Election 2024 – Regions in Play

Electoral votes:

  • Michigan – 16 
  • Wisconsin – 10
  • Pennsylvania – 20

Region – Midwest:

The so-called midwestern “Blue Wall” states – Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania – are must-wins for the Democrats! With their 46 electoral votes, added to those from more reliably blue states, we can reach the 270 required for winning the presidency. These states have been solidly Democratic since 1992, except in 2016 when Trump flipped all three states by a combined margin of 80,000 total votes to win the election. Then in 2020, Biden took all three states back in another narrow victory. Currently, all three are rated “Toss Ups.”


Electoral votes:

  • Georgia – 16
  • North Carolina -15

Region – Coastal South:  

Georgia and North Carolina are two battleground states that can be game-changers with their combined 31 electoral votes. Both are currently rated Lean Red. Both states have both large urban and rural populations and large Black constituencies throughout the state. Winning margins again are small: in 2020, Biden won Georgia with less than 12,000 votes (0.23%) while North Carolina went for Trump, who won by 1.3%.

 

Electoral votes:

  • Arizona – 11
  • Nevada – 6

Region – Southwestern Desert:  

Arizona and Nevada share large Latinx and indigenous populations, and both are currently politically competitive. Like Georgia and North Carolina, the two desert states are both rated Lean Red. However, they have very different political histories. Like Georgia, Arizona has long been Republican but Biden flipped it in 2020 with a mere 10,457 votes. (0.3%). Nevada for decades had been Democratic, and went for Biden in 2020 by 2.4%.  However, Nevada has been experiencing growing discontent with Democrats that has led it to trend Republican. To win these two states, and gain their 17 electoral votes, Arizona must continue to trend Blue, and the Red slide in Nevada must stop.

Black Voters Matter

Black Voters Matter‘s goal is to increase power in marginalized, predominantly Black communities. We believe that effective voting allows a community to determine its own destiny. We agree with the words of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. when he said, “Power at its best is love implementing the demands of justice, and justice at its best is power correcting everything that stands against love.”

We seek to achieve our goals with the following 5 core beliefs in mind:

  • The key to effective civic engagement and community power is understanding, respecting and supporting local infrastructure.
  • BLACK VOTERS MATTER not only on election day, but on the 364 days between election days as well. This means we must support individuals and organizations that are striving to obtain social justice throughout the year.
  • BLACK VOTERS MATTER *everywhere*, including rural counties and smaller cities/towns that are often ignored by candidates, elected officials, political parties and the media.
  • In order for Black voters to matter, we must utilize authentic messaging which speaks to our issues, connects with our hopes and affirms our humanity.
  • The leadership, talent and commitment demonstrated by Black women in particular must receive recognition and, more importantly, *investment* in order to flourish and multiply.

Text with Black Voters Matter

Tuesdays at 6 PM. Join Black Voters Matter every week as we gather to drive change through digital organizing. Our texting campaigns will give you the opportunity to engage residents across the U.S. while empowering them to make a positive impact in their communities. We already sent over 5 million text this year educating residents on local elections, environmental justice, police reform, and so much more! During the event we will provide training, discuss our latest texting campaign, and we will take action.

Think It Can’t Happen Here? Read on…

We always thought we were safer than everyone else. The United States had a centuries-old, stable democracy and a relatively isolated geography, giving the illusion that the country was protected from domestic or international threat. We were dead wrong.

This “Can’t-Happen-Here” illusion came crashing down on September 11, 2001. Despite forewarnings of terrorism abroad, many Americans assumed it wouldn’t happen here in the U.S. But the terrorists had judged correctly that America was wide open and defenseless due to our complacency, and they exploited our lack of precaution. Then, only twenty years later, we watched in horror and disbelief at an attempted coup in our Capitol – something that previously had seemed truly unimaginable. So IT CAN HAPPEN HERE…

Now flash-forward to another threat – fascism, now raising its head in Europe and other parts of the world. In the early 1900s, Mussolini’s Italian fascists imposed totalitarian rule and crushed political and intellectual opposition, while forcing traditional and Christian values on the population. A few years later, following Mussolini’s playbook,  Hitler and his Nazi party added antisemitism, rampant nationalism, hatred of immigrants, and a “cult of violence.”  SOUND FAMILIAR?

