House Races to Watch

Facts: There are a total of 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, and all terms expire every two years. Currently, there are 217 seats held by Republicans, 212 by Democrats, one by an Independent (who caucuses with the Republican party), and 5 vacant seats. Democrats need 218 seats to attain the majority. This number serves as the absolute threshold required to control the floor and pass legislation. So flipping the House is a high priority for the midterms.

Actions you can take: House races are well-suited for grassroots organizing! These races are very different from Senate races in that voter numbers are much smaller. Nationally, average turnouts per election are on the order of 250,000 voters per district. In close races, differences between candidates can be miniscule – in 2022, Republican Lauren Boebert (CO-03) won her House race by less than 600 votes. These expected close races are perfect targets for grassroots organizing – whether it be donations, postcards, canvassing, or other tactics – where our efforts have the greatest impact. Here are some of the House races where you can make a real difference. 

PA-7 (Lehigh Valley) – Republican Ryan Mackenzie is an election denier. As a state House representative in 2020, he urged Congress to reject and decertify PA’s electoral votes. Trump’s endorsement in 2024 inched Mackenzie past three-time Democratic incumbent Susan Wild. As a U.S. House representative, Mackenzie has voted with Trump 98% of the time. His close connection with Trump may not be an asset for him in 2026.

Mackenzie’s current challenger, Democrat Bob Brooks, is a union leader and former firefighter with blue-collar credentials running in a working class district. Brooks enjoys strong Democratic support and is widely endorsed by key Democrats, labor unions, and progressive PACs. Cook rates this race as a Toss Up.  

PA-8 (Northeast PA, Poconos) – In 2024, political newcomer Republican Rob Bresnehan flipped this seat to narrowly defeat 6-time Democratic incumbent Matt Cartwright. Ethical transgressions by Rep. Bresnehan have been numerous. After campaigning on prohibition of stock trading by members of Congress, as a US House representative, he himself became the second most active stock trader in Congress. Many of his transactions smell of insider trading. For example, he sold stocks in several major health care companies a week before he voted to gut Medicaid. Given Bresnehan’s shady financial dealings and character, both sides consider PA-08 one of the races most vulnerable to flipping in 2026.

Bresnehan faces an uphill battle against Scranton Mayor, Democrat Paige Cognetti. Her campaign focuses on anti-corruption and lowering working-class costs, a strong platform for this district. She has heavily weaponized Bresnehan’s record, pledged to ban congressional stock trading, and rejected corporate PAC money. Cook rates this race as a Toss Up. 

PA-10 (Harrisburg and York areas) – MAGA incumbent Republican Scott Perry is endorsed by both Trump and Mike Johnson. Like Mackenzie, Perry is an election denier who led the charge to decertify PA’’s slate of electors. He is a prominent member, and former Chairman, of the ultraconservative House Freedom Caucus, and has close ties to Turning Point. As with Mackenzie, Perry’s relationship with Trump may be a political liability in the current landscape.

Perry will be fighting for his political life in this rematch race against challenger Democrat Janelle Stelson. After losing the 2024 election by only 1%, she is favored to win in 2026. Stelson is an Emmy Award-winning, former PA news anchor with strong support from the Democratic party. Her campaign focuses on affordability and paints Perry as an extremist, even among MAGA Republicans. Cook rates this race a Toss Up.