How to Help Yourself and Your Activism

Some of us are still working through the implications of the election – or if you are like me, you can block them out for a little while, but a snippet of news brings them back in full force.  Part of the problem is that there are not a lot of concrete actions to take right now, so our energies get pushed into worry and anxiety.

However, there is something important that you should be putting your energy into – now through January 20 and then as needed.  Productivity experts at Franklin Covey call it “Sharpening the Saw.”  We need to have the correct tools, and be able to wield them effectively when we need them!  Here’s what you need to do to strengthen your readiness for the next two years.

Body:  People often say activism is a marathon, not a sprint, but what does that really mean? A strong spirit needs a strong body to support it.  Build in time to eat, exercise, rest, and sleep.  Get those vaccines and make those recurring medical appointments.  

Mind:  Now is the time to learn and expand your knowledge base.  Read and really digest the Indivisible Guide.  Learn a new skill that you needed before but didn’t have time to pursue.  Identify and join groups that will support your activist goals.

Heart:  Make space to love and laugh.  Spend time with loved ones.  Build relationships that nourish you.  Give service to others.

Soul:  Choose your media thoughtfully – find what enlarges your world without useless repetition.  Keep a journal, pray or meditate if the world’s problems seem too big. 

Take care of yourself, and create an expectation that you will continue to take care of yourself.  Often we say working within groups on these large issues is like being in a choir:  the singers take turns pausing to take a breath, but the song continues, unbroken.

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Hey folks,

A little story.

We always planned to release a new Indivisible guide after the election — whatever the result. But after Trump won, suddenly that plan took on huge new weight. At our best, Indivisible helps people find the path — and in that moment, the path felt farther away than ever.

So, two days after the election was called, we left our kids with my mom, and Leah and I picked up a bunch of frozen meals and energy drinks and locked ourselves in a cabin in the woods for the long weekend. After three full days and long nights of nonstop writing, revising, getting feedback from across the movement, fighting over language, consuming copious caffeine, and partial reconciliation…we weren’t done yet. It wasn’t coming together. It didn’t flow.

That Monday I came back to DC to tell Rachel Maddow on live TV that we’d be releasing it Wednesday. Which meant, ready or not, it was coming out. We decided on a new structural rewrite that night at about 1am. We were coming down to the wire…but we made it: Wednesday morning I sent the final uncopyedited draft (typos are in our DNA) to our team:

Indivisible: A Practical Guide to Democracy on the Brink.
Donate Monthly to Support Indivisibles in Red States

A few hours later, we held the launch call with about 40,000 of you and Senator Elizabeth Warren. Since then, about 10,000 people have told us they’re looking to either be connected to a local group or start a new one. We had about 1000 people come to a training on “How to Start Your Local Indivisible Group” this week, and we’re hosting another one tomorrow. We drove 20,000 calls to Congress to unify Dems against a terrible bill that would increase Trump’s power (H.R. 9495). Matt Gaetz has come and gone. And we’ve talked to more press about building defiance to Trump 2.0 more times than I can count — this one that ran in USA Today is my favorite so far.

Some things have changed for the better. At this point in 2016, we didn’t have an Indivisible movement or organization. We didn’t have any real ties to the pro-democracy world of brilliant thinkers, researchers, and doers. We didn’t have a professionalized Indivisible national team of expert organizers, policy wonks, digital mavens, and technical wizards. Hell, we didn’t even have the original Indivisible guide — we wouldn’t start writing that until the weekend after Thanksgiving that year, and I didn’t post it until mid-December.

Yes, some things have gotten worse. The other side is more unified, prepared, and determined. What they’re planning to do is even scarier than last time. But we’ve also grown. We’ve also become better prepared. We also are determined from the get-go to fight for every inch.

We need your help to do that. Indivisible has always been a “fundraising second” operation — if you’re signed up on our list, you get far more messages from us about what you can do rather than what you can give. That’s important to us because first and foremost, we want you actually doing stuff. Too many political emails treat people like ATMs rather than real participants in the political process. 

We aim to fundraise with honesty and integrity so you can be proud to give and you can be proud to be part of Indivisible locally. With integrity in such short supply right now, that seems like a good thing to pump out into the world.

Here’s what I’d appreciate you considering: a monthly donation to Indivisible. If you don’t like what we’re doing, cancel it. But I want to defeat more MAGA legislation. I want to support and push our Democratic governors and mayors to fight back proactively. I want to protect our election infrastructure. I want Indivisible groups to show up in solidarity with all those who Trump 2.0 will target. And I want this work funded through grassroots dollars that make this movement accountable to the people and nobody else. 

