Nevada, long a blue state and now purple, is pivotal for the midterms but difficult to call.  Elections are uniquely challenging to forecast in Nevada, since the electorate is highly transient – half of all voters are new to the state since 2016 – and the largest bloc in the state is unaffiliated voters. Latinos, who make up nearly a quarter of the state’s population, traditionally have voted Democratic in Nevada. Yet many now are voting Republican because of the economy.  Nevadans are heavily dependent on the Las Vegas economy, so many vote out of pocketbook concerns. But Nevadans also care deeply about voting rights, access to abortion, education, fair immigration policies, and other key social issues. So Nevada is politically balanced on a knife edge, and we can make a real difference here with our grassroots power!   

So what’s happening now in Nevada? Here’s an update on the most important midterm races:

Senate: The race between incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto (D) and Adam Laxalt (R), both former Nevada Attorneys General, is rated a Toss Up by Cook Political Report. Cortez Masto, the first Latina elected to the Senate, is considered one of the most vulnerable Democratic Senators in the 2022 midterms. Cortez Masto has been hailed as a champion for women’s and abortion rights. But as the Democratic incumbent, she also has been dogged by narrative that Biden and the Democrats have ruined the economy. This perception has lost her Latino support. Opponent Laxalt is a Trump protege who has called the 2020 election “rigged” and Roe v. Wade “a joke.” Although Cortez Masto has raised more funds than Laxalt has to date, Republicans are pumping money into this race in anticipation of a flip. We must win this race to keep the Senate! The Cortez Masto campaign needs grassroots donations and help with Nevada postcards and phonebanks.

Governor: The race between sitting Governor Steve Sisolak (D) and current Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo, is also rated a Toss-Up by Cook Political. Governor Sisolak, who has successfully defended Nevada from Republican extremists in the legislature, is weighed down by the same anti-Biden economic propaganda as Senator Cortez Masto. Like the Senator, Sisolak also has lost Latino votes due to emphasis on the economy. Lombardo, a pro-life Trump endorsee, accuses Sisolak of crippling Nevada’s tourism-heavy economy with coronavirus restrictions. Donate to the Sisolak campaign or to the Democratic Governors Association to help Steve Sisolak keep blue control of this key swing state.

Secretary of State: The race between Cisco Aguilar (D) and former state Rep. Jim Marchant (R) is frightening, potentially putting the fox in charge of the chicken coop.  The Secretary of State position is the official responsible for overseeing elections in the state. Marchant is a flagrant election denier who would not have certified Biden’s election in 2020 and who would favor “alternate electors” in 2024. Marchant himself lost a congressional race in 2020 and, taking a page from the Trump playbook, claimed without evidence that the election was stolen from him. His number one priority is to “overhaul the fraudulent election system in Nevada.” Meanwhile, Aguilar favors an extensive set of strategies to counter voter suppression and make sure that all votes are cast and counted. Vote Forward has a new experimental initiative (Lab) in support of Cisco Aguilar, the first candidate ever to receive the support of a Vote Forward campaign. Or donate to the Democratic-association-of-secretaries-of-state (DASS) which provides financial support to SOS candidates. 

August 18, 2022 by Christine Brown

The anger resulting from SCOTUS’s destruction of women’s rights has woken the electorate and the tide is turning in our favor.  But it sure is nice to have something positive to run on as well!  Although it’s not everything in Build Back Better, it is crucial legislation that shows how Democrats can govern.

It’s really a BFD – and has many important provisions (full text of bill).   What is in the Inflation Reduction Act?

It’s a Climate Bill.

Robert Hubbell discusses the Climate gains and losses in his newsletter  Celebrating A Long-term Accomplishment  “The bill is the most significant investment in the climate crisis ever, and that investment came with steep concessions to the fossil fuel industry. The bottom line is that the legislation may help reduce carbon emissions in the US by 40% in the next decade.”