We have learned that fascist regimes operate by promoting fanatical nationalism, contempt for electoral democracy and political/cultural liberalism, and the rule of the elite at the expense of the masses. Again, SOUND FAMILIAR?  It should – just see Project 2025, the MAGA vision of the future of the United States.
If we Americans do not wake up to the fascist threat by Trump and his MAGA policies, history will repeat itself. We will again be caught flat-footed, as we were on 9/11 and on Jan 6. But this time we may lose our democracy. YES, IT CAN HAPPEN HERE. And it could, unless we work hard to prevent it.  Read on…

Goal: Flip the US House

With only four months left until the November general election, it’s time to check in on our House Strategy.  Democrats only need to flip a net of five seats to regain the majority.  This is very doable, considering that Democrats continue to outperform the polls. However, at the same time, we must protect incumbent Democrats from Republican challenges.

Our strategy has been to concentrate on races in our battleground states in order to utilize a “nesting strategy.”  A nesting strategy is the practice of uplifting registration and messaging in a state where there is the most to be gained:  the electoral vote for Biden, a Senate seat,  various House seats and statewide offices.   Let’s summarize the House races in the states that we are working in:

  • Arizona (primary Aug 6).  We are watching two seats currently held by Republicans:  Schweikert (AZ-01) and Ciscomani (AZ-06).  Cook Political rates these as “toss up”  There is a lot of activity in Arizona because of the Senate race and the Right to Abortion initiative which will be on the November ballot.
  • California.  Many groups are concentrating on California because of the cluster of “Unrepresentatives,” Republicans defending House seats where Biden won in 2020. These include:  Duarte (C-13), Vladao (C-22), Garcia (C-27) and Calvert (CA-41) all rated “toss up” by Cook Political.   Steel (CA-45) is rated as “lean Republican.”  State Senator Dave Min won the primary for CA-47 (Katie Porter’s vacated seat), which is rated as “Lean Democrat.”  
  • Michigan (primary Aug 6).  There are two seats rated as “toss up” and both democratic incumbents are not running. Elissa Slotkin (MI-07) resigned to run for Senate.  Dan Kildee (MI-08)  announced his retirement.  Protecting these seats doesn’t count for the five needed to flip the House and these seats are vulnerable.
  • New York New York also has a cluster of “Unrepresentatives,” Republicans defending House seats where Biden won in 2020. Republicans D’Esposito (NY-04), Lawler (NY-17) and Molinaro (NY-19) are rated as “toss-up” by Cook Political and are ripe for defeat.  We already flipped NY-03, with Suozzi taking a decisive victory in the special election earlier this year. He still has to run again this November.  
  • Nevada We have been writing for Democratic incumbents in Nevada because the electorate there changes rapidly.  We have two “Likely Democrat” seats to protect: Titus (N-01) and Horsford (NV-04).  Lee (NV-03) is rated “lean Democrat.”  Protecting these seats doesn’t count for the 5 needed to flip the House.
  • Ohio We have two seats in danger here.  Kaptur (OH-09) and Sykes (OH-13) both need to be protected and both are rated as “toss-ups.” Protecting these seats doesn’t count for the 5 needed to flip the House.
  • Pennsylvania There are three competitive seats, all currently held by Democrats.  Delusio (PA-17) is rated as a “lean Democrat.”  Wild (PA-07) and Cartwright (PA-08) are rated as “toss-up.”  Protecting these seats doesn’t count for the 5 needed to flip the House.
  • Wisconsin (Primary 8/13) Wisconsin is a purple state, with control between Democrats and Republicans constantly shifting.  In 2024, there is one competitive House race, Van Orden (WI-03), rated as “lean Republican.”  This could be as serendipitous flip as we write for the Senate seat there.