A monthly donation will give us something Indivisible desperately needs as we head into the chaos to come: predictability. There are a lot of long weekends and late nights in coming months for Indivisible. I need to know we have the resources to support the team to get through it. Every dollar you are able to commit will go to reducing harm, building power, and defending our diminished democracy. 

Thank you for investing in this movement. We need you. 

In solidarity,
Ezra

IndivisibleEzra LevinCo-Executive DirectorPronouns: He/him

Be a Warrior, Not a Victim! – Why You Should NOT Listen to Polls

The current poll hysteria, which the media has been consumed by, was described by Ezra Levin (co-founder, Indivisible) as: Harris is down! These demographic groups are slipping! That battleground is lost! We’re losing!!!  Are things really so bad? Our answer is a resounding NO.  

Let’s dive deep into this. Over the past several decades, polls have failed miserably to identify winners in national elections. The causes for polling failures vary, but our conclusions are the same: don’t listen to the polls. Here’s why:

Inaccurate (#1) vs Partisan (#2) Polling:

#1 – Consider the presidential race between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, who was widely predicted to win, in part because of his late surge in the polls. In October 2012, Romney (49%) led Obama (45%) among likely voters and tied among registered voters. Yet in early November, Obama won the popular vote by 4% and the electoral college 332 to 206. 

What happened? After the 2012 election, USA Today reported: “Pollsters at Gallup later identified flawed methods that contributed to their incorrect prediction that Mitt Romney would win the 2012 presidential election, but they are still working to determine how to better identify who is likely to vote.” But even now, stubborn biases continue to plague pollsters.

#2 – Then recall the famed “Red Wave” of 2022 – which turned Blue on Election Day. A few weeks later, the New York Times published “The ‘Red Wave’ Washout: How Skewed Polls Fed a False Election Narrative.” Sound familiar? 

This NYT review noted that the use of skewed polls serves partisan interests. This can happen when more reliable nonpartisan pollsters conduct fewer polls, perhaps because of low resources. The gap is filled by an onrush of poor quality or partisan polls, which can then seep into computing averages. Since polling drives campaigns and public opinion, skewed polls deliberately pollute the election narrative – with negative consequences for the other side.  

What do these weaponized polls accomplish? 

  • Misdirection of campaign funding:  In 2022, skewed polls spooked some strong candidates into overspending and/or using up campaign money at the expense of underfunded candidates who might otherwise have had a fighting chance to win (remember Democrat Mandela Barnes’ lost Senate race in Wisconsin?)
  • Manipulation of media coverage: deserving candidates that poll badly may not receive as much airtime as they need or deserve to remain relevant in these days of click viewership. Similarly, polls can lead to disinformation and control of momentum to gain an advantage over the opposition.
  • Psychological warfare against the opposition: sapping energy, enthusiasm, and ultimately effort and money from supporters. And conversely, energizing the partisan base (and increasing their donations). 
  • And as Ezra Levin noted: “Trump and his MAGAs are actively building a sense of inevitability so they can turn around and deny the results after they lose.”  Trump used this ploy in 2020, and it’s currently his game plan for 2024. 

Can we believe the polls in predicting the outcome of the 2024 presidential election? Again, the answer is No.

Today (10/21/2024), the NYT published a comprehensive updated review of polls and pollsters. They noted that while procedural corrections have been made to increase accuracy and to reduce partisan influence, technical issues and uncorrected biases still remain. The review also identifies “reliable” pollsters and reports their results – which are split almost evenly between Harris and Trump. 

The take-home is that even reliable, nonpartisan polling cannot accurately predict the winner of a VERY TIGHT RACE – one that is tighter than we’ve seen in recent history – like that of Harris vs.Trump.

How do we deal with inaccurate or partisan polling? 

There are two simple answers, both of which exercise your personal power:

The first is to stop listening to polls, despite the temptation. Reject the Big Media Talking Heads and accept the fact that NO ONE KNOWS who is going to win. And remember, the other side wants you to keep worrying for their own purposes.Ignore them! 

The second is work, work, WORK!  Grassroots activism is most powerful in very close races, when a few thousand votes may lead to victory or defeat. Democrats are working hard while MAGAs are lying and manipulating. The Democrats are now a powerful Turnout machine – but we keep working right up to the finish line. 

So BE A WARRIOR, NOT A VICTIM! As Michelle Obama advises: just DO SOMETHING. And do it promptly, while you can still make a difference. Find the best actions for you on Turn Purple 2 Blue.

