is highly popular with voters and has had a long political career. He is considered by many to be a moderate or centrist Democrat, with a low-key, “southern Democrat” style. As governor, he has championed education and healthcare, an approach guaranteed to win NC voters.

Cooper’s opponent, Michael Whatley, was the former Republican National Chairman. This Senate race is his first attempt to run for political office. Unlike Cooper, Whatley suffers from poor name recognition among voters. Whatley is also strongly backed by Trump, which may not be an asset in the midterms. But Republicans are planning on spending big on this race, so it’s going to be one of the most expensive ones.

In comparing the two candidates, one observer commented that Cooper is like a well-worn coat while Whatley is more like a new pair of shoes that require breaking in – from a brand voters already don’t like. 

Ohio Senate Race:

After JD Vance’s election to the White House, Governor DeWine appointed Jon Husted, his lieutenant governor, to fill the vacant Senate seat. Husted has to win the election this November to keep his seat. He has been endorsed by Trump, but with political headwinds changing nationwide, it is not clear whether such backing will be a help or a hindrance for Husted. 

Sherrod Brown spent three consecutive terms in the Senate before losing a fourth term in 2024, the year that Ohio was swept by a red wave. He was narrowly defeated by Bernie Moreno, a political newcomer who rode Trump’s coattails to victory. (See Spotlight on Sherrod Brown.) The prospect of gaining Vance’s old seat motivated Brown to mount a new Senate campaign and attempt a comeback. Brown has a lot going for him – he’s a masterful politician with a long-standing working-class brand, high name recognition, and voter good will. If political headwinds in Ohio are favorable, this might well be the year for Brown’s return to the Senate. 

Currently, Brown and Husted are on equal footing in the polls. Between Brown’s strength as a candidate and a changing political climate, Democrats see an opening for a pick-up in this race. However, it will be expensive. In 2024, the race between Brown and Moreno was the most costly Senate race in U.S. history. There’s no reason to assume this race will be any less costly in 2026. 

Georgia Senate Race:

Democrat Jon Ossoff won the 2020 U.S. Senate election in Georgia by beating ultra-wealthy incumbent Republican David Perdue. The youngest sitting U.S. senator, Ossoff is up for re-election in 2026. He is a millennial, centrist-leaning Democrat recognized for his bipartisan legislative work regarding anti-corruption measures, housing affordability, military family support and other issues. A former investigative journalist, Ossoff is known for his fiery speeches, clear rhetoric, and powerful campaign rallies that often go viral on social media. There is persistent national buzz regarding his 2028 presidential potential.

Until recently, Republicans had singled Ossoff out as an easy flip prospect. However, Ossoff, a seasoned fundraiser, learned early on to fight back effectively by raising large amounts of campaign cash to intimidate opposition. While Senator Perdue was ranked during his term as one of the wealthiest members of the U.S. Senate, Ossoff raised more than $100 million for his own campaign. This made him the best-funded candidate in U.S. history. Now, with a giant bull’s eye on his back, Ossoff has again accumulated a massive war chest in defense. Republicans have lost their easy confidence that they can flip the seat, and they worry that PAC money earmarked to unseat Ossoff may be wasted. This dynamic can easily change before November, so raising money remains a priority for Ossoff’s campaign. 

Trump-endorsed Mike Collins won the June 16 Republican Senate primary runoff and will face Ossoff in November. Collins is known for his abrasive social media presence, ongoing House Ethics investigation, and hardline anti-abortion and anti-immigration stances. He has a history of deplorable statements and actions, including shooting and exploding a voting machine during his 2022 House campaign to show his conviction that the 2020 election results were rigged. He also posted on social media that undocumented immigrants should get the Pinochet treatment, i.e. thrown out of helicopters into the ocean. Most recently, he crossed another ethical line by producing a deepfake AI video about Ossoff. Collins is “an opposition researcher’s dream,” i.e. highly vulnerable, but he has strong backing from Trump. Collins is supported by his rural central Georgia base but he will not fare well with the Atlanta suburbs, which are necessary to win elections in Georgia. Nonetheless, Republican money is pouring into his campaign, which will likely lead to one of the most expensive Senate races in 2026.

