What is the Democratic chance of regaining the majority in the US House after Republican redistricting and the SCOTUS Callais decision allowing Southern states to eliminate Black congressional districts? Let’s look at the factors in play.
There is a historical pattern of the party in power losing control of the House. In 2018, we flipped 40 seats Blue. Will that principle hold in 2026 after all the redistricting maneuvering? Keep in mind that this year, we only need to flip 4 seats Blue to regain control.
Gerrymander or Dummymander?
Texas started the wave of mid-decade redistricting, traditionally occurring after the census. They redrew the maps to increase their 25-13 advantage to a 30-8 Republican advantage. Mapmakers created five additional Republican-leaning seats to protect the GOP’s House majority.
How did they choose the new maps? Mapmakers used statistics from the 2024 election when the country lurched to the right and Trump’s numbers in Black and Latino men surged. They assumed that these voters have permanently moved into the Republican column, no matter what happens.
These maps were created by moving Democratic voters into traditionally Republican districts. Essentially, they traded 25 relatively safe seats for 30 more contestable seats.
A “Dummymander” occurs when redistricting accidentally benefits the other party. The new Texas districts contain Black and Latino men that swung Republican in 2024 and many more consistent Democratic voters. After DEI attacks, voting suppression and ICE abuses, it is not a given that minority swing voters will stay Republican. It is entirely possible to still win those seats and negate the advantage Texas tried to enshrine.
Louisiana v. Callais
In fact, SCOTUS’s partisan intervention so late into the election season was in part due to the realization that the five seats in Texas were not certain. The Roberts court continued its vendetta against The Voting Rights Act of 1965, allowing states to eliminate “racial gerrymandering,” the practice of ensuring proportionality of representation to population.
The free for all that ensued afterwards – when voting had already started in some states, created a possibility of 6 to 7 more districts weighted for Republicans.
At the same time, it guaranteed minority anger and mobilization: civil rights groups like Black Voters Matter, rapidly organized mass rallies, protests, and localized voter drives across the South (such as the “We Got Us” tour in Alabama) to directly counteract the ruling.
Generic Ballot
Ahead of elections, pollsters estimate the mood of the voters in several ways. They ask questions like: Is the country moving in the right direction? What is the most important issue to you and your family? If the elections for U.S. Congress were being held today, would you vote for the Republican Party’s candidate or the Democratic Party’s candidate for Congress in your district?
The last question is what is called the “generic ballot” The generic ballot is a political poll which asks not which candidate you plan to vote for to represent you in Congress or for president, but rather which political party (Democrat, Republican or Independent) you would vote for if the election were held today.
All the democratic victories in special elections the past year are proof that the generic ballot is measuring the mood of the electorate.
The generic ballot is the best indicator of future elections, and currently Democrats are +11 in the generic ballot. That means that if a Republican won his seat last time by less than 10 points, his seat is not safe.
Keep Calm and Carry On
All the gerrymandering that Republicans are rushing to enforce may be for nought in this political and economic climate. Democratic voters are energized by the regime’s actions in immigration, foreign wars, and racist voter suppression. Swing Voters are disillusioned by corruption, inflation, and the price of gas and food. MAGA voters may stay home and not transfer their fealty to Trump to other candidates.
Robert Hubbell concludes, “We cannot rely on Trump and Republicans to defeat themselves, but after a week of bad news on the gerrymandering front, it is appropriate to recognize that Trump’s historic unpopularity is the dominant factor in the midterm elections. Trump’s unpopularity will overwhelm the GOP’s gerrymandering successes.
That fact does not mean that we can relent. It does not mean that winning the midterms will be easy. But it does mean that we can reject the defeatism being peddled by many in the media. Yes, gerrymandering matters. But it will not decide the midterms. Voters will. And Trump is doing his best to alienate voters of every political persuasion.” (May 13)
Take Action
In addition to working for elections as we have done in the past, it is important to support grassroots groups fighting racially based voter suppression. Indivisible.org has identified these organizations leading on this work in the Southern states affected by Callais. This list is not exhaustive, but to get you started, take a look at these groups, and please consider donating.
National
State/local
Alabama:
Georgia:
Louisiana:
North Carolina:
South Carolina
Tennessee:
Mississippi:
Florida:
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