       He continues in Biden Signs the IRA “The Inflation Reduction Act is a sprawling piece of legislation that includes hundreds of provisions that will become apparent over time. An article in Vox lists several provisions that have received little attention. See Vox, The Inflation Reduction Act does more than clean energy and EV tax credits. Per Vox, the IRA includes,

1. $3 billion for community cleanup to ameliorate the effects of pollution and contamination in low-income neighborhoods. The money can be used for capping abandoned oil wells, installing noise barriers near freeways, reducing urban heat islands, reconnecting communities separated by highways, creating regional greenways, and building multi-use trails.
2. $10 billion to cover costs of rural electrical co-ops moving away from coal-based electrical generation (including shutting down 172 coal-fired generating facilities).
3. $5 billion in block grants to states trying to reduce their carbon footprints. Applicants are not limited to the governors or legislatures but can include independent public utilities seeking to decrease carbon emissions.
4. $20 billion for “climate-smart” agriculture and forestry practices, which will encourage farmers to capture carbon by planting “cover crops” and invest in protecting “old growth” forests that serve as carbon sinks.”

It’s a Healthcare bill.

Hubbell’s The Bonfire of Insanity details the healthcare provisions.  “For Medicare enrollees the IRA

• caps “out-of-pocket” drug costs at $2,000 per year 
• creates an average cost reduction per enrollee of $800 per year by allowing the government to negotiate prices for 100 drugs 
• sets a cap of $35 per month for insulin supplies. (Senate Republicans defeated a provision that would have extended the $35 monthly cap on insulin to all Americans.) 

It’s a tax reform bill

Don’t forget that this bill pays for itself.  Robert Hubbell continues by detailing the tax code changes in which the IRA:

• doubles tax credits for small businesses engaged in research and development, thereby incentivizing innovation.

• creates US jobs by specifying that tax credits for electric vehicles apply only to autos assembled in the United States. See The Hill,  Setting the record straight on the Inflation Reduction Act.

• Hires 80,000 new IRS agents who have been ordered “not to increase audits of households making less than $400,000 per year”—See CNN, Yellen directs IRS not to use new funding to increase chances of audits of Americans making less than $400,000. Indeed, a substantial portion of the new IRS agents will simply replace 50,000 IRS agents lost through attrition and cuts over the last decade

• pays  for these improvements by imposing a minimum 15% tax on corporations generating more than $1 billion per year. That provision aligns the US with 136 other countries that have adopted a similar minimum corporate tax—an effort designed to stop multinational corporations from evading taxes by playing a high-stakes, real-life game of “Where in the World is Carmen Sandiego?”      

What’s our job?  Share and talk about this with friends and family – make sure they know why you think it is important.  Don’t let our awareness of what is left to be done inhibit the celebration of a real start.  For Inspiration, US Rep. Mikie Sherrill cites respected climate activist Daniel Hunter, who said,

Who will want to join … if it’s all sadness and misery? Who will acknowledge our contributions if we fail to name them ourselves?”       Sherrill concludes, “Cynicism, in other words, does not build power – only hope can do that.”

August 3, 2022 by Christine Brown

Yesterday, the New York Times published an op-ed about Democrat’s failures. I agree that, yes, those fundraising emails are awful (that’s one reason we started TP2B). I also agree that door knocking is an important tool, however, they left out that the reason we didn’t door knock for 2020 was a deadly pandemic. And yes, we at Indivisible and Turn Purple to Blue totally agree about nurturing and empowering grassroots groups.

But then they attacked postcarding. Robert Hubbell has thoroughly addressed the op-ed in his August 2nd and August 3rd newsletters. I encourage you to read them in their entirety. But here are some important points:

The Study Cited was Flawed: From Robert Hubbell “…another person familiar with the study described it

          as tiny and poorly done. It was extremely small (a few thousand postcards). It wasn’t a randomized or controlled experiment. The postcards supported particular down-ballot candidates, but the researchers measured increase in turnout overall (which was not the purpose of the postcard campaign).