There are other isolated House races that are possible flips or need protecting in Colorado, Maine, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oregon, and Washington.   Many of these races are included in Force Multiplier’s slate of candidates.  If you are interested in reading more about these candidates or donating to them, check out Force Multiplier.

Abortion Rights Actions – You Can Make A Difference

Life in a Post-Roe America Toolkit

Compiled and updated by IMC’s Feminist Action Team

We need all hands on deck to protect reproductive rights! This toolkit, which is updated regularly, has links to a wide variety of actions you can take whether you have only a few minutes to spare or more time to spend. Please share!

Since the Dobbs decision overturned Roe v Wade, 41 states have some abortion restrictions and 14 states have a total ban. Massachusetts is now a target of religious extremists who want to turn back the clock on our rights.

Share this toolkit at https://bit.ly//ROEToolkit with your friends. You will find imporant actions such as:

  1. Protecting Reproductive rights in Massachuetts
  2. Working with other Reproductive Rights Activists
  3. How to help someone who needs an abortion
  4. Where to donate money
  5. How to pass Critical Legislation in Congress
  6. How to protect your privacy
  7. How to share information on social media
  8. How to cut ties with Walgreens
  9. How to get more information or keep up with latest news
  10. Encourage training or other options for abortion providers.

For inspiration, please listen to the songs performed at our June 2024 Reproductive Rights Rally and Denali’s heartfelt recounting of her friend’s abortion in 1969.

Words to Win By: Anat Shenker-Osorio & Indivisible

We were so inspired at the IMC Statewide Convening on June 9th by Anat Shenker-Os0rio’s video presentation of Words to Win By. Founder of ASO Communications, and host of Words to Win By podcast, Shenker-Osorio’s work has led to progressive electoral and policy victories around the world. Learn about what she calls the power of “mobi-suasion” which uses the powers of persuasion and mobilization! Follow her on facebook and share her posts to get the word out!

Click on the Image to see her presentation!

Trump’s Radical Platform, Project 2025

Some Frequently Asked Questions

So What is Project 2025 Anyway?

Project 2025 represents a sweeping vision for our nation’s future, encompassing a wide range of policy proposals that reflect regressive and harmful ideologies. It aspires to resurrect and amplify the initiatives championed by the Trump administration, spanning policy areas like census citizenship questions, the promotion of Christian nationalism, climate change denial, economic policies that favor the wealthy, attacks on education and scientific research, the erosion of democratic norms through expanded presidential powers, destructive foreign policies, assaults on press freedom, regressive healthcare reforms, draconian immigration policies, discriminatory practices against marginalized communities, the politicization of law enforcement, reckless approaches to national security, infringements on reproductive rights, and neglect of sustainable transportation solutions.

Who’s Behind this Right Wing Manifesto?

In 2022, Heritage Foundation president Kevin Roberts originated Project 2025 following incidents where civil service workers resisted Trump’s radical policy implementations, such as the Muslim travel ban and his response to the George Floyd protests. The Mandate, published in April 2023, was authored by hundreds of conservatives, including former Trump administration officials. The project is funded by dark money contributions linked to conservative donor Leonard Leo and fossil fuel billionaire Charles Koch. While other Republican primary candidates were briefed on the project, it is primarily a Trump-driven endeavor. Reports surfaced of plans for a potential second Trump presidency, including targeting and jailing critics, led by extremists like Kash Patel, Steve Bannon, and Mike Davis, who openly spoke of a “three-week reign of terror” if Trump names him acting attorney general.

Can You Give Some Policy Specifics?

Census Citizenship Question: The project seeks to revive a controversial effort to include a citizenship question in the U.S. census despite concerns about its potential to discourage participation and inaccurately represent the population.

Christian Nationalism: Project 2025 advocates for integrating Christian nationalist ideology into government and public life, raising concerns about the erosion of the separation between church and state and excluding non-Christian perspectives.