Maine Senate Race: 

Political analysts consider Susan Collins’ Senate seat the most likely to flip in 2026, since she is the only Republican running for re-election in a state that Trump lost in 2024. Lately, the race has been rocked by controversy. Much of it is political in origin, e.g. accusations by a former girlfriend who turns out to be a Republican activist.  For Democratic activists, it’s essential not to get bogged down and overlook what we are trying to achieve for the American people. It is more important than ever to keep focused on the fundamentals, which predict a massive “change wave” for the midterms. 

One striking fundamental is the nationally growing anti-establishment sentiment in the Democratic base, which searches for newer, younger leadership. Voters seem to have found the fiery populist champion they seek in Democrat Graham Platner, a 41-year old oysterman, progressive, and political outsider. Platner’s political ascent has been meteoric as he quickly gained the enthusiastic backing of many who have grown impatient with the Washington power structure. 

This anti-establishment sentiment was apparent in the June 9 Democratic Senate primary. Platner won by a landslide, defeating establishment candidate Gov. Janet Mills, who had been recruited by Schumer and national party strategists. Given the strong voice of Maine voters, Democratic leaders had no choice but to rally behind Platner. Progressive activist Indivisible’s philosophy is to get behind the winner in the primary, and fight like hell in the general. And the Democratic establishment followed suit. 

A similar anti-establishment dynamic may come into play in the general election. Given the choice between Platner and 73-year old, 5-term U.S. Republican Senator Susan Collins, Maine voters may again favor Platner, this time over political veteran Collins. 

Also damaging Susan Collins’ prospects is the intense anti-Trump wave that continues to build across the country from the worsening economy and war with Iran. Trump is deeply unpopular in Maine. Collins’ longevity in the Senate has been attributed to her reputation as a moderate Republican, supported by Maine Independents and moderate Democrats. However, there is no escaping the fact that her Senate votes align with Trump’s positions most of the time. Collins supports Republican nominees, tax reform, and deregulation. She voted to advance the Big Beautiful Bill legislation to the Senate floor. She also cast the pivotal, deciding vote to confirm conservative Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, which ultimately led to the overturning of Roe v. Wade. Maine voters must hold Senator Collins accountable for her voting record. 

Alaska Senate Race:

Democrat Mary Peltola is currently the likeliest Democrat to win a 2026 Senate seat in a deep-red state. As a US House Representative, Peltola was the first Alaskan Native elected to Congress. She has been a commercial fisher, worked with a gold-mining company, and served as a tribal judge. Her broad background has focused her on Alaska-specific issues, such as fishing and the environment. Her moderate position on cultural issues – she’s a gun owner previously endorsed by the NRA – and her independence has won over many Republican voters who like her message and style. Following her US House defeat in 2022 by Peltola, Republican Sarah Palin texted her opponent with admiration, saying that she was “a real Alaskan chick. Beautiful, smart, and tough.”  

Peltola’s 2026 Senate campaign stresses affordability and “fixing the rigged system” through term limits, congressional stock trading bans, and similar measures. Her priorities range from populist to centrist, which covers a lot of favorable ground with voters on both sides. However, her Alaska-centric image does her no fundraising favors because donors in other states don’t know her. But fortunately, hers is not one of the expensive Senate races. So she remains, as she puts it, “Alaska First.”  

Harvard-educated lawyer and twice-elected Senator Republican Dan Sullivan has the dubious distinction of being the third most unpopular U.S. Senator (behind only Mitch McConnell and Susan Collins). He has followed in Trump’s footsteps, supporting measures that do not serve the interests of Alaskans, e.g. tariffs and the Iran war. Trump has endorsed him. Sullivan’s extreme unpopularity, however, appears mostly due to affordability issues: driving up health care costs by voting against ACA subsidy extensions, slashing food assistance, and weakening public safety resources relied upon by rural Alaskans. Pelota now leads him in the polls by 5-7 points and has outraised him by 4x.