          Another reader posted a comment saying that she provided the data for the study cited in yesterday’s NYTimes article. She remarks that “although well-intentioned, the postcard study was flawed from the beginning and its conclusions, therefore, were suspect, due to a lack of communication between me and the researchers when the article was written.”

 There are Numerous Postive Studies:    From Robert Hubbell “I received many emails pointing to much larger studies showing a positive effect of up to 3% in voter turnout in response to postcards. For a general discussion of that research and links to studies, see a blog on Medium, A Gateway to Activism, Postcards Win Close Elections.

          Another reader from Reclaim Our Vote reported on several campaigns run by that group. She notes that

It’s worth underscoring that a relatively small percentage increase in voter turnout among the communities targeted for postcarding can have significant impact:

* In 2019 in Onslow, NC, 26% of purged voters to whom ROV sent postcards subsequently registered to vote.

* In 2020 in the Georgia primary, 3.3% of the 143,000 purged Black Georgia voters postcarded by ROV registered to vote.

* In 2021, in Petersburg, VA, there were 6100 voters with no phone number so ROV postcarded them, and 43% of them voted, compared with 40% voter turnout by all Petersburg Black voters.

          You might also enjoy this article from DemCast Usa summarizing earlier studies about the effectiveness of Postcards.

So, Powerful Postcarders. Thank you for your support and engagement. Postcards are an important tool. So is canvassing, phonebanks, and textbanks. I always say that there is so much to do: Choose what you like to do, and the topic that you are passionate about. As of this writing, Turn Purple 2 Blue has distributed almost 33,000 postcards to our writers since January 2022. You rock!

  

By Christine Brown, July 31, 2022

Update: 8/24/22: Good news that that the ringleaders of Governor Whitmer’s kidnapping attempt were convicted in Federal Court today. Update: 8/3/22 Rep. Peter Meijer, one of 10 Republicans that voted to impeach Trump, lost his primary to Trump endorsed challenger John Gibbs. Democrat Hillary Scholten will pursue this House Seat (MI-3). Governor Whitmer will face anti-abortion candidate Tudor Dixon in November. Dixon, who is endorsed by Betsy DeVos and Trump, said a 14 year old should be forced to give birth.

Michigan is fighting for its Democracy.   The Democratic Party controls the office of Governor, Secretary of State and Attorney General.   The Republican Party controls both chambers of the state legislature, and has been radicalized by insurrectionists. (Read How a Michigan Couple Radicalized the State)  The statehouse was attacked, and they attempted to kidnap Governor Whitmer. As in other places, radical Republicans are attacking public education and voting rights.

In addition to the strong and determined women holding statewide office (Governor Whitmer, Secretary of State Benson and Attorney General Nessel), another bright spot in Michigan is the Independent Redistricting Commission.  The Commission has been heralded as a model for redistricting reform. After the Republicans viciously gerrymandered the maps in 2010, the citizens of Michigan voted for the Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission, which established public criteria, non-politician commissioners, and gave the commission true authority to create and draw the maps.  Cognizant of the hyper partisanship of its government and citizens, the commission took great care to make the process transparent and fair. They were successful in their goals:  Watch the Evaluation here

However, there are strong anti-democractic forces. The Republican primary is full of insurrectionists- Politico has called it “The Messiest Primary” where the winner will be “King of the Trash Heap” and Secretary Benson has warned of the 2020- election deniers attacks on current elections.   

The latest attack comes from Michigan’s law about ballot measures.  Michigan is one of only two states that has a special constitutional provision adopted in less fraught times. Under this provision, “if 8 percent of statewide voters (about 340,000) sign petitions, the petition language can go straight to the state legislature.  When both the state House and Senate approve the petition language, it immediately becomes law.”  There is no further voting.  There is no veto by the Governor allowed.  Radicals are out gathering signatures for “five initiatives:  a “forensic audit” of the 2020 election; to “decertify” the 2020 election; prohibit the mailing of absentee ballot applications and strip voters of the option to sign an affidavit to attest to their identity; establish public funding for private school vouchers; and limit the public health emergency powers of state and local officials.”