Climate Change Mitigation: The project opposes critical efforts to mitigate climate change, prioritizing the interests of fossil fuel industries over the urgent need to transition to renewable energy sources and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Economy: It promotes economic policies that primarily benefit the wealthy and large corporations, advocating for tax cuts and deregulation while neglecting investments in social programs and infrastructure that could help working-class Americans.

Education and Research: Project 2025 proposes drastic cuts to federal education funding and eliminating important programs like free school meals, undermining efforts to ensure equal access to education and support for vulnerable students.

Expansion of Presidential Powers: It seeks to consolidate power in the hands of the president, threatening the independence of federal agencies and undermining democratic checks and balances.

Foreign Affairs: The project promotes an aggressive and isolationist approach to foreign policy, prioritizing military strength over diplomacy and cooperation with international allies.

Journalism: It aims to undermine press freedom by questioning accommodations for journalists and promoting a narrative that aligns with its conservative agenda.

Healthcare: Project 2025 advocates for regressive healthcare policies that restrict access to essential services and discriminate against marginalized communities, including transgender individuals and low-income families.

Immigration Reforms: It promotes harsh immigration policies that prioritize deportation and border security over compassion and human rights, ignoring the contributions of immigrants to society.

Issues of Identity: The project promotes discriminatory policies that marginalize LGBTQ+ individuals and people of color, rejecting efforts to promote diversity and inclusion in society.

Law Enforcement: It seeks to politicize law enforcement agencies and undermine their independence, threatening civil liberties and perpetuating systemic injustice.

National Security: Project 2025 prioritizes military strength over diplomacy and international cooperation, risking conflict and instability on the global stage.

Reproductive Issues: It promotes restrictive policies that infringe upon reproductive rights and deny individuals access to essential healthcare services, including abortion and contraception.

Transportation: The project opposes investments in sustainable transportation infrastructure, prioritizing the interests of polluting industries over public health and environmental conservation.

What Can I Do to Stop Project 2025?

Here’s how you can help (be sure to find action links below.)

  1. Spread the Word with Effective Messaging
  2. Work to Elect Democratic Candidates
  3. Help Democrats Update their Voter Registration
  4. Get Out the Democratic Vote
Can You Recommend Actions to Spread the Word?

Yep! Indivisible Freedom Writers has created a social media toolkit. Choose a pre-made meme and click to share it on your platform of choice.

Do You Have Actions to Elect Dems to the House, Senate & White House?

Glad you asked! That’s what Turn Purple 2 Blue is all about. We have pages for each.

How Can I Help Register Voters and Get Out the Democratic Vote?

We have phonebanks and postcards!

John Oliver has a great presentation on P2025. Known for deep investigative reporting on very dry subjects interspersed with silly humor, he really explains how the attack on the civil service will work. Watch at 12:44 if you want to skip to that.

Read Project 2025 in its entirety.

Holding Nevada is Crucial and Within Our Reach

While recent events in Nevada are troubling, this is no time to freak out. It’s not too late for us to impact the November election. For nearly two decades, Nevada has been a Democratic stronghold, driven by a youthful, diverse population and strong labor unions. However, recent polls show Donald Trump leading President Biden, attributed to voter frustrations over housing costs, inflation, and gas prices. In 2020, Biden narrowly won Nevada by 2.4 points, but now Trump leads among young voters and Hispanic voters. This critical swing state’s slow economic recovery from the pandemic and high living costs are significant factors in Biden’s declining support. Despite Biden’s efforts to address these issues, economic discontent persists. Increasing voter registration and turnout in Nevada is imperative to maintain Democratic control and counter the growing influence of the Republican Party.

The Biden campaign remains hopeful, relying on Nevada’s history of late-breaking Democratic support and a strong ground game led by the influential Culinary Workers Union. They plan to emphasize issues like abortion rights, hoping to mobilize voters with a potential ballot measure to enshrine abortion access in the state constitution. The Biden campaign also highlights job creation and infrastructure projects, aiming to shift voter perception through extensive outreach and increased visits from Biden, Harris, and other surrogates. However, Trump’s relentless presence and the fallacy of his strength on economic issues, coupled with the difficulty of reaching a population with dynamic influx and outflow, pose a significant challenge to Biden’s re-election efforts in Nevada.