Election Timeline

We have looked at new protections that will help avert a MAGA Coup in How to Stop the (Real) Steal. As we get closer, it is important to understand the timeline of election after November 5th. Robert Hubbell explains in “Make a Plan for Election Night and Beyond“

“The final outcome of the election will not be known on election night. Gone are the days when staying up until 1:00 a.m. on Election Night would reveal “the winner.” Unless it is clear on Tuesday night that Kamala Harris will win several “sunbelt” states, it will be several days before the network prediction desks will be confident in predicting the presidential race.

There will likely be a “red mirage” on Election Night.  As in 2016, 2018, and 2020, the election night counts will make it appear that Republicans are doing better than the final votes will show. Why? Some states require that same-day, in-person votes be counted first, which will exclude early voting and mail ballots—which tend to favor Democrats. See, e.g., New York Magazine, We May See Another ‘Red Mirage’ on Election Night 2024.  So, do not panic! …

On election night, Trump will use the “red mirage” phenomenon to claim that he won and that the vote count should stop. He did so in 2016 and 2020 and will do so again in 2024. Don’t overreact….

Let the process play out. Try not to overreact to GOP lawsuits or delays in certifications. The last day for certifying the electors for each state is December 11, 2024 (the day on which each state’s executive issues “certificates of ascertainment”). That delay is intended to allow election challenges to play out in the courts. The Electoral Count Reform Act provides for expedited review by federal courts of appeal and the Supreme Court. The slates of electors meet in their respective states on December 17, 2024. The new House is sworn in, en masse by the Clerk, on January 3, 2025 at Noon. Mike Johnson—the outgoing Speaker—does not swear in the newly elected House members and cannot refuse to seat the newly elected members of Congress. Kamala Harris, the sitting vice president until January 20, 2025, presides over the Joint Session of Congress on January 6, 2025 at which time the electoral ballots are counted.”

So keep working. The best way to avert challenges is for us to win by as large as margin as possible. There is a limited time after November 5 for voters to correct errors in mail in or provisional ballots. If you can, train now for ballot curing in Pennsylvania or other states.

Stay tuned. I recommend Marc Elias’ Democracy Docket for legal updates. If protests or standouts are needed, Indivisible will organize nation-wide events.

In 2018, when we were losing the battle for the John Lewis Voting Rights Act, I attended a rally in DC. A grandaughter of Martin Luther King, Sr. spoke eloquently about the decades that Black Americans fought for their civil rights, and the ongoing fight for racial and criminal justice. She called upon us to stiffen our spines, and keep fighting for Democracy. I wish I had her exact words to quote, but that memory has been a guiding light for me. I do believe that Harris will win, and that we will flip the House. But no matter what happens, we have learned that the fight for Democracy, just as the fight for justice, is ongoing. We can and will prevail. The only way they win is if we stop fighting.

Update: Flip the House

With only four weeks left until the November general election, it’s time to check in on our House Strategy. Democrats only need to flip a net of five seats to regain the majority, which is very doable considering that Democrats continue to outperform the polls. However, at the same time, we must protect incumbent Democrats from Republican challenges.

Our strategy has been to concentrate on races in our battleground states in order to utilize a “nesting strategy.”  A nesting strategy is the practice of prioritizing our work in states where there is an electoral vote for Biden, a Senate seat,  and various House seats.

 It’s important to realize that these ratings groups have similar problems as polls.  There is a lag between what is happening in the electorate and their posted ratings.  They also have a difficult time measuring how women’s rage about Dobbs will affect the election; i.e. their historical models may not describe the current electorate at all.  In addition, just like in 2022, the pundits are not including the considerable input of grassroots volunteers like ourselves.   We still have 24 races rated toss-up.  We’re still in the “margin of effort.”  So let’s keep working!

There are a few specifics we can talk about.  We have been watching the Cook Political Ratings all year.  Comparing their ratings from September 6 to the June ratings, we see some movement:

  • Peltola (AK-AL) has moved from Lean Democratic to Toss-up.
  • Steel (CA-45) has moved from Lean Republican to Toss-up.
  • Bacon (NE-02) has moved from Lean Republican to Toss-up.
  • Bobert (CO-03) has moved from Lean Republican to Likely Republican. 