Governor Whitmer used the law to get Abortion Rights on the ballot.  It will go to a vote, since the Republican legislature wants to ban abortion, and will not adopt the exact language of the initiative.

I hear from so many people that the democratic party is poor at messaging and that our base is discouraged.  Where are they getting these ideas?  

Let’s examine the media narrative for the midterm elections.

1.  A snapshot of X election, X candidate, X poll will determine the entire outcome of the midterm elections.  

2.  Biden has poor favorability ratings and therefore Democrats will lose the midterms.

3. Historically the opposing party takes back the House and/or Senate, therefore in this unprecedented time in history, the exact same thing will happen.

And I watch “liberal” media.

We need to remember what the media business model is:  drama, conflict and strife drive the ratings.  Polarizing, outrageous titles drive the clicks.  Fear sells.  Nuance, and subtlety, not so much.

Case in point:  The New York Times and others decided that loss of a progressive in the LA mayor’s primary and the recall of a progressive San Francisco District Attorney signaled the end of all progressive support in their article “California Sends Democrats and the Nation a Message on Crime”.  Regardless of the hundreds of other primaries that day, where progressives did just fine, the NYT pushed the story that fit their narrative of a future democratic loss in the midterms.  

June 21st Robert Hubbell reported that “Well, it turns out that one of the two races on which the breathless reporting was based has flipped the first and second-place finishers as mail ballots have been counted. Billionaire Rick Caruso has been overtaken by Rep. Karen Bass by 6 percentage points. (When the NYTimes ran its story, Caruso was leading by 5 points—and 11-point swing!) 

       What about Biden’s 40% favorability rating?  Polls tend to measure people’s discontent, and voters tend to bash whomever is in charge when they feel bad.  This could hurt turnout.  A suggestion: promote the coming election as a choice for the future – not a referendum on the past.  (works for both criticism on the Right and the Left)

But I buried the lede…..

The consensus narrative of the media is that historically, the party in power loses control of Congress.  Yes, that is true, but that belies the unprecedented nature of current events:

1. On June 24th, 130 million women lost their right to bodily autonomy and now have less rights than a corpse.  (Even dead bodies aren’t required to give up organs to preserve someone else’s life.)

2. In June, the Radicalized SCOTUS also:

• Overturned NY’s concealed carry law
• Overturned MIRANDA rights

3. The January 6th hearings are laying bare the evidence of the attempted coup.  “Heroes” like Rusty Bowers, held the line against illegality last time, but have made it clear that they support all trump’s policies and would vote for him again.

4. The massacres of Uvalde and Buffalo have fallen before a midterm. Maybe this time, the memory of those murdered will be fresh in the voter’s minds.

5. The attacks on LGTBQ, especially Trans people, are widespread and vicious.  The Texas Republican party’s platform states that “homosexuality is an aberant lifestyle.”  SCOTUS published Thomas’ concurring opinion attacking contraceptives and LGTBQ rights. (Homosexual sex was criminalized until 2003, so it’s not just marriage equality at stake.)

So what must we do to win the midterms?

Remain steadfast.  Continue the work to promote Democratic candidates and get out the vote.  If you have taken a break, that’s good, it’s time to jump back in now. The largest voting block right now?  Independents and Did Not Vote.  The smallest group is Republicans. So there is plenty of room to win.

Start Talking.  Talk with everyone you know. They say they don’t “do politics”?  Tell them this is about values. They say it is too stressful?  Tell them to imagine what will happen if they do nothing. They say they are mad because (fill in passion here) and Biden/Congress hasn’t done anything?  Well guess what: it will only get worse if we don’t keep Democrats in office.  Climate Change?  Student Loans? Citizens United?  Medicare for All?  Police Reform?  Racial Justice?  Allowing Republicans back in control will be a disaster.

Take Action!  Make a plan and take action.  Phone.  Text.  Write. Donate. Remember, we did it in 2018, and we did it again in 2020. 

Sitting on the sidelines will guarantee our loss.  

We must go all in now.  It’s time to take action.