“Nothing is likelier to bolster Mr. Biden’s chances than abortion, an issue that has aided Democratic candidates since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022, ending a constitutional right to the procedure. Even in conservative states, voters have turned out in droves to back abortion rights. Nevada is likely to have a measure on the November ballot that would enshrine access to abortion until fetal viability, or about 24 weeks, in the state’s Constitution.”

– Kellen Browning and Nicholas Nehamas, New york times

Sam Brown, front-running Republican opponent of incumbent Nevada Senator Jacky Rosen, is flip-flopping his stance on abortion and distancing himself from his previous positions while downplaying his views on the issue. Like other Republicans in the current election cycle, Brown deflects by saying abortion legislation should be determined by states, indicating he wouldn’t support a federal ban due to Nevada’s constitutional protections. However, Rosen’s campaign noted Brown’s past involvement in and support of anti-abortion organizations. It said he “is a direct threat to Nevadans’ reproductive freedom, and he cannot be trusted to protect abortion rights in the Senate.”

The Culinary Union Local 226 and close affiliate Bartenders Union Local 165, significant political players in Nevada, have recently withdrawn their endorsements from 17 incumbent state-level Democratic lawmakers ahead of the primary election. Together, these unions represent 60,000 workers in the gaming, hotel, and food service industries of Las Vegas and Reno. This move follows the lawmakers’ support for Senate Bill 441, which repealed a daily hotel room cleaning mandate from the COVID-19 pandemic. Though these influential unions have withdrawn support, only four affected candidates face opponents in the primary, and the unions have indicated they will reassess endorsements before November.

While we can’t discount the obstacles, we have strong allies in Nevada. In East Las Vegas, where many residents work long hours in hospitality and culinary jobs, political engagement thrives through “The Little Garage,” a community hub initiated in 2016. This garage-turned-outpost hosts political activities, including phone banks, canvassing, and visits from prominent Democrats. Its approach fosters neighborly interactions and encourages meaningful dialogue. The Little Garage and other grassroots groups have been impactful in electoral victories like Catherine Cortez-Masto’s Senate win by less than one percentage point in 2022, and these groups exemplify the power of community engagement in shaping democratic outcomes.

Despite challenges, Biden and Democrats remain determined. They believe in the resilience of Nevada’s electorate and their party’s ability to connect with voters on crucial issues. With a persistent commitment to addressing economic concerns, advocating for workers’ rights, supporting abortion rights, and leveraging grassroots support, the campaigns plan to reverse momentum and secure victory in Nevada on election day. Holding Nevada is crucial and within our reach; here’s how you can help:

This is a Choice that Could Not Be Clearer

Text of Ken Burns 2024 Commencement Address | Brandeis.


Burns said,

[I]f I have learned anything over those years, it’s that there’s only “us.” There is no “them.” And whenever someone suggests to you, whomever it may be in your life that there’s a “them,” run away. “Othering” is the simplistic binary way to make and identify enemies, but it is also the surest way to your own self imprisonment, which brings me to a moment I’ve dreaded [because it] forces me to suspend my longstanding attempt at neutrality.


There is no real choice this November. There is only the perpetuation, however flawed and feeble you might perceive it, of our fragile 249-year-old experiment or the entropy that will engulf and destroy us if we take the other route.


The presumptive Republican nominee is the opioid of all opioids, an easy cure for what some believe is the solution to our myriad pains and problems. When in fact, with him, you end up re-enslaved with an even bigger problem, a worse affliction and addiction, “a bigger delusion” [and] our national suicide as Mr. Lincoln prophesies[d].


Do not be seduced by easy equalization. There is nothing equal about this equation. We are at an existential crossroads in our political and civic lives. This is a choice that could not be clearer.