Governor Races to Watch

Why are Democratic governors critical? Democratic governors represent over 50% of our U.S. population, and especially in 2026, they play very important political roles. They provide independent checks and balances to the Trump administration and Republican Congress. Democratic governors can restore federal cuts with state money to keep services going. Governors create good-paying jobs in their states, invest in education, health care, the environment, and reproductive freedom, which promote progressive policies. They are also chief executives who oversee responsibilities held by the states rather than the federal government. One very important – and timely! – example is that the states are solely responsible for conducting elections: the president and Congress have no legal jurisdiction.

Governors provide independent leadership and often, outspoken resistance to Washington (think Gavin Newsom and JB Pritzker). Blue state governors can be powerful political forces, bringing the progressive strengths of their states to the national front. Tim Walz and protesters in Minneapolis led the nation with their courage. Even deep-red states can have popular Democratic governors, like Andy Beshear in Kentucky.

The 2026 gubernatorial election scene: This year, there are 36 gubernatorial elections in the U.S – 18 Democratic governors are up for re-election. Of these, 10 are eligible incumbents running for another term, and these are governors we need to defend. The remaining 8 incumbents are retiring or term-limited. Their seats are open, and we must make sure they remain Democratic. 

For the general election, an effective way to maximize grassroots resources is to target states where multiple Dem races are contested (i.e. “nesting’). Investing in these races increases turnout in the sense that a high tide lifts all boats. For instance, if the Democratic governor’s race brings you to the polls, you are more likely to vote for other Democratic U.S. and state legislators while you’re in the polling booth. Another reason to support governors!

A useful one-stop way to donate to governors’ races is to support the Democratic Governors Association (DGA). This organization is run by the governors for the governors to help them win elections and govern effectively.

Here are some gubernatorial races to keep an eye on!

California’s Governor Race

Incumbent Gavin Newsom is nearing the end of his second term as CA governor and is ineligible for reelection. His term limit triggered a free-for-all in the primary, with a stunning 61 candidates on the ballot, which threatened not to advance a Democrat. In California’s voting system, voters make a selection from any party, and the top two candidates advance to the general election regardless of party affiliation. In the end, Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton won the top two spots and will compete in November. 

Becerra previously was the Attorney General of California, then took over as the U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services under Biden. Hilton, in contrast, is a strong Trump supporter, conservative political commentator, and contributor to the Fox News Channel. California is heavily Democratic, but they have a history of electing Republican governors such as Ronald Reagan, Pete Wilson, and Arnold Schwarzenegger. The prospect of the state having Hilton at the helm is terrifying, and it should propel Californian Democrats to the polls. For the midterms it is also nested, with very competitive U.S. House districts (see House Races to Watch) to flip or defend. Cook rates the governor’s race as Solid Dem. 

The importance of this gubernatorial race focuses on the state of California and the critical roles it serves in U.S. and world affairs. California ranks as the world’s 4th largest economy, behind Germany and above Japan. The state plays a major leadership role in education, medicine and health care, science and technology, innovation, environmental policies, and politics. When it comes to California’s governor, we simply cannot afford to get it wrong! 

Georgia’s Governor Race

This largely rural state has been Republican for decades, but has shifted to the middle. As the huge metropolitan area of Atlanta has grown and changed, so has the political diversity and tilt of the state. Atlanta itself is staunchly progressive, while conservatism radiates outward into the surrounding suburbs and rural areas. Georgia voters flipped to Biden in 2020 and back to Trump in 2024, but they elected two Democratic U.S. Senators, Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock. Georgia’s popular but term-limited governor, Republican Brian Kemp, is considered a staunch conservative but pragmatic governor. Notably, Kemp and Secretary of State Raffensperger resisted Trump’s pressure to “find 11,780 votes” to overturn the 2020 election. With its diverse political landscape, Georgia is now considered a purple or swing state at the federal level. 

