The US House is in great flux this year, due to redistricting and retirements, and a change in the political climate. The “generic ballot”, which measures which party voters say they will vote for, is hovering around D+10. This means that races Republicans won by 7 or less points are now competitive.
There are many flippable US House races that TurnPurple2Blue won’t have the bandwidth to cover. We will prioritize House races in the same states as our Senate or Governor races. This nesting strategy will allow our actions to overlap and increase voting across the ballot in November. California and New York, although not nesting, will yield more flippable seats to work on.
However, we recognize that our readers may have interest in other races, e.g. a connection to that state, or a special dislike of the incumbent. Some of the primaries are quite late in the summer, and there is still time to help those primary candidates by donating or phone banking. We encourage you to support these candidates thoughtfully, and would like to share the criteria we use to evaluate them.
Choices In a Primary
Primaries present an important opportunity to make our Democratic candidates more responsive to the people, and less responsive to their corporate and lobbyist donors. So when choosing a primary candidate it is important to make sure your values match. Which corporations, PACs, and other elected officials support them? We don’t want to feed the “both sides are the same” trope. Here are some examples.
- Do they or their opponent take dark money or use PACs from crypto, AI, Monsanto, Chevron, etc?
- Do they benefit from AIPAC or other entities interfering in our domestic and foreign policy?
- Are they endorsed by problematic elected officials that have not vigorously resisted the Trump regime, e.g. Chuck Schumer or John Fetterman.
- Are they endorsed by anyone that has taken pro votes on crypto, AI, and weapons spending?
- Do they call themselves “Blue Dog” or “Problem Solvers Caucus” or “Third Way” (funded by the Koch Brothers)? This means that they will not work for progressive change either in civil rights or economics.
You can also look at their philosophies, e.g. do they have blind spots about demographic groups you care about?
Do Your Research
It is important not to take shortcuts. For instance, there is a new group in the fundraising space called Oath that claims to do all the vetting for you.
Looking closely at their choices, it is clear that they have backed many Democrats with red flags, without even discussing those problems. Dark money entities are spawning organizations with new names so it is essential to do the research before donating and engaging.
It’s easier to get a good person elected, than it is to lobby a problematic person after they are elected. So when choosing between Democrats in a PRIMARY, it is important to do your research carefully.
Choices In the General Election
Now it’s time to coalesce behind the Democrat no matter their stripe. Any D by their name will help us get the majority in either the House or the Senate. The majority is more important than a “perfect” candidate. The majority will allow us to control the agenda by choosing which votes come to the floor. It will also provide oversight through hearings. Only the majority can bring impeachment charges.
After the primary, it’s time to focus on the candidates’ race. How to tell if a race is worth your time and money:
- Check the Cook Political Rating and choose races that are toss-ups or lean Republican or lean Democrat, not likely or solid.
- Check the Cook Partisan Voting Index (with the generic ballot in our favor, anything R+8 is in play.)
- If your candidate is R+10 or above, this is a risky wild-card candidate. Conversely, if the candidate is D+10, it may be a waste of money that could be better spent on a close race.
Be Careful How You Donate
Donate directly to the candidate or trusted grassroots groups. Do not donate to large PACS (including the DCCC), no matter how compelling their name sounds. These groups are notorious for fundraising churn, where 80% of the money raised is spent on salaries and more fundraising. Avoid the deluge of fundraising texts by going directly to the candidate’s website to donate.
Here are what we consider to be safe grassroots groups to donate to:
- Black Voters Matter
- Force Multiplier
- Indivisible-endorsed candidates
- Justice Democrats
- States Win (formerly Sister District)
- Swing Left
- The States Project
- Working America
In addition to providing financial support to candidates, grassroots groups may also organize volunteers to canvas and phonebank to aid candidates’ campaigns. In state races, they may offer technical expertise. The state-focused groups are always an excellent choice and worthy of your support year-round. They are on the ground throughout the years, building local relationships and trust.
In Summary
- For the Primary, research the candidate.
- After the Primary, research the race.
- Always research the group asking for your money.
- Support worthy organizations year-round.
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