Ballotpedia has a useful summary of the House races which compares the four major ratings systems: The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, Decision Desk HQ and The Hill, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball as of September 2024.  It’s interesting to look at where the groups diverge in their ratings:

  • Schweikert (AZ-01) – split between toss-up and Lean Republican
  • Ciscomani (AZ-06)- split between two toss-ups, Lean and Likely Republican by the other two.
  • Lawler (NY-17) –  rated four different ways from Lean Dem. to Lean Rep.
  • Molinaro (NY-19) – rated toss-up to Lean Rep.

A bright spot:  Alabama (02) is an open seat in a newly drawn district after much litigation.  It is considered Likely Democrat.  This is considered a flip from Red to Blue!

The fight for control of the US House remains incredibly tight.  We must keep working through Election Day, and then curing ballots in the week after.  Donations are still crucial, as candidates scramble for last minute mailers, phonebanks, textbanks, and materials for canvassing.  Force Multiplier has an easily customizable donation link.  The candidates on their Impact Slate have the most need, but Force Multiplier also has a list of other candidates that they are watching closely.  You can also see our battleground candidates on TurnPurple2Blue’s donation page.

Let’s continue our good work!

Donate and customize through Force Mulitiplier
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Powerful Postcarders Pivot Purposefully!

Thank you powerful postcarders for writing all year!  You have been dedicated and done the hard work of persuasion and getting out the vote.  Now that registrations are completed, vote by mail ballots are requested, and early voting has begun, it’s time to pivot from postcards to other forms of Get Out The Vote (GOTV) outreach.  

We want to win the presidency, and win by as large a margin as possible to make it harder for election deniers to get traction.

We also want to win a House and Senate for Kamala so that our Democratic agenda can be enacted…swiftly.  Let’s get those voters to the polls – voting Blue up and down the ballot!

Let’s take a look at the kind of activities you can do now!

Take Action: Phone

Phone banking

Grab your kitty, or chocolate, or whatever makes you happy and set a goal.  Can you talk to ten people?  The new autodialers make it very easy – and they are much improved if you haven’t used them recently.  Training is usually at the start of the phonebank. Get ready to jump in by using our handy list to find a time or subject best for you!  

Take Action:Text

Text Banking

These are not the texts demanding money – these are providing important voting information!  There are a lot fewer texting opportunities than phonebanking, so this is best if you have trained previously in texting.  But if you only need a quick refresher, you can still work in this important space to reach out to younger voters. If you have used Spoke or ThruText before it will come back easily!

Take Action: Messaging

Messaging

Last chance to reach out to your friends and family.  Every vote counts!  In addition, you can:

Follow our Instagram (and ask your kids to do the same).  Be sure to comment with four words to boost our algorithm so that more young people see our posts.  Can’t think of four words?  Just put “Vote Blue up and down the ballot!” #HarrisForThePeople, or something similar. 

Share these videos or Project 2025 information on your Facebook page – you are a trusted messenger to your family and friends!  

Take Action: Canvassing

Canvassing

Talk to people face to face or drive someone doing the door knocking!  (It’s a long way in between houses in some areas, so drivers are appreciated!)

Travel to Pennsylvania, or New York if you have a few days.  Day trips into New Hampshire are always fun.  And don’t forget we have canvassing here in Massachusetts – Rep. Margaret Scarsdale in Pepperell needs our help in a very purple district and we have Five ballot initiatives on the ballot with very little information accessible to voters.

Take Action: More Actions

Election and Voter Protection

Your local town clerk needs volunteers to staff the polls – especially for early voting.  But in addition to helping in Massachusetts, you can help “cure” ballots and protect elections in battleground states.  There are many different opportunities from research to helplines to phonebanks – all interacting with voters who are eager to make their vote count!

Take Action: Donate

Donations

Phonebanking, textbanking and printed materials for canvassing costs money.  Our trusted grassroots partners are spending down to the wire to bring home the win!  Consider donating your postcard money to one of these groups – and let’s remember their work does not stop on November 5th.

So Powerful Purposeful Paladins, let’s understand the assignment and Pivot!

Reach Young Voters through Instagram

Update: We’re over 2,000 followers! Please sign on, follow and make a comment of at least four words. This helps push our post out to more people.

To reach voters under 35, please help us build strength for our Insta account! Whenever you follow or comment on our posts, it boosts them in the algorithm, and more people see them.

  1. Follow our page here! While you are here, check out all the great reels we have!
  2. Like and share often
  3. Comments of four or more words are the best help!

It’s clear that the future of our democracy depends on the engagement of Americans under 35. This demographic is not on Facebook. But, we can reach them on our fabulous Instagram account managed by Linda in Illinois. (Remember I always say Acton Area is state of mind!)