Do you believe in karma? After Trump and his cronies poured millions of dollars into Republican primaries across the country, they were stopped short in GA by someone who spent even more money. Trump’s endorsement of Lt. Gov. Burt Jones was powerless against the funds billionaire candidate Rick Jackson poured into his primary race – over $100 million of his own money, mostly spent on TV ads. Jackson won easily, by 6 percentage points, and his win embarrassed Trump.

Democratic candidate Keisha Lance Bottoms will oppose Jackson in the general election. She is the former Atlanta mayor and has a golden opportunity to win the seat a Democrat has not held in two decades. In Georgia politics, it is very difficult to win an election without winning Atlanta, Georgia’s massive metropolis.  The political makeup of Atlanta is deep-blue, and its governance is dominated by the Democratic party. Atlanta’s population is diverse but has a slight Black majority. Bottoms’ gubernatorial campaign priorities are geared toward improving the lives of all Georgians: Medicaid expansion, affordability and housing, education, and public safety. These are all easy sells to voters who are tired of being ignored by Washington. 

Republican candidate Rick Jackson, who is opposing Bottoms in the gubernatorial election, grew up in Atlanta in poverty. He acquired a fortune in the healthcare industry. On the campaign trail, he summarizes his life story as “Foster care to billionaire.” While his background would seem to predict a liberal viewpoint and support for social services, Jackson has chosen the opposite path. He believes an outsider is needed to make Georgia affordable by cutting taxes and spending and raising standards in government and education. 

Given the opposing effects of Atlanta’s Democratic vs Georgia’s widespread Republican base, this election is difficult to call. The prevailing national winds may help tip the balance toward Bottoms, the influence of serious money may propel Jackson to a win.

Cook rates this race as Toss Up.

Iowa’s Governor Race

After Gov. Kim Reynolds decided not to run again in Iowa, Republicans held a raucous primary. Once  the dust settled, the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) candidate Zach Lahn had beaten the Trump-endorsed candidate, Randy Feenstra. The fact that Trump’s nominee lost may signal a weakening of Trump’s influence with voters. 

Democrat Rob Sand, State Auditor and the only Democrat holding a state office, was unopposed in the primary. Without having to deal with a bruising primary fight, he has been able to amass a large war chest and concentrate on his campaign messaging.  As Auditor, Sand has made his reputation fighting corruption, and state Republicans have responded by limiting his powers, which have angered many Iowans. As a candidate with a rural upbringing, Sand’s anti-corruption  message may resonate with Iowan voters unhappy with Republican conservatives, especially in health and education policy. Cook rates the Iowa governor’s race as a Toss Up. 

Iowa is a triple nesting state, with a U.S. Senate Race (Josh Turek – see Senate Races to Watch) and two Toss Up federal House races. As an agricultural state, Iowa has reason to be disillusioned with Trump’s policies: high tariffs which limited its soybean sales to China and other global markets, and a Mideast war that spiked the price of fertilizer. Farm bankruptcies are up. The fundamentals may be in place for a flip, and a blue wave would likely make it happen. 

Pennsylvania’s Governor Race

Josh Shapiro is a popular Democratic governor in a state that voted for Trump in 2024. He seeks a second term and is running against Republican state treasurer Stacy Garrity. Shapiro has about a 60% approval rating, a huge war chest, and a lead in the polls, all of which will stand him in good stead in the election. A rising star in national politics, he will undoubtedly be considered as a 2028 presidential possibility. However, he still faces hurdles with the divided General Assembly in PA, as State Senate Republicans block many of his more progressive priorities. Shapiro takes nothing for granted and plans to campaign vigorously throughout the election season. Cook likes Shapiro’s chances for his race and recently upgraded it to Solid Dem.

How important is it to work for Shapiro’s reelection? At present, Pennsylvania is still one of the most critical swing states, and we badly need it in the blue column. PA is nested, with five important Democratic U.S. House races in the running. Since low turnout is usual for midterm House races, a gubernatorial race can bring voters to the polls. A strong performance by Shapiro should help down-ballot races and elect Democratic state legislators. If so, Pennsylvania may score a blue trifecta in 2026. Bottom line – a vote for Shapiro is a vote for a blue PA! 

Best grassroots org at the state level: Turn PA Blue.