Iowa Senate Race:

Democrat Josh Turek has burst onto the national political scene as one who, according to recent polls, might be able to flip this deep-red farm state. Turek, currently an Iowa State Representative, has emerged as a strong candidate, a self-described “prairie populist” and “common-sense” moderate. His district, which heavily supported Trump, elected Turek twice. 

In addition to his political resume, Turek is also a world-class athlete and a national hero. Born with spina bifida and wheelchair-bound, he played wheelchair basketball professionally in Europe. On the U.S. national team, Turek earned two gold medals in Wheelchair Basketball World Championships. In 2023, he was inducted into the National Wheelchair Basketball Association’s Hall of Fame. 

Turek is now competing for the seat of retiring Republican U.S Senator Joni Ernst, who infamously commented that “we’re all going to die”  when confronted with deep cuts to Medicaid. In the June 2 primary, Turek beat progressive Democrat Zach Wahls by roughly 25 points. Turek had been seen in the conservative state as a more moderate candidate, and he was endorsed by state luminaries such as former Senator Tom Harkin. Now Turek faces Republican Ashley Hinson, another state representative who decisively beat her opposition in the primary. She advertises herself as a Trump ally, and he has endorsed her.

For Turek, the path ahead is an uphill climb in this red state, but the winds are at his back. While Trump took Iowa by 13 points in 2024, his approval ratings continue to tank. His policies have hit farmers hard, and farm bankruptcies are climbing statewide. Turek advocates for rural communities and small family farms, while Hinson supports legislation that hurts rural healthcare access. Turek’s Senate campaign focuses on cost-of-living reduction, healthcare access, corporate and political accountability, and labor rights, which many of Hinson’s votes oppose. The contrasting views of Turek and Hinson promise to make for an intense campaign season approaching the November election. 

Recent polling has the two candidates statistically tied. The political headwinds should continue to blow in Turek’s favor, supported by his farmer-friendly and populist policies. It is important, however, to keep in mind that Iowa has roughly 200,000 more registered Republican voters than Democrats. Turek will need money and help bringing his political messaging to Iowans and getting his supporters to the polls. 

Texas Senate Race

The election season in Texas began with a Democratic primary that pitted outspoken Jasmine Crockett, a U.S. House Representative, against state legislator James Talarico from an Austin-area blue district. Crockett had strong support from the Black community, but Talarico won the Democratic primary by 6 points –  nearly 145,000 votes from his coalition of white and Hispanic voters, younger people and liberals. Notably, in the 2026 Texas primaries, Democratic voters outnumbered Republican voters. 

Now the Senate nominee, Talarico is a 37 year-old educator and Presbyterian seminarian. He is highly critical of Christian nationalism, which he considers more about political power than about Jesus. His left-tilting campaign agenda focuses on reforms of U.S. political institutions, universal healthcare, and support for the LGBTQ community. He favors a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. There are no skeletons in Talarico’s closet, but he has made old comments regarding cultural and gender issues that Republicans have seized upon. 

On the other hand, Ken Paxton, Talarico’s opponent, is a firebrand populist with enough personal baggage to sink the Titanic. As Attorney General of Texas, Paxton has been investigated by the SEC and indicted for securities fraud, and sued by the State Bar of Texas for professional misconduct. He was impeached by the Texas House of Representatives for bribery and obstruction of justice, but acquitted by the state Senate, allowing him to assume his regular duties. Nonetheless, he faces regular accusations of using his official position for personal gain, and his wife is divorcing him for adultery and “biblical grounds.” He is also an election denier. Sound familiar? Paxton and Trump are kindred spirits, and Trump is endorsing Paxton and supporting his campaign. 

Could 2026 be the year for a Democratic U.S. Senator in Texas? The last was in 1988, but this year, Paxton’s fundraising weakness and serious legal problems may give Talarico the break Democrats have been hoping for. While Paxton is popular with the Texas MAGA base, moderate and more traditional conservative Republicans say they would never vote for him. Talarico has a broad coalition, which will be strengthened if he can draw in Crockett’s base of Black voters. Currently, Paxton and Talarico are tied in the polls, although some have Talarico slightly ahead. Others report a recent surge by Paxton. This is a race to keep a close eye on.